Day 3 at Flushing Meadows promised to be an interesting one. The prospect of Tim Henman’s finale, along with the appearances of Henin, Federer, the Williams sisters, Gonzalez and Nadal to complement a couple of crazy Russians, meant that this was surely the day of the tournament thus far.
No question for first destination of the day – Louis Armstrong for Marat Safin v Frank Dancevic for what looked an interesting match-up.
The mental Russian has recently availed himself of the services of yet another new coach in an attempt to make the most of his incredible talent. It’s a poisoned chalice of a job that has proven beyond the likes of Lungdren, Wilander, Volkov etc and surely a psychologist is more the requirement these days.
I was expecting the usual Safin histrionics, but the only real explosion came from a loud speaker that inexplicably blew up during match point and Dancevic got a first serve out of it and clawed his way back, but the stay of execution was temporary, as Safin took the breaker for a 7-5, 7-6, 7-6 victory.
After a bit of court hopping, it was soon time for the second of the crazy Russians and Dmitry Tursunov’s attempt to finish our Tim’s tour career on Armstrong.
Henman started well, getting a high percentage of first serves in, to the delight of the pro-Tim crowd and I couldn’t resist possibly my final ever wager on a Henman match. I decided to lay a Tursunov 3-0 victory and hoped for one last roar from the Tiger.
It was a bright start from the Brit and the cries of ‘Come on Tim’ were ringing out around Armstrong, as he ghosted in at the net to earn a break point at 4-3. Could he do it? You bet he could – a Tursunov pass went wide and Henman had the chance to serve for the set.
Typically though, Tim started with a double fault, but improved to earn a set point and my cash was almost earned. The Russian snuffed it out and then came up with an amazing pass to earn a break point. I’ll miss this kind of drama when Tim goes, I’m sure. Back to deuce and a big serve gave Tim another set point. This time surely? Yeeess!! Great volley and I’m in profit for once on a Henman match.
Of course, he lost the second set by 6-3, but he came roaring back in the third to go an early break up, before Tursunov broke back immediately. This was turning out to be much more competitive than many people thought and Henman earned himself another break, with the help of some dodgy serving by Tursunov and he served it out for a two sets to one lead.
Tursunov was rattled by some vintage Henman play and they traded breaks in the fourth before Tim took at 5-3 lead. We’ve been here many times over the years with Henman, but would this time be different? Remarkably, yes and he served it out comfortably for a stunning victory.
No time for celebration though, as I nipped over to Court 13 to see Fernando Gonzalez in trouble against Teimuraz Gabashvili, down by a set and a break and looking on his way out. Indeed, he lost the second set to the Russian, despite a vociferous band of Chilean supporters cheering him on.
Anyone familiar with Gabashvili will know that he’s not the most handsome of men and bears more than a passing resemblance to 70’s comedy legend, Marty Feldman. The joke appeared to be on Gonzalez though, until he cranked up that big forehand and took the third set with the aid of a very dubious line call that didn’t exactly have Gabashvili rolling in the aisles. It then turned into a classic, with the Russian having the last laugh - coming through in five hugely entertaining sets.
No respite for me though and I was in danger of contracting DVT due to the fact that I hadn’t moved from the sofa for about six hours, with still another four to go, but I had Serena Williams to watch next and then Federer.
Williams won comfortably, without hitting top gear. The best moment of that match was when a disheartened Maria Elena Camerin, after failing to reach a drop shot, executed a perfect right-footed volley, narrowly missing an incredulous Williams.
As for Federer, well he entered the building dressed from head to toe in all black, a la Mike Tyson and 23 minutes later, it was first set done, curtains for Capdeville and bedtime for me.
So, not a bad day betting-wise - a nice bit of trading on Gaba v Gonzo put me in profit and I needed it after yesterday's disaster.
Thursday, 30 August 2007
Wednesday, 29 August 2007
US Open Day 2 - a slight Querrey
If Day 1 could be described as being entertaining and profitable, Day 2 started out in the exact opposite fashion.
After much deliberation over the many interesting looking match-ups on offer, I for some bizarre reason, decided upon Ivo Karlovic v Arnaud Clement as my first match of choice, out on ‘lucky’ court 11.
Four tedious hours later, I was put out of my misery and into profit, having layed Karlovic in a single and multiple, but I was left musing about what better I could have put those fours hours to? Creosoting the shed was one offer from the forums, which was apposite.
The sole point of entertainment in the match was when Clement returned one of Ivo’s bombs by bending down into a squat and wafting the ball from off his nose and back at the feet of a stunned Karlovic, who fluffed the volley. That was in the first set – enough said.
Karlo is one of those players about whom everything is dull. The all white clothing, the lack of emotion, the deliberate, slouched gait and the one-dimensional game – awful viewing, other than some great returns and passes from Clement.
I was spent and the day got worse when I switched to Grandstand and watched in horror as the second part of my double went down without a whimper. Sam Querrey, hang your head in shame for a disgraceful effort in a straight sets stuffing by of all people, Stefan Koubek!
This is Querrey’s home slam and he was in great form coming into this event, so to go down 7-6, 6-1, 6-1 was pathetic; even the crowd on Grandstand were stunned into silence by his gutless display against a journeyman whose best effort in eight starts is a 3rd round appearance. Not that I lost much money on it of course.
It comes to something when you have to rely on Marcos Baghdatis’ cafeteria buddy, David Nalbandian for entertainment, but this is what I was reduced to and the slimline Argentine didn’t disappoint.
He was facing Ivan Navarro Pastor – the hairiest man to take to the courts since Pete Sampras retired and the crowd were behind the Spaniard from the start, for reasons best known to themselves.
Nalbandian annoyed the spectators by walloping a ball at a ball boy after twice double faulting and then attempting to use hawkeye on a court that doesn’t have it on a ball that was clearly inches out. They don’t approve of that sort of thing in NY – unless you’re a New Yorker of course.
The Spaniard’s number was pretty much up from the first set when he twice had the trainer performing a painful looking piece of physio on him and perhaps it was his bravery that endeared him to the crowd. Whatever, they were all-in for Navarro Pastor and he started to milk it in the third set breaker, but the theatrics merely produced a double fault from him and the end of a competitive encounter was nigh.
Meanwhile on Arthur Ashe, Maria Sharapova turned up in her red sequined evening dress for her match with Roberta Vinci. She obviously didn’t intend hanging around long en route to her night’s social activities and so it proved – Sharapova almost winning by way of the dreaded double bagel, 6-0, 6-1.
This was a mismatch of epic proportions and Vinci must have wished she was out on court 15, away from the spotlight, as Sharapova ruthlessly took the diminutive Italian apart.
Vinci came out with the Mick Channon reverse windmill arm celebration after avoiding the double bagel, but the joy was short lived.
Finally, the day ended as it had begun – with a bit of big-serving tedium and A-Rod didn’t disappoint with his usual one-dimensional display. The clueless Roddick almost lost the first set to Justin Gimelstob and after a set of that and the sight of Jimmy Connors’ awful white suit, I called it a night.
So, after a great Day 1, a terrible Day 2 followed and it's all thanks to you Sam Querrey - I'll remember you for this one, son!
After much deliberation over the many interesting looking match-ups on offer, I for some bizarre reason, decided upon Ivo Karlovic v Arnaud Clement as my first match of choice, out on ‘lucky’ court 11.
Four tedious hours later, I was put out of my misery and into profit, having layed Karlovic in a single and multiple, but I was left musing about what better I could have put those fours hours to? Creosoting the shed was one offer from the forums, which was apposite.
The sole point of entertainment in the match was when Clement returned one of Ivo’s bombs by bending down into a squat and wafting the ball from off his nose and back at the feet of a stunned Karlovic, who fluffed the volley. That was in the first set – enough said.
Karlo is one of those players about whom everything is dull. The all white clothing, the lack of emotion, the deliberate, slouched gait and the one-dimensional game – awful viewing, other than some great returns and passes from Clement.
I was spent and the day got worse when I switched to Grandstand and watched in horror as the second part of my double went down without a whimper. Sam Querrey, hang your head in shame for a disgraceful effort in a straight sets stuffing by of all people, Stefan Koubek!
This is Querrey’s home slam and he was in great form coming into this event, so to go down 7-6, 6-1, 6-1 was pathetic; even the crowd on Grandstand were stunned into silence by his gutless display against a journeyman whose best effort in eight starts is a 3rd round appearance. Not that I lost much money on it of course.
It comes to something when you have to rely on Marcos Baghdatis’ cafeteria buddy, David Nalbandian for entertainment, but this is what I was reduced to and the slimline Argentine didn’t disappoint.
He was facing Ivan Navarro Pastor – the hairiest man to take to the courts since Pete Sampras retired and the crowd were behind the Spaniard from the start, for reasons best known to themselves.
Nalbandian annoyed the spectators by walloping a ball at a ball boy after twice double faulting and then attempting to use hawkeye on a court that doesn’t have it on a ball that was clearly inches out. They don’t approve of that sort of thing in NY – unless you’re a New Yorker of course.
The Spaniard’s number was pretty much up from the first set when he twice had the trainer performing a painful looking piece of physio on him and perhaps it was his bravery that endeared him to the crowd. Whatever, they were all-in for Navarro Pastor and he started to milk it in the third set breaker, but the theatrics merely produced a double fault from him and the end of a competitive encounter was nigh.
Meanwhile on Arthur Ashe, Maria Sharapova turned up in her red sequined evening dress for her match with Roberta Vinci. She obviously didn’t intend hanging around long en route to her night’s social activities and so it proved – Sharapova almost winning by way of the dreaded double bagel, 6-0, 6-1.
This was a mismatch of epic proportions and Vinci must have wished she was out on court 15, away from the spotlight, as Sharapova ruthlessly took the diminutive Italian apart.
Vinci came out with the Mick Channon reverse windmill arm celebration after avoiding the double bagel, but the joy was short lived.
Finally, the day ended as it had begun – with a bit of big-serving tedium and A-Rod didn’t disappoint with his usual one-dimensional display. The clueless Roddick almost lost the first set to Justin Gimelstob and after a set of that and the sight of Jimmy Connors’ awful white suit, I called it a night.
So, after a great Day 1, a terrible Day 2 followed and it's all thanks to you Sam Querrey - I'll remember you for this one, son!
Monday, 27 August 2007
It's here at last - US Open Day 1
At last, after all the hype and prep tournaments are over, the final slam of the year has begun and what better way to start than by laying a few multiples, having a maximum bet of the day and lay of the day and settling down to watch the action.
Having layed big serving leftie, Chris Guccione, as part of a multiple, I thought I'd start the day's viewing with the Aussie’s match against the potential rising young star of US tennis, Donald Young.
There was a bumper crowd out on Court 11 for this one on a sunny New York morning and as usual in Flushing, the crowd were more than a touch partisan. The normal questionable behaviour was in evidence...shouting at inappropriate moments, cheering errors etc and this is what makes the US Open what it is and this was all at 11 a.m. The umpire had to step in as early as the first set when a Guccione first serve found the net at a crucial moment to the delight of one spectator. Roll on the night matches.
This was the first time that I had seen Young in action and he looks a decent young player and took the big Aussie down comfortably, even after losing a first set breaker and ran through the next three sets by 6-3, 6-2 and 6-3 and my multiple lay was in.
Next up was an energy sapping four setter over on Louis Armstrong, with a rather rotund Marcos Baghdatis taking on Belorussian beast, Max Mirnyi and the Cypriot is surely the oldest-looking 22 year old in sports, other than possibly Arjen Robben. His apparent lack of fitness told in the end, as Mirnyi ran out the winner by coming back from 1-5 down in the fourth set breaker to take out the number 18 seed, who will doubtless need to indulge in a comfort feed to get over this loss.
Most bad tempered match of the day was always likely to be Kiefer v Spadea on Grandstand and so it transpired, as Vinny - having lost the first set - got a bad call, which set him off on a rant that got worse when he got another bad call to go a break down in the second. Cue lots of juice-bottle throwing from Spadea and boos for the umpire from the pro-Vinny crowd. I'm guessing there's no hawk-eye on Grandstand, then.
As usual, Kiefer was muttering away psychotically to himself down the other end and you would need a degree in German profanity to understand a lot of it. When Kiefer served for the second set at 5-4 and threw in three double faults he went strangely quiet, but by contrast you didn't need to be a great lip reader to understand Spadea's words when he was walloped 7-1 in the resulting breaker, before surrendering meekly in the third set.
This was Spadea's 15th US Open and having never made it past the 4th round, he is like an American version of Jeremy Bates - you knew he was half decent but you always hoped he would win matches rather than expecting him to.
Speaking of strops, it's not often you see laid back Finn, Jarko Nieminen, smash a racquet and hit the umpire in the kidneys with a service return, but then again he's never faced the walking service machine that is John Isner before.
The Finn simply couldn't break Isner and by the time he'd seen the thirtieth ace fly past him, he'd had enough and my second multiple lay came in as Isner took it 6-7, 7-6, 7-6, 6-4.
My maximum bet and maximum lay both involved retirements, one to my detriment and the other to my advantage. Max bet Gilles Simon was two sets up and cruising against Alexander Waske, when the Austrian retired, so I collected earlier than expected on that one. However, my max lay - Seb Grosjean - perplexingly took Paul Goldstein apart in the first two sets, so I guessed something was wrong and sure enough Goldstein retired.
Elsewhere, Paul Henri-Mathieu again threw away a two set lead, this time to Fernando Verdasco and the Frenchman certainly has form in this area as French Davis Cup fans will no doubt recall.
An entertaining and profitable Day 1 then... roll on Day 2.
Having layed big serving leftie, Chris Guccione, as part of a multiple, I thought I'd start the day's viewing with the Aussie’s match against the potential rising young star of US tennis, Donald Young.
There was a bumper crowd out on Court 11 for this one on a sunny New York morning and as usual in Flushing, the crowd were more than a touch partisan. The normal questionable behaviour was in evidence...shouting at inappropriate moments, cheering errors etc and this is what makes the US Open what it is and this was all at 11 a.m. The umpire had to step in as early as the first set when a Guccione first serve found the net at a crucial moment to the delight of one spectator. Roll on the night matches.
This was the first time that I had seen Young in action and he looks a decent young player and took the big Aussie down comfortably, even after losing a first set breaker and ran through the next three sets by 6-3, 6-2 and 6-3 and my multiple lay was in.
Next up was an energy sapping four setter over on Louis Armstrong, with a rather rotund Marcos Baghdatis taking on Belorussian beast, Max Mirnyi and the Cypriot is surely the oldest-looking 22 year old in sports, other than possibly Arjen Robben. His apparent lack of fitness told in the end, as Mirnyi ran out the winner by coming back from 1-5 down in the fourth set breaker to take out the number 18 seed, who will doubtless need to indulge in a comfort feed to get over this loss.
Most bad tempered match of the day was always likely to be Kiefer v Spadea on Grandstand and so it transpired, as Vinny - having lost the first set - got a bad call, which set him off on a rant that got worse when he got another bad call to go a break down in the second. Cue lots of juice-bottle throwing from Spadea and boos for the umpire from the pro-Vinny crowd. I'm guessing there's no hawk-eye on Grandstand, then.
As usual, Kiefer was muttering away psychotically to himself down the other end and you would need a degree in German profanity to understand a lot of it. When Kiefer served for the second set at 5-4 and threw in three double faults he went strangely quiet, but by contrast you didn't need to be a great lip reader to understand Spadea's words when he was walloped 7-1 in the resulting breaker, before surrendering meekly in the third set.
This was Spadea's 15th US Open and having never made it past the 4th round, he is like an American version of Jeremy Bates - you knew he was half decent but you always hoped he would win matches rather than expecting him to.
Speaking of strops, it's not often you see laid back Finn, Jarko Nieminen, smash a racquet and hit the umpire in the kidneys with a service return, but then again he's never faced the walking service machine that is John Isner before.
The Finn simply couldn't break Isner and by the time he'd seen the thirtieth ace fly past him, he'd had enough and my second multiple lay came in as Isner took it 6-7, 7-6, 7-6, 6-4.
My maximum bet and maximum lay both involved retirements, one to my detriment and the other to my advantage. Max bet Gilles Simon was two sets up and cruising against Alexander Waske, when the Austrian retired, so I collected earlier than expected on that one. However, my max lay - Seb Grosjean - perplexingly took Paul Goldstein apart in the first two sets, so I guessed something was wrong and sure enough Goldstein retired.
Elsewhere, Paul Henri-Mathieu again threw away a two set lead, this time to Fernando Verdasco and the Frenchman certainly has form in this area as French Davis Cup fans will no doubt recall.
An entertaining and profitable Day 1 then... roll on Day 2.
Sunday, 26 August 2007
New Haven wrap
The unusual combination of heavy rain and a giant with a headache cost me a nice little profit in New Haven this weekend.
Under normal circumstances, you would expect Ivo Karlovic to bludgeon his way past Mardy Fish, however on this occasion the exertions of having to play a couple of three setter's back to back the previous day because of the rain, meant that Ivo didn't really feel very well, bless him.
So, once Karlovic lost the first set on a breaker (no, really), there was no way back and the bedraggled looking Croatian succumbed meekly in straight sets, citing a headache as his excuse for a lethargic effort in defeat.
So, not much in the way of profit this week, thanks to a lack of Nurofen in New Haven and James Blake went on to claim his tenth ATP Tour title with a straightforward victory in the final over his mate Fish.
In the women's event, my US Open tip, Svetlana Kuznetsova claimed her first title of the year in unusual fashion, when her opponent, Agnes Szavay, became Svata's third opponent in a row to retire against her.
Szavay had a great tournament though, coming through qualifying to make the finals and she took the first set against Kuznetsova, before a back injury forced her out after losing the first three games of the second set. She could be one to keep on the right side of for the remainder of the year.
Hopefully, this sort of good fortune will continue for Sveta the whole way through the US Open which starts tomorrow.
Under normal circumstances, you would expect Ivo Karlovic to bludgeon his way past Mardy Fish, however on this occasion the exertions of having to play a couple of three setter's back to back the previous day because of the rain, meant that Ivo didn't really feel very well, bless him.
So, once Karlovic lost the first set on a breaker (no, really), there was no way back and the bedraggled looking Croatian succumbed meekly in straight sets, citing a headache as his excuse for a lethargic effort in defeat.
So, not much in the way of profit this week, thanks to a lack of Nurofen in New Haven and James Blake went on to claim his tenth ATP Tour title with a straightforward victory in the final over his mate Fish.
In the women's event, my US Open tip, Svetlana Kuznetsova claimed her first title of the year in unusual fashion, when her opponent, Agnes Szavay, became Svata's third opponent in a row to retire against her.
Szavay had a great tournament though, coming through qualifying to make the finals and she took the first set against Kuznetsova, before a back injury forced her out after losing the first three games of the second set. She could be one to keep on the right side of for the remainder of the year.
Hopefully, this sort of good fortune will continue for Sveta the whole way through the US Open which starts tomorrow.
Friday, 24 August 2007
New Haven - A busy day
The recent loss of a day's play due to rain led to the main protagonists in the Pilot Pen having to play their third round matches and quarter final matches on the same day, leading to some surprising results and the odd choke.
My outright bet, Ivo Karlovic bludgeoned his way through to the quarters, despite losing the first set to Thomas Johansson and set up a meeting with Igor Andreev, who also came from behind to take care of David Ferrer.
The most profitable match for me came courtesy of a timely and not entirely unexpected choke by Agustin Calleri, who wasted three match points on serve against James Blake and who I layed at 1.02. Blake went on to win the set and ran through the next for a comeback win.
Another nice little profit was gained on the Fernando Verdasco v Jarko Nieminen 3rd round match, when neither player could hold serve in the first set - Verdasco finally holding one to take the set. Nieminen came back to win the second and a nice match for trading ensued.
My lay of the day was Tommy Robredo at 1.72 against Stanislas Wawrinka, who had been playing well in wins over Ancic and Monfils and who had easily too much for the Spanish wannabe model in a straight sets victory.
The quarter finals took place at around 6 o clock local time after a few hours respite for the players and Ivo Karlovic didn't seem adversely affected by the extra toil, serving at an incredible 92% first service points won in a final set breaker victory over Igor Andreev.
The Croatian behemoth fired 28 aces past Andreev and didn't face a break point in the match, despite being taken the distance and big Ivo will fancy his chances of reaching another final today, when facing Mardy Fish (4-0 h2h Karlovic).
Today's other semi will see Blake take on Paul-Henri Mathieu for the first time, but I'm happy with my money on Karlovic for the title, assuming that yesterday hasn't exhausted him.
My outright bet, Ivo Karlovic bludgeoned his way through to the quarters, despite losing the first set to Thomas Johansson and set up a meeting with Igor Andreev, who also came from behind to take care of David Ferrer.
The most profitable match for me came courtesy of a timely and not entirely unexpected choke by Agustin Calleri, who wasted three match points on serve against James Blake and who I layed at 1.02. Blake went on to win the set and ran through the next for a comeback win.
Another nice little profit was gained on the Fernando Verdasco v Jarko Nieminen 3rd round match, when neither player could hold serve in the first set - Verdasco finally holding one to take the set. Nieminen came back to win the second and a nice match for trading ensued.
My lay of the day was Tommy Robredo at 1.72 against Stanislas Wawrinka, who had been playing well in wins over Ancic and Monfils and who had easily too much for the Spanish wannabe model in a straight sets victory.
The quarter finals took place at around 6 o clock local time after a few hours respite for the players and Ivo Karlovic didn't seem adversely affected by the extra toil, serving at an incredible 92% first service points won in a final set breaker victory over Igor Andreev.
The Croatian behemoth fired 28 aces past Andreev and didn't face a break point in the match, despite being taken the distance and big Ivo will fancy his chances of reaching another final today, when facing Mardy Fish (4-0 h2h Karlovic).
Today's other semi will see Blake take on Paul-Henri Mathieu for the first time, but I'm happy with my money on Karlovic for the title, assuming that yesterday hasn't exhausted him.
Thursday, 23 August 2007
US Open advice
The US Open draw is out and once again the value bets lie in the womens tournament, where a very lopsided draw gives an excellent opportunity.
With Justine Henin, the Williams sisters, Jelena Jankovic and Ana Ivanovic all housed in the top half of the draw, it makes sense to make a dash for the exchanges and get on former champ, Svetlana Kuznetsova at around 40.
The Russian has a dream draw, with only Nadia Petrova of any note in her quarter and Sveta holds a 3-1 head-to-head record against her. Presuming Kuznetsova wins that one, she is seeded to face Maria Sharapova, (3-3 head-to-head) but it is far from certain that Sharapova will reach that stage bearing her recent injury problems in mind.
Sveta has had injury concerns of her own recently, but these fears have been allayed by her appearance in the Pilot Pen this week and the 50 that I managed to find on Betfair a couple of days ago is looking very attractive now.
At the head of the market, there are injury concerns over Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova and both Venus Williams and Justine Henin have won just one title each in eight starts.
There is nothing as seemingly straightforward about the men's market, but I'm sitting pretty with an ante post bet on Novak Djokovic at 36 from a month ago and I still believe he is the value even now at 10.
The young Serb has a tricky opener against Mario Ancic and then another difficult one awaits in the form of Radek Stepanek in the next round, but Djokovic did beat Roddick, Nadal and Federer to win the ATP Masters event in Montreal and these early tests may prove beneficial.
Elsewhere, Federer has his usual relaxed start, facing qualifiers in the first two rounds and then the likes of probably Nieminen or Isner, before Gasquet or Ferrero and then most likely Andy Roddick and some observers are calling that a difficult draw! Utter nonsense and Federer is guaranteed to reach the final with only Davydenko to add to the list above in the semi's.
I honestly cannot see a way that the likes of Roddick, Ferrero etc can take more than a set off the Swiss maestro at best, so given Federer's likely appearance in the championship match, it is worth an each-way bet on Djokovic to reach the final, where he will attempt to stop Federer becoming the first man to win four US Opens in a row since 1925.
There are some huge prices on Betfair about an upset, with the likes of Canas available at 420 and if an outside bet is your bag, then that might represent a bit of value, but I just can't see anyone bar Djokovic taking more than one set from the number one seed.
With Justine Henin, the Williams sisters, Jelena Jankovic and Ana Ivanovic all housed in the top half of the draw, it makes sense to make a dash for the exchanges and get on former champ, Svetlana Kuznetsova at around 40.
The Russian has a dream draw, with only Nadia Petrova of any note in her quarter and Sveta holds a 3-1 head-to-head record against her. Presuming Kuznetsova wins that one, she is seeded to face Maria Sharapova, (3-3 head-to-head) but it is far from certain that Sharapova will reach that stage bearing her recent injury problems in mind.
Sveta has had injury concerns of her own recently, but these fears have been allayed by her appearance in the Pilot Pen this week and the 50 that I managed to find on Betfair a couple of days ago is looking very attractive now.
At the head of the market, there are injury concerns over Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova and both Venus Williams and Justine Henin have won just one title each in eight starts.
There is nothing as seemingly straightforward about the men's market, but I'm sitting pretty with an ante post bet on Novak Djokovic at 36 from a month ago and I still believe he is the value even now at 10.
The young Serb has a tricky opener against Mario Ancic and then another difficult one awaits in the form of Radek Stepanek in the next round, but Djokovic did beat Roddick, Nadal and Federer to win the ATP Masters event in Montreal and these early tests may prove beneficial.
Elsewhere, Federer has his usual relaxed start, facing qualifiers in the first two rounds and then the likes of probably Nieminen or Isner, before Gasquet or Ferrero and then most likely Andy Roddick and some observers are calling that a difficult draw! Utter nonsense and Federer is guaranteed to reach the final with only Davydenko to add to the list above in the semi's.
I honestly cannot see a way that the likes of Roddick, Ferrero etc can take more than a set off the Swiss maestro at best, so given Federer's likely appearance in the championship match, it is worth an each-way bet on Djokovic to reach the final, where he will attempt to stop Federer becoming the first man to win four US Opens in a row since 1925.
There are some huge prices on Betfair about an upset, with the likes of Canas available at 420 and if an outside bet is your bag, then that might represent a bit of value, but I just can't see anyone bar Djokovic taking more than one set from the number one seed.
Wednesday, 22 August 2007
New Haven - A washout
The weather decimated the days play at New Haven yesterday, other than big John Isner overwhelming little Benjamin Becker and James Blake continuing his ownership of Arnaud Clement, there were no matches started on the East Coast.
Assuming the weather clears up sufficiently, I'll be on a treble today of Andreev, Karlovic and Mathieu, which pays 2.4 and all should win without too many dramas, although I'm a little skittish about Andreev v Montanes after the other day.
Having taken care of Clement, Blake looks good to regain the Pilot Pen trophy he won in 2005, but would you want to have too much on Blake at 3.15? I wouldn't trust him at that sort of price.
Looking ahead to the US Open, I've had a look at the womens event, which due to the lack of a Federer or Nadal, offers much better value and I like the look (not physically of course) of Svetlana Kuznetsova, about whom I've had 50 matched on Betfair.
The winner of this in 2004, Svetlana has the game for hard courts and is a great price for a number four seed, given the question marks about the top three in the betting.
Henin has won this title just once in eight attempts and does not carry the same aura about her as she does on clay and as such is no value at all at 3.3, while there are fitness concerns about Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova, both of whom have pulled out of their last events through injury.
Venus Williams also has just one win from eight in this event and is best backed when she's behind in one of the early rounds as she was at Wimbledon. There's no value about her at the current price of 11.
Young guns Jankovic and Ivanovic are under priced too and best looked at when the draw is announced, but my advice would be to find 50's about Kuznetsova before she wins the Pilot Pen.
Assuming the weather clears up sufficiently, I'll be on a treble today of Andreev, Karlovic and Mathieu, which pays 2.4 and all should win without too many dramas, although I'm a little skittish about Andreev v Montanes after the other day.
Having taken care of Clement, Blake looks good to regain the Pilot Pen trophy he won in 2005, but would you want to have too much on Blake at 3.15? I wouldn't trust him at that sort of price.
Looking ahead to the US Open, I've had a look at the womens event, which due to the lack of a Federer or Nadal, offers much better value and I like the look (not physically of course) of Svetlana Kuznetsova, about whom I've had 50 matched on Betfair.
The winner of this in 2004, Svetlana has the game for hard courts and is a great price for a number four seed, given the question marks about the top three in the betting.
Henin has won this title just once in eight attempts and does not carry the same aura about her as she does on clay and as such is no value at all at 3.3, while there are fitness concerns about Serena Williams and Maria Sharapova, both of whom have pulled out of their last events through injury.
Venus Williams also has just one win from eight in this event and is best backed when she's behind in one of the early rounds as she was at Wimbledon. There's no value about her at the current price of 11.
Young guns Jankovic and Ivanovic are under priced too and best looked at when the draw is announced, but my advice would be to find 50's about Kuznetsova before she wins the Pilot Pen.
Tuesday, 21 August 2007
New Haven - The stench rises again
You would have thought that after the furore surrounding the Albert Montanes v Martin Vassallo Arguello match in Poland, coming as it did immediately after Davydenko's effort the previous day, would have perhaps dissuaded Montanes from any questionable activity for a while. Not a chance and his match yesterday in New Haven with Teimuraz Gabashvili was every bit as dodgy as the other two.
Glancing, as is my wont, at the daily matches in the morning I recall that Gabashvili was a 1.4 favourite against Montanes, who was available at around 3.2.
Coming back to this match about ten minutes prior to its start, there had been a huge punt on Montanes, who was now 1.6 and Gabashvili was on the drift at 3.25. Sensing a fix, I dived on Montanes at 1.58 and soon enough, the Spaniard was down to 1.3 and this is all before the match had started.
Albert Montanes is the epitomy of a clay court specialist and his last match on hard was a straight sets defeat against an unknown Israeli in a Challenger in Spain in June. Prior to that, a first round defeat to Arnaud Clement in straight sets in Miami in March, a defeat to Tommy Haas in the first round of the Australian Open in January and the same result in the first round of the US Open last August against Hewitt are the only matches he has played on hard in a year!
This is why he was 3.25 in the morning against Gabashvili - because he's an awful hard court player and yet the match started and Montanes was 1.3 and the Russian 3.6.
The price contunued to tumble on Montanes and people were betting on a straight sets Montanes victory at 1.15 !!
Gabashvili was available at 10 when the Spaniard predictably won the first set and if you wanted Montanes, then 1.05 were the odds of reward. A disgrace and the Russian popped in six double faults just to make sure of a 4-6 4-6 defeat.
I won money on this match - not through talent, but through what appears to be a fixed result and I will be informing the ATP of yet another questionable match. Montanes reward is a second rounder with another player under suspicion in Igor Andreev and I'll be keeping a close eye on this one.
Elsewhere, as I predicted a while back, Tim Henman appears to be making the US Open his tournament swansong and this is a good decision from Tim, as his body can't take any more and he's at the end of the road anyway with just a couple of wins all year.
The former world number four has earnt me a few quid lately and I've enjoyed watching the Wimbledon circus each year, so best wishes to Tim for the future.
As far as competitive tennis matches were concerned yesterday, I made a few quid on Jose Acasuso, Mardy Fish and Luis Horna - the latter two in running, so it was a profitable day yesterday at New Haven. Fortunately for me I didn't get on Ancic outright, as he lost to Wawrinka in the first round and as far as match bets for today go, there's no stand-out wager amongst them, so I'll keep my money in my pocket today.
Glancing, as is my wont, at the daily matches in the morning I recall that Gabashvili was a 1.4 favourite against Montanes, who was available at around 3.2.
Coming back to this match about ten minutes prior to its start, there had been a huge punt on Montanes, who was now 1.6 and Gabashvili was on the drift at 3.25. Sensing a fix, I dived on Montanes at 1.58 and soon enough, the Spaniard was down to 1.3 and this is all before the match had started.
Albert Montanes is the epitomy of a clay court specialist and his last match on hard was a straight sets defeat against an unknown Israeli in a Challenger in Spain in June. Prior to that, a first round defeat to Arnaud Clement in straight sets in Miami in March, a defeat to Tommy Haas in the first round of the Australian Open in January and the same result in the first round of the US Open last August against Hewitt are the only matches he has played on hard in a year!
This is why he was 3.25 in the morning against Gabashvili - because he's an awful hard court player and yet the match started and Montanes was 1.3 and the Russian 3.6.
The price contunued to tumble on Montanes and people were betting on a straight sets Montanes victory at 1.15 !!
Gabashvili was available at 10 when the Spaniard predictably won the first set and if you wanted Montanes, then 1.05 were the odds of reward. A disgrace and the Russian popped in six double faults just to make sure of a 4-6 4-6 defeat.
I won money on this match - not through talent, but through what appears to be a fixed result and I will be informing the ATP of yet another questionable match. Montanes reward is a second rounder with another player under suspicion in Igor Andreev and I'll be keeping a close eye on this one.
Elsewhere, as I predicted a while back, Tim Henman appears to be making the US Open his tournament swansong and this is a good decision from Tim, as his body can't take any more and he's at the end of the road anyway with just a couple of wins all year.
The former world number four has earnt me a few quid lately and I've enjoyed watching the Wimbledon circus each year, so best wishes to Tim for the future.
As far as competitive tennis matches were concerned yesterday, I made a few quid on Jose Acasuso, Mardy Fish and Luis Horna - the latter two in running, so it was a profitable day yesterday at New Haven. Fortunately for me I didn't get on Ancic outright, as he lost to Wawrinka in the first round and as far as match bets for today go, there's no stand-out wager amongst them, so I'll keep my money in my pocket today.
Monday, 20 August 2007
Cincinnati wrap and New Haven advice
It appears that on the evidence of today's statistics that Police Community Support Officers solve one crime every six years - this is around the same timescale that James Blake takes a set off Roger Federer. At least he's got another two years to go to beat the Support Officer's record - standing as he is with the unenviable head-to-head stats after last night of 1-19 in sets against the Swiss legend; and the one was a tie-break!
I fear it might take Blake more than two years on last night's evidence, as my chances of trading my sizable profit on Blake disappeared after about five minutes in Cincinnati.
I had managed to find an adjacent bar with a tv with Sky Sports Extra on it at the wedding on Saturday in which to watch the last knockings of the Hewitt v Fed semi and so witnessed any real chances of success this week disappear, along with the Aussie's chances, as Hewitt blasted five unforced errors in a row in the deciding breaker. Fortunately I didn't have far to travel for a stiff brandy.
Blake in typical style kept my hopes alive later on by beating Davydenko for the sixth time running before producing an awful performance against Federer to lose for the seventh time running against Fed.
Blake was so bad in the final that Fed let him win a service game which contained four double faults, just to give the crowd something to shout about. It really was awful and Federer didn't trade much above 1.25 for the duration of the match.
So, despite some decent match bets, it was a pretty mediocre week and one where a 78.5 runner-up meant nothing in the end. There should be some sort of handicap system applied to Federer - it's too easy for him at the moment.
On to New Haven, Connecticut then and another of the US Open Series events and this week sees a bunch of clay courters trying their luck on the hard, along with top seeds Davydenko and Blake and the draw for this event seems very lopsided.
The top half contains, Davydenko, Blake, Mathieu, Clement, Ginepri, Nieminen amongst other specialist hard courters, whilst the bottom half houses the likes of Volandri, Acasuso, Starace, Montanes, Berlocq and Garcia Lopez and appears to be a rerun of some hideous minor clay court event.
So, obviously this is the value side for an outright bet and I've had a couple of wagers generously matched by Betfair punters overnight - these being 70 on Dominic Hrbaty and 22 on Ivo Karlovic.
Hrbaty has shown the odd sign of life in the last few weeks and is in the weaker section of the draw, where the highest seeds are Tommy Robredo, who Hrbaty beat 6-2 6-4 in Montreal last week and Volandri who I think I could beat on a hard court. 70 might look generous in a few days time - he is currently on offer at 38.
Karlovic also has a fairly straightforward draw and won't face anyone too taxing until a possible quarter-final with probably David Ferrer, who he has never met, so 22 is an ok price on the big man for this minor event.
I'm currently waiting for a price on Mario Ancic, who had to qualify and has been placed in Hrbaty's quarter, to appear and I may have an interest on the Croatian, depending on the price of course. He certainly has the quality to win this kind of tournament and is getting back towards full fitness after a long lay-off with illness.
I fear it might take Blake more than two years on last night's evidence, as my chances of trading my sizable profit on Blake disappeared after about five minutes in Cincinnati.
I had managed to find an adjacent bar with a tv with Sky Sports Extra on it at the wedding on Saturday in which to watch the last knockings of the Hewitt v Fed semi and so witnessed any real chances of success this week disappear, along with the Aussie's chances, as Hewitt blasted five unforced errors in a row in the deciding breaker. Fortunately I didn't have far to travel for a stiff brandy.
Blake in typical style kept my hopes alive later on by beating Davydenko for the sixth time running before producing an awful performance against Federer to lose for the seventh time running against Fed.
Blake was so bad in the final that Fed let him win a service game which contained four double faults, just to give the crowd something to shout about. It really was awful and Federer didn't trade much above 1.25 for the duration of the match.
So, despite some decent match bets, it was a pretty mediocre week and one where a 78.5 runner-up meant nothing in the end. There should be some sort of handicap system applied to Federer - it's too easy for him at the moment.
On to New Haven, Connecticut then and another of the US Open Series events and this week sees a bunch of clay courters trying their luck on the hard, along with top seeds Davydenko and Blake and the draw for this event seems very lopsided.
The top half contains, Davydenko, Blake, Mathieu, Clement, Ginepri, Nieminen amongst other specialist hard courters, whilst the bottom half houses the likes of Volandri, Acasuso, Starace, Montanes, Berlocq and Garcia Lopez and appears to be a rerun of some hideous minor clay court event.
So, obviously this is the value side for an outright bet and I've had a couple of wagers generously matched by Betfair punters overnight - these being 70 on Dominic Hrbaty and 22 on Ivo Karlovic.
Hrbaty has shown the odd sign of life in the last few weeks and is in the weaker section of the draw, where the highest seeds are Tommy Robredo, who Hrbaty beat 6-2 6-4 in Montreal last week and Volandri who I think I could beat on a hard court. 70 might look generous in a few days time - he is currently on offer at 38.
Karlovic also has a fairly straightforward draw and won't face anyone too taxing until a possible quarter-final with probably David Ferrer, who he has never met, so 22 is an ok price on the big man for this minor event.
I'm currently waiting for a price on Mario Ancic, who had to qualify and has been placed in Hrbaty's quarter, to appear and I may have an interest on the Croatian, depending on the price of course. He certainly has the quality to win this kind of tournament and is getting back towards full fitness after a long lay-off with illness.
Saturday, 18 August 2007
Cincinnati, Day 5 - Blake's further progress
Day 5 at the Western & Southern Masters in Cincinnati, Ohio was a bit of a mixed bag, with my bet of the day getting thoroughly beaten, but my outright bet rolls on.
It appears that I underestimated the form of Nikolay Davydenko in this tournament yesterday, but in my defence, I'm betting blind, as I can't use the interactive service until the US Open; the streams are crap and Sky have arbitrarily decided not to broadcast the night matches live until tonight. Therefore my total views of Davydenko this week have been zero. I'm still extremely cynical about the Russian's 'foot injury' and I'm of the opinion that he's about as trustworthy as Tony Blair in full grin mode.
That's the excuses out of the way - now down to business and basically any chance of profit this week boils down to one of two events occurring: -
1) Lleyton Hewitt overcoming a 0-10 recent head-to-head record with the Fed-Express and somehow removing the Swiss legend from the tournament this afternoon.
2) James Blake improving his 5-0 all time head-to-head over Mr Suspicious Betting Patterns to 6-0 tonight.
Frankly, I'll settle for the second event occurring, but Federer has been relatively poor by his own ridiculously high standards this week and even Nicolas Almagro took a set off him yesterday, giving an in-form Lleyton Hewitt a squeak of victory in hopefully boiling temperatures in Cincinnati's early afternoon sunshine.
Hewitt won't get a better chance than this to beat Federer, so I'll be checking the position on Betfair Mobile later on and no doubt simultaneously gravely offending the bride in the process at a wedding that I must attend, which rather thoughtlessly has been scheduled for 3 o' clock on a Saturday afternoon! As usual at these functions, I can foresee a situation arising where I become embroiled against my will in a lengthy conversation with the bride's Uncle Dave right in the middle of a set-point moment.
Meanwhile, James Blake saw off the not entirely unexpected tricky challenge from Sam Querrey in three sets in last night's late match and must be confident of reaching the final and making me some loot.
As the Blake v Davydenko encounter is scheduled for a 1 am start, I should be soundly inebriated by the time I crawl in to watch it and hopefully this will dull the pain of defeat, should it occur. Either that or I'll start trading, fall asleep and leave a big bet up for someone to take, as happened recently in the Isner v Monfils match in Washington.
Blake and Hewitt - I'm counting on you two - don't let me down!
It appears that I underestimated the form of Nikolay Davydenko in this tournament yesterday, but in my defence, I'm betting blind, as I can't use the interactive service until the US Open; the streams are crap and Sky have arbitrarily decided not to broadcast the night matches live until tonight. Therefore my total views of Davydenko this week have been zero. I'm still extremely cynical about the Russian's 'foot injury' and I'm of the opinion that he's about as trustworthy as Tony Blair in full grin mode.
That's the excuses out of the way - now down to business and basically any chance of profit this week boils down to one of two events occurring: -
1) Lleyton Hewitt overcoming a 0-10 recent head-to-head record with the Fed-Express and somehow removing the Swiss legend from the tournament this afternoon.
2) James Blake improving his 5-0 all time head-to-head over Mr Suspicious Betting Patterns to 6-0 tonight.
Frankly, I'll settle for the second event occurring, but Federer has been relatively poor by his own ridiculously high standards this week and even Nicolas Almagro took a set off him yesterday, giving an in-form Lleyton Hewitt a squeak of victory in hopefully boiling temperatures in Cincinnati's early afternoon sunshine.
Hewitt won't get a better chance than this to beat Federer, so I'll be checking the position on Betfair Mobile later on and no doubt simultaneously gravely offending the bride in the process at a wedding that I must attend, which rather thoughtlessly has been scheduled for 3 o' clock on a Saturday afternoon! As usual at these functions, I can foresee a situation arising where I become embroiled against my will in a lengthy conversation with the bride's Uncle Dave right in the middle of a set-point moment.
Meanwhile, James Blake saw off the not entirely unexpected tricky challenge from Sam Querrey in three sets in last night's late match and must be confident of reaching the final and making me some loot.
As the Blake v Davydenko encounter is scheduled for a 1 am start, I should be soundly inebriated by the time I crawl in to watch it and hopefully this will dull the pain of defeat, should it occur. Either that or I'll start trading, fall asleep and leave a big bet up for someone to take, as happened recently in the Isner v Monfils match in Washington.
Blake and Hewitt - I'm counting on you two - don't let me down!
Friday, 17 August 2007
Cincinnati, Day 4 - Blake's progress
Day four of the Cincinnati Masters was a very enjoyable if not completely profitable one and I'm in a chipper mood about the possibilities available for the remainder of the week.
My lay of the day - Carlos Moya at 1.6 - did eventually come through to win in three sets against Juan Martin Del Potro, but the match was easily close enough for a spot of trading and the Spanish veteran was on offer in excess of 4.4 at times in this match, so a small profit was the outcome of what appeared to be an exhausting encounter in 100 degree temperatures in Ohio.
My other advice - that of David Ferrer to trouble Roddick at 3.95 - turned out to be sound as the Barcelona supporting Valencian dealt with the still vastly overrated Roddick in straight sets and it always brings me pleasure to win money at the expense of the worlds 65th best ranked service returner.
Sadly for me, my spot of Schadenfreude with Roddick resulted in some bad karma, or some misplaced trust in Baghdatis, whichever way you look at it and the portly Cypriot cost me in his match with Roger Federer.
The Swiss maestro looked hot, bothered and ineffective in the first set and Baghdatis looked a bit of value at 3.0 when serving for the set, so I pounced on it like a photographer who had just caught site of Paris Hilton and Lindsey Lohan drunk in a bar and consequently, my fortunes took a dive not dissimilar to that of the two ladies in question. Baghdatis choked in grand style - throwing away four set points and the match was gone right there.
Make mental note... Baghdatis added to my list of chokers, along with Gasquet, Mathieu, Schnyder, Mayer etc etc.
So that cost me, as did an investment on JC Ferrero late last night. I figured that James Blake would at some point trade at odds against in this match and so I layed him when he broke Ferrero in the first set. How wrong I was, as for once Blake kept up his blistering start to take the Spaniard out by 6-4 6-1 and didn't face a break point, therefore offering no way of recompense.
This is not a problem though, as I'm holding an outright investment on Blake at 78.5 for the tournament and at the moment it's looking good. Blake is down to 16 for the event currently and is a 1.4 shot to progress against Sam Querrey tonight. Should Blake win that one, he will face either Davydenko (5-0 lifetime to Blake) or Ferrer in the semis.
I know I'm going to regret this, but today's value has to be Ferrer at 2.12 currently in that quarter final with Davydenko. The Valencian is in good form on serve this week and should be in good heart after the Roddick win, so I'm all over the 2.12 as bet of the day today.
Federer looked really uncomfortable in the heat yesterday and surely it's too much to hope for an Almagro victory today, purely because they will face off in the height of the sun?
My lay of the day - Carlos Moya at 1.6 - did eventually come through to win in three sets against Juan Martin Del Potro, but the match was easily close enough for a spot of trading and the Spanish veteran was on offer in excess of 4.4 at times in this match, so a small profit was the outcome of what appeared to be an exhausting encounter in 100 degree temperatures in Ohio.
My other advice - that of David Ferrer to trouble Roddick at 3.95 - turned out to be sound as the Barcelona supporting Valencian dealt with the still vastly overrated Roddick in straight sets and it always brings me pleasure to win money at the expense of the worlds 65th best ranked service returner.
Sadly for me, my spot of Schadenfreude with Roddick resulted in some bad karma, or some misplaced trust in Baghdatis, whichever way you look at it and the portly Cypriot cost me in his match with Roger Federer.
The Swiss maestro looked hot, bothered and ineffective in the first set and Baghdatis looked a bit of value at 3.0 when serving for the set, so I pounced on it like a photographer who had just caught site of Paris Hilton and Lindsey Lohan drunk in a bar and consequently, my fortunes took a dive not dissimilar to that of the two ladies in question. Baghdatis choked in grand style - throwing away four set points and the match was gone right there.
Make mental note... Baghdatis added to my list of chokers, along with Gasquet, Mathieu, Schnyder, Mayer etc etc.
So that cost me, as did an investment on JC Ferrero late last night. I figured that James Blake would at some point trade at odds against in this match and so I layed him when he broke Ferrero in the first set. How wrong I was, as for once Blake kept up his blistering start to take the Spaniard out by 6-4 6-1 and didn't face a break point, therefore offering no way of recompense.
This is not a problem though, as I'm holding an outright investment on Blake at 78.5 for the tournament and at the moment it's looking good. Blake is down to 16 for the event currently and is a 1.4 shot to progress against Sam Querrey tonight. Should Blake win that one, he will face either Davydenko (5-0 lifetime to Blake) or Ferrer in the semis.
I know I'm going to regret this, but today's value has to be Ferrer at 2.12 currently in that quarter final with Davydenko. The Valencian is in good form on serve this week and should be in good heart after the Roddick win, so I'm all over the 2.12 as bet of the day today.
Federer looked really uncomfortable in the heat yesterday and surely it's too much to hope for an Almagro victory today, purely because they will face off in the height of the sun?
Thursday, 16 August 2007
Cincinnati, Day 3 - The seeds fall
‘You live by the sword, you die by the sword’ is an oft used maxim that is relevant today as I count my losses from a twin tie-break defeat on a day of shocks and surprises in Cincinnati.
I was willing enough to accept a Jurgen Melzer victory over Ivo Karlovic the other day by way of two breakers, so I suppose I have to be magnanimous enough to accept defeat by the exact same method for Arnaud Clement last night in his loss to Tomas Berdych.
A first bet of the day defeat in four left me rather bemused and that feeling intensified when Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Richard Gasquet and Fernando Gonzalez amongst other seeded players, all departed Ohio with their hopes of success extinguished.
This shouldn’t come as a major surprise, as this event has a tendency of throwing out some odd results and champions and this is why I backed a bunch of long shots at the start of the tournament.
I wasn’t expecting another such gutless display from Gasquet though and he now joins fellow countryman Gael Monfils on my banned list. I refuse to squander another penny of my hard earned on that spineless delinquent. Gasquet retired after going through the motions for a set and a bit against Hewitt before retiring with a blister on his hand, which begs the question why he even started the match or entered the event with his hand in that condition.
Anyway, he’s out and so is Gonzalez, who can’t buy a win at the moment. He looked all at sea against JC Ferrero and went down in straight sets, thus opening up the draw for my surviving tip, James Blake, to make progress. Defeat for Gonzalez and Nadal has given Blake the chance to reach the semis, but first Blake must pass nemesis JC Ferrero, who has a 3-0 lifetime over the New Yorker, including two wins here in Cincinnati.
Having Blake as your last hope in a tournament is a poor position to be in. I can only liken it to standing around in baggage claim, hopefully looking at the carousel, whilst all the time knowing that you’re in for a whole world of pain, as the realisation of another disappointment dawns. Blake v Ferrero is at midnight tonight and I’m not expecting much sleep.
Federer meanwhile went about his business as usual and is now 1.36 for the tournament. Perhaps only the stifling heat in Ohio can stop him now, as he faces just Baghdatis and probably Hewitt en route to another final.
On to today and the only ties that interest me are Juan Martin Del Potro against Carlos Moya and David Ferrer against Andy Roddick.
I think the value bet of the day would have to be Del Potro to end Moya’s hopes at 2.7 or thereabouts. The Argentine won their only meeting – in straight sets on hard in Mumbai – and I wouldn’t back Moya as favourite against many players, although he’s in half decent touch right now. A two-point win on Del Potro would be the recommendation.
Once again, people seem to be over excited by Roddick’s chances here, but the guy is so limited it’s untrue and if Ferrer is on one of his good days he has a chance and is certainly too big at 3.6
I was willing enough to accept a Jurgen Melzer victory over Ivo Karlovic the other day by way of two breakers, so I suppose I have to be magnanimous enough to accept defeat by the exact same method for Arnaud Clement last night in his loss to Tomas Berdych.
A first bet of the day defeat in four left me rather bemused and that feeling intensified when Rafael Nadal, Novak Djokovic, Richard Gasquet and Fernando Gonzalez amongst other seeded players, all departed Ohio with their hopes of success extinguished.
This shouldn’t come as a major surprise, as this event has a tendency of throwing out some odd results and champions and this is why I backed a bunch of long shots at the start of the tournament.
I wasn’t expecting another such gutless display from Gasquet though and he now joins fellow countryman Gael Monfils on my banned list. I refuse to squander another penny of my hard earned on that spineless delinquent. Gasquet retired after going through the motions for a set and a bit against Hewitt before retiring with a blister on his hand, which begs the question why he even started the match or entered the event with his hand in that condition.
Anyway, he’s out and so is Gonzalez, who can’t buy a win at the moment. He looked all at sea against JC Ferrero and went down in straight sets, thus opening up the draw for my surviving tip, James Blake, to make progress. Defeat for Gonzalez and Nadal has given Blake the chance to reach the semis, but first Blake must pass nemesis JC Ferrero, who has a 3-0 lifetime over the New Yorker, including two wins here in Cincinnati.
Having Blake as your last hope in a tournament is a poor position to be in. I can only liken it to standing around in baggage claim, hopefully looking at the carousel, whilst all the time knowing that you’re in for a whole world of pain, as the realisation of another disappointment dawns. Blake v Ferrero is at midnight tonight and I’m not expecting much sleep.
Federer meanwhile went about his business as usual and is now 1.36 for the tournament. Perhaps only the stifling heat in Ohio can stop him now, as he faces just Baghdatis and probably Hewitt en route to another final.
On to today and the only ties that interest me are Juan Martin Del Potro against Carlos Moya and David Ferrer against Andy Roddick.
I think the value bet of the day would have to be Del Potro to end Moya’s hopes at 2.7 or thereabouts. The Argentine won their only meeting – in straight sets on hard in Mumbai – and I wouldn’t back Moya as favourite against many players, although he’s in half decent touch right now. A two-point win on Del Potro would be the recommendation.
Once again, people seem to be over excited by Roddick’s chances here, but the guy is so limited it’s untrue and if Ferrer is on one of his good days he has a chance and is certainly too big at 3.6
Wednesday, 15 August 2007
Cincinnati - Day 2
Typical. No bet of the day advised and each of the wagers I was toying with (but eventually decided against) waltzed home in straight sets without breaking sweat.
I think it would have been sheer madness to have steamed in on Robby Ginepri at odds-on, given his current form, but he always seems to make things happen at this time of year and the Floridian took out veteran Swede, Jonas Bjorkman, four and four.
My other fancy, Jarko Nieminen gave Tommy Robredo a good hiding, as I thought he might, but the Finnish number one’s record against top ten players is abysmal and given the negative head-to-head stats, I gave that one a swerve too.
Best bet of the day – and I couldn’t believe the odds on this one – was Arnaud Clement at 3.90 to beat Paul-Henri Mathieu and beat him he did, in straight sets, 6-4 6-2. Although I had made a small wager on Mathieu to win the event outright at 150.0, the price on Clement was too good to miss and I profited nicely on that match.
So, one of my outright bets falls at the first, meanwhile another one - James Blake cruised through his first round encounter with Alejandro Falla by 7-6 6-1 and next faces German, Nicolas Kiefer. Hopefully, Blake is over the stomach injury from last week, because he is due a good run and may well get one if fit.
My other outright bets begin their campaigns today and both have tricky matches. Richard Gasquet faces the ever-competitive Lleyton Hewitt and Fernando Gonzalez will be looking for some form against JC Ferrero.
There are some cracking matches on today’s coupon and the lay of the day for me has to be Tomas Berdych in his match with Arnaud Clement. The Czech has been having a poor run of late and tends to get a bit moody if he’s not dictating matches (think Nadal at Wimbledon and Volandri in Rome), which he may not be able to do against Clement. Berdych is not known as much of a battler when behind and odds of 1.41 are too short I feel against an opponent who is tough to beat when his confidence is up, which it should be after the Mathieu victory. The price of around 7.6 for a Clement straight sets win is a tempter and I may have a serious look at that later on.
Elsewhere on today’s card, it’s worth considering comeback kid, Mario Ancic, at 1.75 to beat Jurgen Melzer after his great win over Tommy Haas last night, assuming it hasn’t taken too much out of him. It’s difficult to know what sort of shape Ancic is in, following his illness, so small stakes on this one.
Also worth a look today are Radek Stepanek at 2.50 to beat David Ferrer and possibly a multiple to include Baghdatis, Del Potro and Djokovic.
I think it would have been sheer madness to have steamed in on Robby Ginepri at odds-on, given his current form, but he always seems to make things happen at this time of year and the Floridian took out veteran Swede, Jonas Bjorkman, four and four.
My other fancy, Jarko Nieminen gave Tommy Robredo a good hiding, as I thought he might, but the Finnish number one’s record against top ten players is abysmal and given the negative head-to-head stats, I gave that one a swerve too.
Best bet of the day – and I couldn’t believe the odds on this one – was Arnaud Clement at 3.90 to beat Paul-Henri Mathieu and beat him he did, in straight sets, 6-4 6-2. Although I had made a small wager on Mathieu to win the event outright at 150.0, the price on Clement was too good to miss and I profited nicely on that match.
So, one of my outright bets falls at the first, meanwhile another one - James Blake cruised through his first round encounter with Alejandro Falla by 7-6 6-1 and next faces German, Nicolas Kiefer. Hopefully, Blake is over the stomach injury from last week, because he is due a good run and may well get one if fit.
My other outright bets begin their campaigns today and both have tricky matches. Richard Gasquet faces the ever-competitive Lleyton Hewitt and Fernando Gonzalez will be looking for some form against JC Ferrero.
There are some cracking matches on today’s coupon and the lay of the day for me has to be Tomas Berdych in his match with Arnaud Clement. The Czech has been having a poor run of late and tends to get a bit moody if he’s not dictating matches (think Nadal at Wimbledon and Volandri in Rome), which he may not be able to do against Clement. Berdych is not known as much of a battler when behind and odds of 1.41 are too short I feel against an opponent who is tough to beat when his confidence is up, which it should be after the Mathieu victory. The price of around 7.6 for a Clement straight sets win is a tempter and I may have a serious look at that later on.
Elsewhere on today’s card, it’s worth considering comeback kid, Mario Ancic, at 1.75 to beat Jurgen Melzer after his great win over Tommy Haas last night, assuming it hasn’t taken too much out of him. It’s difficult to know what sort of shape Ancic is in, following his illness, so small stakes on this one.
Also worth a look today are Radek Stepanek at 2.50 to beat David Ferrer and possibly a multiple to include Baghdatis, Del Potro and Djokovic.
Tuesday, 14 August 2007
Cincinnati, Day 1 - Continued success
There are but two things certain in life - one is that Tim Westwood will never grow out of listening to rap music (despite pushing 50 years of age) and the other is that Tim Henman will lose a tennis match in three sets.
The latter happened again yesterday in Cincinnati and Henman might as well start to consider a career next to Greg Rusedski in the commentary box, debating how close they came to that elusive grand slam title.
Yes, as predicted, Chela took care of our Tim in three sets, thus denying the possibility of a very poor advert for British tennis in round two. A way past his best Henman against an injured Andy Murray would quite literally have been painful to watch.
On a brighter note, it was back to business for me, as my bet of the day - Jurgen Melzer - cruised past Ivo Karlovic by way of two tie breaks and has now won an astonishing 11 consecutive sets against the 6'10" Croatian! I also made a bit on Amer Delic, who was trading at in excess of 3.15 pre-match against Ivan Ljubicic, which was too good to miss and after an easy first set for the American, a simple lay-off was the order of the day, before Ljubicic came back to take the match.
All told, a very enjoyable first day at the Western & Southern Masters. Sadly there are no such straightforward opportunities today and I don't fancy anything enough for a bet of the day.
Robby Ginepri would be a lock to beat Jonas Bjorkman at 1.75 if he could find his old form, but he looks a million miles away at the moment.
Jarko Nieminen tempts me at 2.6 to take out Tommy Robredo, however the Spaniard is 4-0 on head to heads, so that puts me off.
Murray is a decent price at over 3.1 against a patchy Marcos Baghdatis, but I don't trust the Murray wrist enough to invest at the moment, so no wagers today.
The latter happened again yesterday in Cincinnati and Henman might as well start to consider a career next to Greg Rusedski in the commentary box, debating how close they came to that elusive grand slam title.
Yes, as predicted, Chela took care of our Tim in three sets, thus denying the possibility of a very poor advert for British tennis in round two. A way past his best Henman against an injured Andy Murray would quite literally have been painful to watch.
On a brighter note, it was back to business for me, as my bet of the day - Jurgen Melzer - cruised past Ivo Karlovic by way of two tie breaks and has now won an astonishing 11 consecutive sets against the 6'10" Croatian! I also made a bit on Amer Delic, who was trading at in excess of 3.15 pre-match against Ivan Ljubicic, which was too good to miss and after an easy first set for the American, a simple lay-off was the order of the day, before Ljubicic came back to take the match.
All told, a very enjoyable first day at the Western & Southern Masters. Sadly there are no such straightforward opportunities today and I don't fancy anything enough for a bet of the day.
Robby Ginepri would be a lock to beat Jonas Bjorkman at 1.75 if he could find his old form, but he looks a million miles away at the moment.
Jarko Nieminen tempts me at 2.6 to take out Tommy Robredo, however the Spaniard is 4-0 on head to heads, so that puts me off.
Murray is a decent price at over 3.1 against a patchy Marcos Baghdatis, but I don't trust the Murray wrist enough to invest at the moment, so no wagers today.
Sunday, 12 August 2007
Roger's Masters? Not this year! Montreal wrap and Cincinatti advice
Fantastic news in every sense! No, Big Brother hasn't been decommissioned, but rather Roger Federer has been - temporarily at least - and more importantly I've somehow managed to make a profit (albeit a small one) from a hitherto disastrous week in Montreal.
Yes, Sunday evening was pleasurable indeed, as Novak Djokovic took out Roger Federer in a final set tie-break and concomitantly almost doubled my bank. A touch ironic perhaps, as the young Serb had started my recent slide with a defeat in Umag and I'm pleased that I kept faith in his ability and had a few points on him at 14.0 before the Roddick match.
The final itself was a wonderful game, with Djokovic going a break up, only to be pegged back by Federer, who served for the set at 6-5 before Djokovic broke back and set up a breaker in which he prevailed by 7-2. Federer took the second set by 6-2, before service breaks were traded until we reached the inevitable final set shoot out. Djokovic went 6-1 up and held his nerve to earn himself a 7-6 (2), 2-6, 7-6 (2) victory and his second ATP Masters title of the year.
Federer is now without a tournament win from his last three hard court events and Djokovic has come in to 8.4 to win the US Open with Betfair. Fortunately for me, I have been telling anyone that would listen that the Serb was worth an ante post flutter and my 35.0 bet is looking a wise investment currently.
As for Federer, he will start the Western & Southern Masters today in Cincinatti at an easier to back 1.75 and appears to have the best of the draw in which to try and compensate for his recent lack of hard court success.
Speaking of which, I've been analysing the draw for the $1,000,000 'perfect bracket' competition, which is in operation for this tournament, but the chances of anyone predicting each and every match for the entire event correctly are surely zero. It has helped me to break down the draw though, so I am having a small wager of half a point or one point on Paul-Henri Mathieu at 150.0 and a couple of maybe's at decent prices.
Mathieu has been playing superbly well recently and 150.0 in my view is a very generous lay by someone on Betfair. The best price with the other layers is 80.0 and the way that the Frenchman has been playing of late makes my pick a bit of value.
I also think that James Blake is due a good week and I've managed to find myself a layer for Blake at 70.0, which again is almost twice the price he is trading at elsewhere. The injury that forced him out of Montreal wasn't a serious one and the New Yorker can go well here given his decent draw and an assumption of fitness.
Also worth a consideration are two mercurial talents who are fresh and ready to go this week in Fernando Gonzalez and Richard Gasquet. I've had half a point on the Chilean at 70.0 to overcome his recent poor form and the same goes for Gasquet who owes me a performance after his match point capitulation to Verdasco last week.
All of this may be futile of course, as Federer will be gunning to make up for his Montreal defeat and his defeat here last year to Andy Murray, who Federer may face again in this year's last 32. Murray, however has a tough first round against Marcos Baghdatis and the Cypriot will start favourite, given the Scot's dodgy wrist.
As far as today's first round matches are concerned, there may be a little bit of value to be had by backing Jurgen Melzer to beat Ivo Karlovic at the current odds of 2.5. The Austrian holds a career 4-0 record over the giant Croatian and has won each of the nine sets that the two have played, including at this years Australian Open, so Melzer clearly has a handle on that huge serve of Karlovic's. A two point win would be todays bet of the day and it could also be worth chancing Amer Delic to continue Ivan Ljubicic's poor run of form at the current odds of 2.75 in what will probably be a battle of the serves.
Odds-on backers will be looking at Chela to beat Henman as the lock of the day at around 1.5 and even given Chela's average run of form, he will surely be too good for an on the slide Henman.
Yes, Sunday evening was pleasurable indeed, as Novak Djokovic took out Roger Federer in a final set tie-break and concomitantly almost doubled my bank. A touch ironic perhaps, as the young Serb had started my recent slide with a defeat in Umag and I'm pleased that I kept faith in his ability and had a few points on him at 14.0 before the Roddick match.
The final itself was a wonderful game, with Djokovic going a break up, only to be pegged back by Federer, who served for the set at 6-5 before Djokovic broke back and set up a breaker in which he prevailed by 7-2. Federer took the second set by 6-2, before service breaks were traded until we reached the inevitable final set shoot out. Djokovic went 6-1 up and held his nerve to earn himself a 7-6 (2), 2-6, 7-6 (2) victory and his second ATP Masters title of the year.
Federer is now without a tournament win from his last three hard court events and Djokovic has come in to 8.4 to win the US Open with Betfair. Fortunately for me, I have been telling anyone that would listen that the Serb was worth an ante post flutter and my 35.0 bet is looking a wise investment currently.
As for Federer, he will start the Western & Southern Masters today in Cincinatti at an easier to back 1.75 and appears to have the best of the draw in which to try and compensate for his recent lack of hard court success.
Speaking of which, I've been analysing the draw for the $1,000,000 'perfect bracket' competition, which is in operation for this tournament, but the chances of anyone predicting each and every match for the entire event correctly are surely zero. It has helped me to break down the draw though, so I am having a small wager of half a point or one point on Paul-Henri Mathieu at 150.0 and a couple of maybe's at decent prices.
Mathieu has been playing superbly well recently and 150.0 in my view is a very generous lay by someone on Betfair. The best price with the other layers is 80.0 and the way that the Frenchman has been playing of late makes my pick a bit of value.
I also think that James Blake is due a good week and I've managed to find myself a layer for Blake at 70.0, which again is almost twice the price he is trading at elsewhere. The injury that forced him out of Montreal wasn't a serious one and the New Yorker can go well here given his decent draw and an assumption of fitness.
Also worth a consideration are two mercurial talents who are fresh and ready to go this week in Fernando Gonzalez and Richard Gasquet. I've had half a point on the Chilean at 70.0 to overcome his recent poor form and the same goes for Gasquet who owes me a performance after his match point capitulation to Verdasco last week.
All of this may be futile of course, as Federer will be gunning to make up for his Montreal defeat and his defeat here last year to Andy Murray, who Federer may face again in this year's last 32. Murray, however has a tough first round against Marcos Baghdatis and the Cypriot will start favourite, given the Scot's dodgy wrist.
As far as today's first round matches are concerned, there may be a little bit of value to be had by backing Jurgen Melzer to beat Ivo Karlovic at the current odds of 2.5. The Austrian holds a career 4-0 record over the giant Croatian and has won each of the nine sets that the two have played, including at this years Australian Open, so Melzer clearly has a handle on that huge serve of Karlovic's. A two point win would be todays bet of the day and it could also be worth chancing Amer Delic to continue Ivan Ljubicic's poor run of form at the current odds of 2.75 in what will probably be a battle of the serves.
Odds-on backers will be looking at Chela to beat Henman as the lock of the day at around 1.5 and even given Chela's average run of form, he will surely be too good for an on the slide Henman.
Roger's Masters? Quite possibly..
Well, well. A comeback not quite in the Lazarus mould, but in terms of my betting funds, the last couple of days have been a very welcome turnaround indeed. Two bet of the day wins out of two and things are on the up.
Novak Djokovic has redeemed himself after the disaster in Umag and he will become my new favourite player if he manages to dethrone Federer later today in Montreal. The fickle nature of the sporting punter..
Last night, the young Serbian prodigy took care of Rafael Nadal in straight sets - assisted by saving each of the eight break points that he faced - and ran out a 7-5 6-3 winner. My three point single showed a nice profit and my saver outright bet on Djokovic at 14.0 now gives me the chance to trade up or lay off during the final tonight.
In order to give me a chance though, Djokovic will have to start well against Federer, who didn't have things all his own way yesterday when he faced Radek Stepanek. The Swiss was taken to a tight first set breaker before running out a 7-6 6-2 victor.
My outright bet on Djokovic for the US Open at 35.0 is looking more favourable now and may be even more so if he manages to take out Federer tonight. I think that he is in with a shout if he can get to grips early on and keep Federer close in the first set. There are far worse wagers around than the 4.5 on offer for Djokovic for claim the title and it has all the makings of a very interesting final.
Roger's Masters? I very much hope not.
Novak Djokovic has redeemed himself after the disaster in Umag and he will become my new favourite player if he manages to dethrone Federer later today in Montreal. The fickle nature of the sporting punter..
Last night, the young Serbian prodigy took care of Rafael Nadal in straight sets - assisted by saving each of the eight break points that he faced - and ran out a 7-5 6-3 winner. My three point single showed a nice profit and my saver outright bet on Djokovic at 14.0 now gives me the chance to trade up or lay off during the final tonight.
In order to give me a chance though, Djokovic will have to start well against Federer, who didn't have things all his own way yesterday when he faced Radek Stepanek. The Swiss was taken to a tight first set breaker before running out a 7-6 6-2 victor.
My outright bet on Djokovic for the US Open at 35.0 is looking more favourable now and may be even more so if he manages to take out Federer tonight. I think that he is in with a shout if he can get to grips early on and keep Federer close in the first set. There are far worse wagers around than the 4.5 on offer for Djokovic for claim the title and it has all the makings of a very interesting final.
Roger's Masters? I very much hope not.
Saturday, 11 August 2007
Roger's Cup? Tennis prevails
Vindication at last! Yes, finally I have managed to make some correct calls this week and I'm in with a chance of returning my funds to their former levels.
As predicted yesterday, Novak Djokovic burst Andy Roddick's bubble in straight sets in their quarter final in Montreal, which enabled me to claw some of this weeks losses back.
Djokovic started as 1.70 favourite and I backed him at prices up to 2.4 for a win that was a pleasing one for me and I think a good one for tennis, in the sense that someone that I consider to be a real talent, rather than a serve/forehand machine prevailed.
Washington last week was purely a matter of who could hit the hardest serves consistently and Roddick won that little battle, just ahead of fellow bangers, John Isner, Ivo Karlovic and Gael Monfils. Even Federer was taken to two tie breaks this week by Karlovic and it's good to see that the semis here in Montreal will be tennis contests.
In the other quarters, Federer continued his effortless progress with a win over Hewitt; Stepanek dispatched Davydenko in straight sets, as predicted and in the night match, Nadal came from a set down to beat another serve merchant, Frank Dancevic.
So, today's matches should be entertaining and I am quietly confident of a Djokovic victory at odds against over Nadal in the night match. Djokovic has a hard court victory over the Spaniard to his name already and I can see him notching another one at the current odds of 2.12. This would have to be the bet of the day and is well worth chancing, as Nadal has looked vulnerable in this event, without anyone being able to finish him off. He won't find it so easy to come from a set down against the young Serbian and a three point bet is probably a wise investment.
Stepanek has been playing some decent tennis early in the hard court swing, but will find it too tough against Federer this afternoon and I don't see him upsetting the Swiss maestro. Fed in straight sets again for me in that one, but whatever happens we should have a great final on our hands.
As predicted yesterday, Novak Djokovic burst Andy Roddick's bubble in straight sets in their quarter final in Montreal, which enabled me to claw some of this weeks losses back.
Djokovic started as 1.70 favourite and I backed him at prices up to 2.4 for a win that was a pleasing one for me and I think a good one for tennis, in the sense that someone that I consider to be a real talent, rather than a serve/forehand machine prevailed.
Washington last week was purely a matter of who could hit the hardest serves consistently and Roddick won that little battle, just ahead of fellow bangers, John Isner, Ivo Karlovic and Gael Monfils. Even Federer was taken to two tie breaks this week by Karlovic and it's good to see that the semis here in Montreal will be tennis contests.
In the other quarters, Federer continued his effortless progress with a win over Hewitt; Stepanek dispatched Davydenko in straight sets, as predicted and in the night match, Nadal came from a set down to beat another serve merchant, Frank Dancevic.
So, today's matches should be entertaining and I am quietly confident of a Djokovic victory at odds against over Nadal in the night match. Djokovic has a hard court victory over the Spaniard to his name already and I can see him notching another one at the current odds of 2.12. This would have to be the bet of the day and is well worth chancing, as Nadal has looked vulnerable in this event, without anyone being able to finish him off. He won't find it so easy to come from a set down against the young Serbian and a three point bet is probably a wise investment.
Stepanek has been playing some decent tennis early in the hard court swing, but will find it too tough against Federer this afternoon and I don't see him upsetting the Swiss maestro. Fed in straight sets again for me in that one, but whatever happens we should have a great final on our hands.
Friday, 10 August 2007
Roger's Masters? Hope snuffed out..
This morning I am reminded of a classic headline from The Sun newspaper, which appositely sums up my current situation..'Will the last person to leave Britain please turn out the lights' I believe was the paper's advice, should Neil Kinnock's Labour party win the general election in 1992.
It was Novak Djokvic's pathetic display in Umag which started the rot and my decline from 50-1 winning genius to what we see today, which quite frankly is a man in the very worst of fortune and a man with all the tennis knowledge of Derek McGovern and the RP combined.
My bets of the day have been beaten in straight sets for the last two days, as have my accas and now my outright bets have departed too without adding any funds to the threadbare Calvert accounts - although I blame that incompetent fool Richard Gasquet for one of those for failing to convert two match points on serve.
The only shining light yesterday, was my lay of the day, Rafael Nadal, trading at almost 3-1 from 1-6 at one stage of his hard fought victory over Mathieu and thus clawing a little back for me, but other than that, Tommy Haas and Marcos Baghdatis both succumbed to defeat and I am now hoping that a little irony may assist me in Montreal.
The self same Novak Djokovic that couldn't be bothered in Croatia looks like a lock to take care of the annoying Andy Roddick, after both Clement and Baghdatis failed to dispose of the macho fool and I am taking Djokovic to reach the final in this event at least. Is nobody else totally bored with Roddick and his whining and with his aggravating coach, Jimmy Connors - a man whose sole contribution to commentary is the word 'mmm' after each and every winner?
Strangely, the quarter finals tonight will be Roddick and Djokovic's first match up and I am as sure as I can be that the Serbian will come out on top. I make Djokovic today's bet of the day at the widely available 8-11 and the outright price of 13-1 seems worth a saver tournament bet and I will be snapping that up shortly.
In the other quarters, Nadal and Federer look total certainties to dispose of Frank Dancevic and Lleyton Hewitt respectively, so the only match worth a trade will be Davydenko v Stepanek, if you are of a mind to trust in the dodgy Russian's commitment to the cause. Strange how that incredibly painful foot injury from last week has cleared up isn't it? Stepanek may be worth risking at around 11-8 to rid this event of Davydenko.
No lay of the day today, unless you're banking on the crowd winning another set for Dancevic as they did last night, or Federer misfiring against Hewitt. Can't see either of those things happening and so no lay today.
It was Novak Djokvic's pathetic display in Umag which started the rot and my decline from 50-1 winning genius to what we see today, which quite frankly is a man in the very worst of fortune and a man with all the tennis knowledge of Derek McGovern and the RP combined.
My bets of the day have been beaten in straight sets for the last two days, as have my accas and now my outright bets have departed too without adding any funds to the threadbare Calvert accounts - although I blame that incompetent fool Richard Gasquet for one of those for failing to convert two match points on serve.
The only shining light yesterday, was my lay of the day, Rafael Nadal, trading at almost 3-1 from 1-6 at one stage of his hard fought victory over Mathieu and thus clawing a little back for me, but other than that, Tommy Haas and Marcos Baghdatis both succumbed to defeat and I am now hoping that a little irony may assist me in Montreal.
The self same Novak Djokovic that couldn't be bothered in Croatia looks like a lock to take care of the annoying Andy Roddick, after both Clement and Baghdatis failed to dispose of the macho fool and I am taking Djokovic to reach the final in this event at least. Is nobody else totally bored with Roddick and his whining and with his aggravating coach, Jimmy Connors - a man whose sole contribution to commentary is the word 'mmm' after each and every winner?
Strangely, the quarter finals tonight will be Roddick and Djokovic's first match up and I am as sure as I can be that the Serbian will come out on top. I make Djokovic today's bet of the day at the widely available 8-11 and the outright price of 13-1 seems worth a saver tournament bet and I will be snapping that up shortly.
In the other quarters, Nadal and Federer look total certainties to dispose of Frank Dancevic and Lleyton Hewitt respectively, so the only match worth a trade will be Davydenko v Stepanek, if you are of a mind to trust in the dodgy Russian's commitment to the cause. Strange how that incredibly painful foot injury from last week has cleared up isn't it? Stepanek may be worth risking at around 11-8 to rid this event of Davydenko.
No lay of the day today, unless you're banking on the crowd winning another set for Dancevic as they did last night, or Federer misfiring against Hewitt. Can't see either of those things happening and so no lay today.
Wednesday, 8 August 2007
Roger's Masters? A match bet win!
Yes, I'm back in the game with my first match bet success in what seems like quite some time.
Imbibing large quantities of alcohol before attempting to size up a tennis match is not usually recommended, but thanks to a birthday celebration with a bunch of lawyers and large amounts of wine, I felt able to take a view on the Marcos Baghdatis v Carlos Moya match and the resulting three point single on Baghdatis came in successfully, I'm pleased to report.
The Cypriot had to save four set points in the first set tie break before easing to victory by 6-1 in the second to achieve a straight sets win. Fortunately for my stress levels and as a result of alcohol, I fell asleep at 5-5 in the first set and wasn't made to suffer unnecessarily.
Baghdatis' win is also good news for my outright bet, as I expect him to take care of Robin Haase in the next round and set up a probable meeting with Andy Roddick for a place in the quarter finals. The head to head is 1-1, with Baghdatis winning the solitary hard court match in four sets at the Australian Open in 2006 and I think the Cypriot stands a good chance, should the match-up materialise. Roddick is a shocking 14-1 outright and that represents no value whatsoever and I'm liking the 120-1 that I found for Baghdatis in preference.
There are some great matches to look forward to tonight and my bet of the day has to be David Ferrer to beat David Nalbandian. Ferrer owns the head to head by 5-1 and is in by far the better form of the two. Nalbandian looks on the slide to me and I've taken the widely available 4-6 on a Spanish victory.
Other wagers that take my fancy today are home favourite, Frank Dancevic, to beat Wayne Odesnik and Gasquet to beat Verdasco. I also think that if fit, Arnaud Clement is no 6-1 shot to take out Roddick. The Frenchman leads 2-1 on head to heads and on his day can beat the best on hard courts. Lleyton Hewitt owns James Blake and that could be worth an interest too and I may have a small accumulator today.
Elsewhere, my falling asleep precluded me from going in at evens on Mario Ancic last night and as if to prove the maxim 'you snooze, you lose' I missed the chance of backing the Croatian, who obliged in straight sets. Good to see Ancic back after a long break with glandular fever.
My other longshot, Tommy Haas, went through in straight sets against Agustin Calleri yesterday and he looks to have a winnable passage to at least the quarter's. He faces Michael Russell next for the right to face Stepanek. Both of those look within Hass's capability and I'm hopeful of a decent run from the German, who this time won't have to deal with the bombs of John Isner.
Imbibing large quantities of alcohol before attempting to size up a tennis match is not usually recommended, but thanks to a birthday celebration with a bunch of lawyers and large amounts of wine, I felt able to take a view on the Marcos Baghdatis v Carlos Moya match and the resulting three point single on Baghdatis came in successfully, I'm pleased to report.
The Cypriot had to save four set points in the first set tie break before easing to victory by 6-1 in the second to achieve a straight sets win. Fortunately for my stress levels and as a result of alcohol, I fell asleep at 5-5 in the first set and wasn't made to suffer unnecessarily.
Baghdatis' win is also good news for my outright bet, as I expect him to take care of Robin Haase in the next round and set up a probable meeting with Andy Roddick for a place in the quarter finals. The head to head is 1-1, with Baghdatis winning the solitary hard court match in four sets at the Australian Open in 2006 and I think the Cypriot stands a good chance, should the match-up materialise. Roddick is a shocking 14-1 outright and that represents no value whatsoever and I'm liking the 120-1 that I found for Baghdatis in preference.
There are some great matches to look forward to tonight and my bet of the day has to be David Ferrer to beat David Nalbandian. Ferrer owns the head to head by 5-1 and is in by far the better form of the two. Nalbandian looks on the slide to me and I've taken the widely available 4-6 on a Spanish victory.
Other wagers that take my fancy today are home favourite, Frank Dancevic, to beat Wayne Odesnik and Gasquet to beat Verdasco. I also think that if fit, Arnaud Clement is no 6-1 shot to take out Roddick. The Frenchman leads 2-1 on head to heads and on his day can beat the best on hard courts. Lleyton Hewitt owns James Blake and that could be worth an interest too and I may have a small accumulator today.
Elsewhere, my falling asleep precluded me from going in at evens on Mario Ancic last night and as if to prove the maxim 'you snooze, you lose' I missed the chance of backing the Croatian, who obliged in straight sets. Good to see Ancic back after a long break with glandular fever.
My other longshot, Tommy Haas, went through in straight sets against Agustin Calleri yesterday and he looks to have a winnable passage to at least the quarter's. He faces Michael Russell next for the right to face Stepanek. Both of those look within Hass's capability and I'm hopeful of a decent run from the German, who this time won't have to deal with the bombs of John Isner.
Monday, 6 August 2007
Roger's Masters? Day 1
Another day, another defeat and just at the moment, my individual match bet record looks about as favourable as Thaksin Shinawatra's record on human rights. Most shockingly of all, I am even being outgunned by the RP!
Yes, Hyung-Taik Lee lost a three setter to Stanislas Wawrinka in the first round today and I had placed a two and a half point wager on the Korean in the assumption of victory. I was most disappointed with Lee's 6-1 capitulation in the decider and can only conclude that he's burnt himself out by playing too many tournaments.
This is poor form though and I think I might watch a few games here in Montreal before diving in on another match bet, although I do like the look of Soderling to take out an out of sorts Safin in their first rounder at just shy of evens.
Fortunately for me, my great run in outright betting is keeping me afloat and I have managed to obtain decent three figure prices on Baghdatis and Canas and big prices on Haas and Murray also. The surprise defeat of Tomas Berdych today will help Baghdatis and if he takes out Moya tomorrow, I expect a good run for my money from the popular Cypriot.
Yes, Hyung-Taik Lee lost a three setter to Stanislas Wawrinka in the first round today and I had placed a two and a half point wager on the Korean in the assumption of victory. I was most disappointed with Lee's 6-1 capitulation in the decider and can only conclude that he's burnt himself out by playing too many tournaments.
This is poor form though and I think I might watch a few games here in Montreal before diving in on another match bet, although I do like the look of Soderling to take out an out of sorts Safin in their first rounder at just shy of evens.
Fortunately for me, my great run in outright betting is keeping me afloat and I have managed to obtain decent three figure prices on Baghdatis and Canas and big prices on Haas and Murray also. The surprise defeat of Tomas Berdych today will help Baghdatis and if he takes out Moya tomorrow, I expect a good run for my money from the popular Cypriot.
Washington & Poland wrap
A disappointing week for tennis ended in similar fashion for myself, as any chance of profit was wiped out on Sunday.
Jose Acasuso lost his way in the Poland final against Tommy Robredo and went down in straight sets, but not before I had the chance to back Robredo at a good price and add some much needed funds to the bank balance. Acasuso went on to lose the second set by way of the dreaded bagel and he'll have to hope that he's done enough to stay in the top 100 after missing out in Montreal this week.
Over in Washington, some ridiculous serving combined with awful backhand ground strokes and possibly the easiest smash miss that I have ever witnessed, combined to deny beanpole John Isner the chance of a dream win in the Legg Mason Classic.
I was hoping that Isner would sneak the first on a breaker and I could then get on Roddick, but that didn't happen and A-Rod added another title to his roll of honour in straight sets.
So, in total I'm 5 points down on the week and hoping for a better week in Montreal.
Jose Acasuso lost his way in the Poland final against Tommy Robredo and went down in straight sets, but not before I had the chance to back Robredo at a good price and add some much needed funds to the bank balance. Acasuso went on to lose the second set by way of the dreaded bagel and he'll have to hope that he's done enough to stay in the top 100 after missing out in Montreal this week.
Over in Washington, some ridiculous serving combined with awful backhand ground strokes and possibly the easiest smash miss that I have ever witnessed, combined to deny beanpole John Isner the chance of a dream win in the Legg Mason Classic.
I was hoping that Isner would sneak the first on a breaker and I could then get on Roddick, but that didn't happen and A-Rod added another title to his roll of honour in straight sets.
So, in total I'm 5 points down on the week and hoping for a better week in Montreal.
Sunday, 5 August 2007
Roger's Masters?
Finally, the red dirt is no more and quite frankly I am as happy to see the back of it as Gordon Brown was to see the back of Tony Blair.
Hopefully this week we'll see some proper tennis - i.e. no fixed matches or contests dictated by the serves of giants. We have just the one tournament to concentrate on and it's the Rogers Cup on hard in Montreal, an ATP Masters Series event and one which has all of the world's top stars on display.
Considering the fact that all of 2007's Grand Slams and Masters Series events have been won by either Federer or Nadal, with the exception of one, and 18 of the last 20 Masters, it would be easy to assume that this one will result in a victory for the Swiss or the Majorcan. The other Masters event this year incidentally was won by world number three Djokovic, so it's fair to say that in the big tournaments, class tells.
Looking at the draw is never a great deal of use in Masters events, as there is quality everywhere in the field, so I have been concentrating on alternatives to the big two. My conclusion was to have a small bet of one point on Richard Gasquet, as I managed to bag 50-1 on Betfair, with a few half point bets being added to that in the event of someone matching a big price on any of Haas, Murray, Canas or Baghdatis. These are the big match players with the best chances, but I won't be getting involved unless I find three figure prices or thereabouts. Gasquet was runner up here last year and I'm hoping that his semi-final performance at Wimbledon will give him a boost to go well again here this year.
With so much depending on Federer's performance, it makes sense to keep stakes to a minimum and hope that Karlovic can catch the Swiss cold in his first round match with a barrage of aces and unreturnables, or perhaps Murray or Blake later on. This is all guesswork really, but the main profit opportunity this week will be the individual match bets and I like the look of Hyung-Taik Lee today to take out Stanislas Wawrinka at around 4-5.
Hopefully this week we'll see some proper tennis - i.e. no fixed matches or contests dictated by the serves of giants. We have just the one tournament to concentrate on and it's the Rogers Cup on hard in Montreal, an ATP Masters Series event and one which has all of the world's top stars on display.
Considering the fact that all of 2007's Grand Slams and Masters Series events have been won by either Federer or Nadal, with the exception of one, and 18 of the last 20 Masters, it would be easy to assume that this one will result in a victory for the Swiss or the Majorcan. The other Masters event this year incidentally was won by world number three Djokovic, so it's fair to say that in the big tournaments, class tells.
Looking at the draw is never a great deal of use in Masters events, as there is quality everywhere in the field, so I have been concentrating on alternatives to the big two. My conclusion was to have a small bet of one point on Richard Gasquet, as I managed to bag 50-1 on Betfair, with a few half point bets being added to that in the event of someone matching a big price on any of Haas, Murray, Canas or Baghdatis. These are the big match players with the best chances, but I won't be getting involved unless I find three figure prices or thereabouts. Gasquet was runner up here last year and I'm hoping that his semi-final performance at Wimbledon will give him a boost to go well again here this year.
With so much depending on Federer's performance, it makes sense to keep stakes to a minimum and hope that Karlovic can catch the Swiss cold in his first round match with a barrage of aces and unreturnables, or perhaps Murray or Blake later on. This is all guesswork really, but the main profit opportunity this week will be the individual match bets and I like the look of Hyung-Taik Lee today to take out Stanislas Wawrinka at around 4-5.
Washington & Poland - Finals Day
The furore regarding the match fixing has reached the broadsheets and doubtless there will be a feature or two in today's Sunday's about questionable matches. The publishers should give me a call, I could load them up with info.
Anyway, back to the tennis and thanks to a little bit of skill and some good fortune, I again am blessed with two representatives in the two finals taking place today.
My outside bet, Jose Acasuso, thrashed a disillusioned and tetchy Albert Montanes, 6-2, 6-1 in one of the most one-sided semi finals I can recall yesterday over in Poland and thanks to the other semi being a very low quality affair, I can lay off for an all ways profit.
Usually, it would be expected that Tommy Robredo would start as favourite against Jose Acasuso, but he has laboured badly in this event and it looks likely that we will have joint faves by the time the match begins, which gives me a chance to trade up into profit.
In Washington, I caught a break by backing US giant, John Isner, at 20-1 during the first set of his victory over my tip, Tommy Haas, and Isner has made the final where he will face Andy Roddick.
A very disgruntled Haas said after his final set breaker defeat that "anyone over 6 feet 6 inches should be banned from the tour" and after watching last nights semi finals on Eurosport, he has a valid point.
Roddick prevailed over another giant, Ivo Karlovic by way of two tie breaks and Isner came through against Gael Monfils in three tie breaks. Washington has become a contest of the tallest man with the biggest serve wins and it's so dull to watch that I fell asleep after the first set of Isner v Monfils and left a lay of Isner at 11-2 up with Betfair, which was of course taken when he won. Am guessing though that the final may involve the odd tie break and so I will be able to profit from the Washington event, albeit a small profit after the defeat of Haas. I guess I made the mistake of thinking that there may be some tennis played in between serves.
So, we have Acasuso v Robredo at lunchtime, followed by the Charity Shield (sorry, the Community Shield) afterwards and an insomniacs dream of a Washington final tonight. Not a bad day's opportunities and a chance to end the week ahead with only the Masters event in Canada next week to play with, which will be a tough one to call. They don't call it the Rogers Cup for nothing.
Anyway, back to the tennis and thanks to a little bit of skill and some good fortune, I again am blessed with two representatives in the two finals taking place today.
My outside bet, Jose Acasuso, thrashed a disillusioned and tetchy Albert Montanes, 6-2, 6-1 in one of the most one-sided semi finals I can recall yesterday over in Poland and thanks to the other semi being a very low quality affair, I can lay off for an all ways profit.
Usually, it would be expected that Tommy Robredo would start as favourite against Jose Acasuso, but he has laboured badly in this event and it looks likely that we will have joint faves by the time the match begins, which gives me a chance to trade up into profit.
In Washington, I caught a break by backing US giant, John Isner, at 20-1 during the first set of his victory over my tip, Tommy Haas, and Isner has made the final where he will face Andy Roddick.
A very disgruntled Haas said after his final set breaker defeat that "anyone over 6 feet 6 inches should be banned from the tour" and after watching last nights semi finals on Eurosport, he has a valid point.
Roddick prevailed over another giant, Ivo Karlovic by way of two tie breaks and Isner came through against Gael Monfils in three tie breaks. Washington has become a contest of the tallest man with the biggest serve wins and it's so dull to watch that I fell asleep after the first set of Isner v Monfils and left a lay of Isner at 11-2 up with Betfair, which was of course taken when he won. Am guessing though that the final may involve the odd tie break and so I will be able to profit from the Washington event, albeit a small profit after the defeat of Haas. I guess I made the mistake of thinking that there may be some tennis played in between serves.
So, we have Acasuso v Robredo at lunchtime, followed by the Charity Shield (sorry, the Community Shield) afterwards and an insomniacs dream of a Washington final tonight. Not a bad day's opportunities and a chance to end the week ahead with only the Masters event in Canada next week to play with, which will be a tough one to call. They don't call it the Rogers Cup for nothing.
Friday, 3 August 2007
Washington & Poland - Beyond a joke
After yesterday's Davydenko disgrace in Sopot, which even made the back page of the Evening Standard under the headline 'scandal hits tennis world', one would be entitled to believe that one of the players involved, Martin Vassallo Arguello, would not be dumb enough to try it on again the very next day!
Well, his quarter final match up against Albert Montanes was looking like one way traffic for Vassallo Arguello with the score at 6-2, 4-1 and what do we see the prices at? It should have been about 1-6 on Vassallo Arguello, but curiously his price was a shade of odds on! For a guy a set and two breaks up to be just slightly odds-on is ridiculous and sure enough a wedge of cash came in for Montanes, who coincidentally happened to win the match from that point by the scoreline of 2-6, 6-4, 6-2 and all the while his price was incredibly short. Disgusting and another really poor advert for tennis.
Regarding the matches that appeared to be straight, of which there were few this week it appears, I didn't need to have any individual match bets, as my two remaining bets in Poland were in action today and Jose Acasuso did the business for me in straight sets against Florian Mayer and he now faces Montanes in the semi's. The big Argentine has a perfect 5-0 record in all events against Montanes and he won't get a better chance than this to salvage his ATP ranking and win me some loot at the same time.
My other bet, Igor Andreev, went down in straight sets to Gilles Simon and yet again, the Russian has flattered to deceive in these small tournaments, leaving me in the unenviable position of having to rely on Acasuso for this week's Poland profit.
Over in Washington, where the matches seem relatively normal, the stupidly tall serving machine that is John Isner gave Tommy Haas a barrage of aces in their quarter final match. Isner has been unbelievable all week on serve and I think Henman is the only player to have broken his serve here and that was only once. Most of his sets go to breakers and Haas saved a match point in the second set breaker before winning it 8-6 to set up a decider. Sadly for my bet, Isner took it, however I did have a saver on Isner for the tournament at 20-1 after the first set when it looked like being a tough night for Haas, so I'm still in the game in Washington.
Well, his quarter final match up against Albert Montanes was looking like one way traffic for Vassallo Arguello with the score at 6-2, 4-1 and what do we see the prices at? It should have been about 1-6 on Vassallo Arguello, but curiously his price was a shade of odds on! For a guy a set and two breaks up to be just slightly odds-on is ridiculous and sure enough a wedge of cash came in for Montanes, who coincidentally happened to win the match from that point by the scoreline of 2-6, 6-4, 6-2 and all the while his price was incredibly short. Disgusting and another really poor advert for tennis.
Regarding the matches that appeared to be straight, of which there were few this week it appears, I didn't need to have any individual match bets, as my two remaining bets in Poland were in action today and Jose Acasuso did the business for me in straight sets against Florian Mayer and he now faces Montanes in the semi's. The big Argentine has a perfect 5-0 record in all events against Montanes and he won't get a better chance than this to salvage his ATP ranking and win me some loot at the same time.
My other bet, Igor Andreev, went down in straight sets to Gilles Simon and yet again, the Russian has flattered to deceive in these small tournaments, leaving me in the unenviable position of having to rely on Acasuso for this week's Poland profit.
Over in Washington, where the matches seem relatively normal, the stupidly tall serving machine that is John Isner gave Tommy Haas a barrage of aces in their quarter final match. Isner has been unbelievable all week on serve and I think Henman is the only player to have broken his serve here and that was only once. Most of his sets go to breakers and Haas saved a match point in the second set breaker before winning it 8-6 to set up a decider. Sadly for my bet, Isner took it, however I did have a saver on Isner for the tournament at 20-1 after the first set when it looked like being a tough night for Haas, so I'm still in the game in Washington.
Thursday, 2 August 2007
Washington & Poland - A dark day for tennis
Thursday, August 2nd was a day that many will remember for a long time to come for all the wrong reasons. As has been reported in the media, the tennis authorities are supposedly launching an investigation into the disgraceful betting patterns on the Davydenko v Vassello Arguello match in Poland.
I happened to be following this match, both the betting beforehand and the live stream from Poland and this is what happened: -
Davydenko's odds shifted from around 1-4 (which you would expect him to be against a much lower ranked opponent) to around 6-4 against before the players had even emerged from the locker room and rumours were rife on the betting forums that Davydenko would throw this match.
The Russian's price contunued to ease out from 6-4 to over 2-1 after he won the first set by six games to 2. Now, a player ranked number four in the world and defending tournament champion wins the first set easily against a guy ranked in the 80's and his price drifts out. At times during the match, Davydenko was trading at 10-1 and above, even though he was leading the match!
Of course, once the first set has been completed, Betfair will pay out on a result, even if one player retires and predictably enough, a couple of games into the second set, Davydenko, having shown no signs of injury, calls for the trainer and starts wincing in agony over a foot injury. He calls the trainer again twice during the second set, which surprisingly he lost and by this time his opponent's odds were around the 1-10 mark, where they stayed until Davydenko finally quit on his stool after three games of the third set.
The mainstream bookies were running for cover and refused to bet in play on this fixture, having seen the potential carnage and Bet 365 were purely betting on individual games of the match and not the outright result. Of course, most bookies won't pay out on an incomplete match, but there was £3.5 million traded on Betfair, which is a huge amount for a second round match of a minor tournament and it was blindingly obvious that for whatever reason, Davydenko was not going to win this encounter.
It is possible that Davydenko had nothing to do with this, rather his people, knowing that he had an injury decided, very unwisely to lump on Vassello Arguello and begin a betting landslide, where punters spotted free money and flooded the market. However, the Russian, along with several others, such as Volandri, Andreev etc does have a history of highly suspicious matches and quite correctly in my view, Betfair have suspended payments on this match.
I would imagine that Betfair will eventually settle and the ATP's inquiry will result in no findings of foul play, but this sort of thing will eventually ruin the sport if nothing is done to prevent the practice of match fixing, which is much more common than many would like to believe.
I happened to be following this match, both the betting beforehand and the live stream from Poland and this is what happened: -
Davydenko's odds shifted from around 1-4 (which you would expect him to be against a much lower ranked opponent) to around 6-4 against before the players had even emerged from the locker room and rumours were rife on the betting forums that Davydenko would throw this match.
The Russian's price contunued to ease out from 6-4 to over 2-1 after he won the first set by six games to 2. Now, a player ranked number four in the world and defending tournament champion wins the first set easily against a guy ranked in the 80's and his price drifts out. At times during the match, Davydenko was trading at 10-1 and above, even though he was leading the match!
Of course, once the first set has been completed, Betfair will pay out on a result, even if one player retires and predictably enough, a couple of games into the second set, Davydenko, having shown no signs of injury, calls for the trainer and starts wincing in agony over a foot injury. He calls the trainer again twice during the second set, which surprisingly he lost and by this time his opponent's odds were around the 1-10 mark, where they stayed until Davydenko finally quit on his stool after three games of the third set.
The mainstream bookies were running for cover and refused to bet in play on this fixture, having seen the potential carnage and Bet 365 were purely betting on individual games of the match and not the outright result. Of course, most bookies won't pay out on an incomplete match, but there was £3.5 million traded on Betfair, which is a huge amount for a second round match of a minor tournament and it was blindingly obvious that for whatever reason, Davydenko was not going to win this encounter.
It is possible that Davydenko had nothing to do with this, rather his people, knowing that he had an injury decided, very unwisely to lump on Vassello Arguello and begin a betting landslide, where punters spotted free money and flooded the market. However, the Russian, along with several others, such as Volandri, Andreev etc does have a history of highly suspicious matches and quite correctly in my view, Betfair have suspended payments on this match.
I would imagine that Betfair will eventually settle and the ATP's inquiry will result in no findings of foul play, but this sort of thing will eventually ruin the sport if nothing is done to prevent the practice of match fixing, which is much more common than many would like to believe.
Wednesday, 1 August 2007
Washington & Poland - Day 3
Jose Acasuso, Igor Andreev and Tommy Haas. What a trio to have your faith and cash tied up in. It's a bit like waiting for a cheque to turn up 'in the post', betting on any of these three characters; you'd like to think it would turn up and then curse your own naivety when it inevitably doesn't.
Frustrating Argentine, Acasuso, hadn't reached a tour level quarter-final for three months until today, when he reached that stage with a straight sets dismissal of fellow countryman, Sergio Roitman and gave me the opportunity to lay my original bet off and therefore reduce the undoubted pain of watching one of his matches. Acasuso has three ATP titles to his name, but at the moment is in severe danger of dropping out of the top 100 and having to qualify for tournaments in future. He needs a good run here and in Montreal to avert that possibility and I am hoping that this will be his motivation for success in Poland this week. He will next face off against Florian Mayer in a match that may well involve a choke or two with these guys as the participants.
Still on Poland's red dirt, my bottom half of the draw bets are still looking good, as Igor Andreev progressed to the quarters in straight sets this afternoon against local favourite Michal Przysiezny and set himself up with a clash with Gilles Simon, against whom the Russian has never played in a tour event. Andreev will start favourite though and a win might set up a dream semi-final with Steve Darcis. It doesn't pay to get ahead of oneself though, as Darcis has a tough match with Robredo in the morning.
In the US capital, Tim Henman went on to lose his first rounder with American giant, John Isner and I fear for his top 100 place, with Tim being just a single place above Acasuso at 73 in the rankings and on the slide.
Tommy Haas finally begins his campaign in the early hours against Alajandro Falla and I hear that the German is fit and ready to go in this event. There again, I've heard that before...is that the doorbell? That's got to be the postman surely..no?
Frustrating Argentine, Acasuso, hadn't reached a tour level quarter-final for three months until today, when he reached that stage with a straight sets dismissal of fellow countryman, Sergio Roitman and gave me the opportunity to lay my original bet off and therefore reduce the undoubted pain of watching one of his matches. Acasuso has three ATP titles to his name, but at the moment is in severe danger of dropping out of the top 100 and having to qualify for tournaments in future. He needs a good run here and in Montreal to avert that possibility and I am hoping that this will be his motivation for success in Poland this week. He will next face off against Florian Mayer in a match that may well involve a choke or two with these guys as the participants.
Still on Poland's red dirt, my bottom half of the draw bets are still looking good, as Igor Andreev progressed to the quarters in straight sets this afternoon against local favourite Michal Przysiezny and set himself up with a clash with Gilles Simon, against whom the Russian has never played in a tour event. Andreev will start favourite though and a win might set up a dream semi-final with Steve Darcis. It doesn't pay to get ahead of oneself though, as Darcis has a tough match with Robredo in the morning.
In the US capital, Tim Henman went on to lose his first rounder with American giant, John Isner and I fear for his top 100 place, with Tim being just a single place above Acasuso at 73 in the rankings and on the slide.
Tommy Haas finally begins his campaign in the early hours against Alajandro Falla and I hear that the German is fit and ready to go in this event. There again, I've heard that before...is that the doorbell? That's got to be the postman surely..no?
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