Monday, 20 August 2007

Cincinnati wrap and New Haven advice

It appears that on the evidence of today's statistics that Police Community Support Officers solve one crime every six years - this is around the same timescale that James Blake takes a set off Roger Federer. At least he's got another two years to go to beat the Support Officer's record - standing as he is with the unenviable head-to-head stats after last night of 1-19 in sets against the Swiss legend; and the one was a tie-break!

I fear it might take Blake more than two years on last night's evidence, as my chances of trading my sizable profit on Blake disappeared after about five minutes in Cincinnati.

I had managed to find an adjacent bar with a tv with Sky Sports Extra on it at the wedding on Saturday in which to watch the last knockings of the Hewitt v Fed semi and so witnessed any real chances of success this week disappear, along with the Aussie's chances, as Hewitt blasted five unforced errors in a row in the deciding breaker. Fortunately I didn't have far to travel for a stiff brandy.

Blake in typical style kept my hopes alive later on by beating Davydenko for the sixth time running before producing an awful performance against Federer to lose for the seventh time running against Fed.

Blake was so bad in the final that Fed let him win a service game which contained four double faults, just to give the crowd something to shout about. It really was awful and Federer didn't trade much above 1.25 for the duration of the match.

So, despite some decent match bets, it was a pretty mediocre week and one where a 78.5 runner-up meant nothing in the end. There should be some sort of handicap system applied to Federer - it's too easy for him at the moment.

On to New Haven, Connecticut then and another of the US Open Series events and this week sees a bunch of clay courters trying their luck on the hard, along with top seeds Davydenko and Blake and the draw for this event seems very lopsided.

The top half contains, Davydenko, Blake, Mathieu, Clement, Ginepri, Nieminen amongst other specialist hard courters, whilst the bottom half houses the likes of Volandri, Acasuso, Starace, Montanes, Berlocq and Garcia Lopez and appears to be a rerun of some hideous minor clay court event.

So, obviously this is the value side for an outright bet and I've had a couple of wagers generously matched by Betfair punters overnight - these being 70 on Dominic Hrbaty and 22 on Ivo Karlovic.

Hrbaty has shown the odd sign of life in the last few weeks and is in the weaker section of the draw, where the highest seeds are Tommy Robredo, who Hrbaty beat 6-2 6-4 in Montreal last week and Volandri who I think I could beat on a hard court. 70 might look generous in a few days time - he is currently on offer at 38.

Karlovic also has a fairly straightforward draw and won't face anyone too taxing until a possible quarter-final with probably David Ferrer, who he has never met, so 22 is an ok price on the big man for this minor event.

I'm currently waiting for a price on Mario Ancic, who had to qualify and has been placed in Hrbaty's quarter, to appear and I may have an interest on the Croatian, depending on the price of course. He certainly has the quality to win this kind of tournament and is getting back towards full fitness after a long lay-off with illness.

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