Day four of the Cincinnati Masters was a very enjoyable if not completely profitable one and I'm in a chipper mood about the possibilities available for the remainder of the week.
My lay of the day - Carlos Moya at 1.6 - did eventually come through to win in three sets against Juan Martin Del Potro, but the match was easily close enough for a spot of trading and the Spanish veteran was on offer in excess of 4.4 at times in this match, so a small profit was the outcome of what appeared to be an exhausting encounter in 100 degree temperatures in Ohio.
My other advice - that of David Ferrer to trouble Roddick at 3.95 - turned out to be sound as the Barcelona supporting Valencian dealt with the still vastly overrated Roddick in straight sets and it always brings me pleasure to win money at the expense of the worlds 65th best ranked service returner.
Sadly for me, my spot of Schadenfreude with Roddick resulted in some bad karma, or some misplaced trust in Baghdatis, whichever way you look at it and the portly Cypriot cost me in his match with Roger Federer.
The Swiss maestro looked hot, bothered and ineffective in the first set and Baghdatis looked a bit of value at 3.0 when serving for the set, so I pounced on it like a photographer who had just caught site of Paris Hilton and Lindsey Lohan drunk in a bar and consequently, my fortunes took a dive not dissimilar to that of the two ladies in question. Baghdatis choked in grand style - throwing away four set points and the match was gone right there.
Make mental note... Baghdatis added to my list of chokers, along with Gasquet, Mathieu, Schnyder, Mayer etc etc.
So that cost me, as did an investment on JC Ferrero late last night. I figured that James Blake would at some point trade at odds against in this match and so I layed him when he broke Ferrero in the first set. How wrong I was, as for once Blake kept up his blistering start to take the Spaniard out by 6-4 6-1 and didn't face a break point, therefore offering no way of recompense.
This is not a problem though, as I'm holding an outright investment on Blake at 78.5 for the tournament and at the moment it's looking good. Blake is down to 16 for the event currently and is a 1.4 shot to progress against Sam Querrey tonight. Should Blake win that one, he will face either Davydenko (5-0 lifetime to Blake) or Ferrer in the semis.
I know I'm going to regret this, but today's value has to be Ferrer at 2.12 currently in that quarter final with Davydenko. The Valencian is in good form on serve this week and should be in good heart after the Roddick win, so I'm all over the 2.12 as bet of the day today.
Federer looked really uncomfortable in the heat yesterday and surely it's too much to hope for an Almagro victory today, purely because they will face off in the height of the sun?
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