Fantastic news in every sense! No, Big Brother hasn't been decommissioned, but rather Roger Federer has been - temporarily at least - and more importantly I've somehow managed to make a profit (albeit a small one) from a hitherto disastrous week in Montreal.
Yes, Sunday evening was pleasurable indeed, as Novak Djokovic took out Roger Federer in a final set tie-break and concomitantly almost doubled my bank. A touch ironic perhaps, as the young Serb had started my recent slide with a defeat in Umag and I'm pleased that I kept faith in his ability and had a few points on him at 14.0 before the Roddick match.
The final itself was a wonderful game, with Djokovic going a break up, only to be pegged back by Federer, who served for the set at 6-5 before Djokovic broke back and set up a breaker in which he prevailed by 7-2. Federer took the second set by 6-2, before service breaks were traded until we reached the inevitable final set shoot out. Djokovic went 6-1 up and held his nerve to earn himself a 7-6 (2), 2-6, 7-6 (2) victory and his second ATP Masters title of the year.
Federer is now without a tournament win from his last three hard court events and Djokovic has come in to 8.4 to win the US Open with Betfair. Fortunately for me, I have been telling anyone that would listen that the Serb was worth an ante post flutter and my 35.0 bet is looking a wise investment currently.
As for Federer, he will start the Western & Southern Masters today in Cincinatti at an easier to back 1.75 and appears to have the best of the draw in which to try and compensate for his recent lack of hard court success.
Speaking of which, I've been analysing the draw for the $1,000,000 'perfect bracket' competition, which is in operation for this tournament, but the chances of anyone predicting each and every match for the entire event correctly are surely zero. It has helped me to break down the draw though, so I am having a small wager of half a point or one point on Paul-Henri Mathieu at 150.0 and a couple of maybe's at decent prices.
Mathieu has been playing superbly well recently and 150.0 in my view is a very generous lay by someone on Betfair. The best price with the other layers is 80.0 and the way that the Frenchman has been playing of late makes my pick a bit of value.
I also think that James Blake is due a good week and I've managed to find myself a layer for Blake at 70.0, which again is almost twice the price he is trading at elsewhere. The injury that forced him out of Montreal wasn't a serious one and the New Yorker can go well here given his decent draw and an assumption of fitness.
Also worth a consideration are two mercurial talents who are fresh and ready to go this week in Fernando Gonzalez and Richard Gasquet. I've had half a point on the Chilean at 70.0 to overcome his recent poor form and the same goes for Gasquet who owes me a performance after his match point capitulation to Verdasco last week.
All of this may be futile of course, as Federer will be gunning to make up for his Montreal defeat and his defeat here last year to Andy Murray, who Federer may face again in this year's last 32. Murray, however has a tough first round against Marcos Baghdatis and the Cypriot will start favourite, given the Scot's dodgy wrist.
As far as today's first round matches are concerned, there may be a little bit of value to be had by backing Jurgen Melzer to beat Ivo Karlovic at the current odds of 2.5. The Austrian holds a career 4-0 record over the giant Croatian and has won each of the nine sets that the two have played, including at this years Australian Open, so Melzer clearly has a handle on that huge serve of Karlovic's. A two point win would be todays bet of the day and it could also be worth chancing Amer Delic to continue Ivan Ljubicic's poor run of form at the current odds of 2.75 in what will probably be a battle of the serves.
Odds-on backers will be looking at Chela to beat Henman as the lock of the day at around 1.5 and even given Chela's average run of form, he will surely be too good for an on the slide Henman.
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