‘You live by the sword, you die by the sword’ is an oft used maxim that is relevant today as I count my losses from a twin tie-break defeat on a day of shocks and surprises in Cincinnati.
I was willing enough to accept a Jurgen Melzer victory over Ivo Karlovic the other day by way of two breakers, so I suppose I have to be magnanimous enough to accept defeat by the exact same method for Arnaud Clement last night in his loss to Tomas Berdych.
A first bet of the day defeat in four left me rather bemused and that feeling intensified when Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Richard Gasquet and Fernando Gonzalez amongst other seeded players, all departed Ohio with their hopes of success extinguished.
This shouldn’t come as a major surprise, as this event has a tendency of throwing out some odd results and champions and this is why I backed a bunch of long shots at the start of the tournament.
I wasn’t expecting another such gutless display from Gasquet though and he now joins fellow countryman Gael Monfils on my banned list. I refuse to squander another penny of my hard earned on that spineless delinquent. Gasquet retired after going through the motions for a set and a bit against Hewitt before retiring with a blister on his hand, which begs the question why he even started the match or entered the event with his hand in that condition.
Anyway, he’s out and so is Gonzalez, who can’t buy a win at the moment. He looked all at sea against JC Ferrero and went down in straight sets, thus opening up the draw for my surviving tip, James Blake, to make progress. Defeat for Gonzalez and Nadal has given Blake the chance to reach the semis, but first Blake must pass nemesis JC Ferrero, who has a 3-0 lifetime over the New Yorker, including two wins here in Cincinnati.
Having Blake as your last hope in a tournament is a poor position to be in. I can only liken it to standing around in baggage claim, hopefully looking at the carousel, whilst all the time knowing that you’re in for a whole world of pain, as the realisation of another disappointment dawns. Blake v Ferrero is at midnight tonight and I’m not expecting much sleep.
Federer meanwhile went about his business as usual and is now 1.36 for the tournament. Perhaps only the stifling heat in Ohio can stop him now, as he faces just Baghdatis and probably Hewitt en route to another final.
On to today and the only ties that interest me are Juan Martin Del Potro against Carlos Moya and David Ferrer against Andy Roddick.
I think the value bet of the day would have to be Del Potro to end Moya’s hopes at 2.7 or thereabouts. The Argentine won their only meeting – in straight sets on hard in Mumbai – and I wouldn’t back Moya as favourite against many players, although he’s in half decent touch right now. A two-point win on Del Potro would be the recommendation.
Once again, people seem to be over excited by Roddick’s chances here, but the guy is so limited it’s untrue and if Ferrer is on one of his good days he has a chance and is certainly too big at 3.6
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