Things are looking up today, as predicted, thanks to young Steve Darcis in Poland.
What I considered to be the bet of the day today was recent Amersfoort winner, Steve Darcis to roll over journeyman Chilean, Nicolas Massu. The young Belgian made me sweat on it though, as he threw away a 5-2 lead in the first set to lose it 10-8 in the breaker and then had to stave off two match points on his own serve in the second before coming through 6-7, 7-6, 6-4.
This was a four point single bet at 4-6 and during the match I took someone's offer of 70-1 on Betfair for the young man for the tournament. I don't see Darcis winning this event, but I think he will give Tommy Robredo a decent match in the second round in what will be a battle of the red and white Sergio Tacchini shirts. I wonder if they'll both turn up in them tomorrow and there will be a sartorial incident at courtside?! Robredo struggled badly again today against a Polish wildcard and is no lock to take Stevey D out. Anyway, if Darcis wins he'll hopefully be heading towards a quarter final match-up with Igor Andreev and if he doesn't I will have layed him at much less than 70's, so I'm happy with the young Belgian's work today.
Elsewhere, Tommy Haas doesn't begin his campaign for the Legg Mason Classic trophy until tomorrow and as I write, good old Timmy Henman is struggling against number 416 in the world, John Isner, in his first round encounter. They are into the decider and it's sad to see Henman struggling like he has in the last couple of years.
Buoyed by a small return to form today, I will be looking to build on it tommorow with another match bet win or two.
Tuesday, 31 July 2007
Monday, 30 July 2007
Washington & Poland - Day 1
Well, it appears that within the space of a few days I have gone from being the 'Goldenballs' of tennis betting to a sort of latter day King Midas in reverse. Everything I touch at the moment is turning brown and I'm having one of those nightmare losing streaks, where every decision is the wrong one and I need to turn the corner asap.
Every punter is familiar with great runs, where your 33-1's and 50-1's are coming in and you can see opportunities almost before they arrive, however you know you're only one bad bet away from going in the other direction and it's very difficult to find your way out. At least I'm not the only one; the RP tipster is having an absolute shocker, tipping Davydenko last week (lost in the first round), Robredo also last week (lost in the quarters) and Almagro this week (lost in the first round in Poland today). Del McGovern at the Mirror is faring just as badly, with just two winning tennis match bets from the last seven and a three match losing streak currently.
I dread the post Wimbledon month, as it really is just dodgy clay courters going through the motions and top stars honing their hard court games for the Masters Series and US Open and it's tough to tell who's trying and who isn't and strange results ensue. Therefore I have been finding other bets to top up my profit and having been on numerous cricket tours with England I am clued up enough to bet on it on occasion.
Sadly, England's pathetic collapse in the test today after Vaughan had batted them almost to safety has cost me yet more profit and I am having to be watchful of my bets this week.
My tentative tips for Poland started well today, with Jose Acasuso winning easily against Werner Eschauer and Igor Andreev was a set up against Nicolas Lapentti. Acasuso has a good record here, winning once and a finalist on another occasion, so I'm hopeful of a decent run, however to say he's unreliable is a gross understatement.
Time to get back to betting basics and back on the winning trail tomorrow..
Every punter is familiar with great runs, where your 33-1's and 50-1's are coming in and you can see opportunities almost before they arrive, however you know you're only one bad bet away from going in the other direction and it's very difficult to find your way out. At least I'm not the only one; the RP tipster is having an absolute shocker, tipping Davydenko last week (lost in the first round), Robredo also last week (lost in the quarters) and Almagro this week (lost in the first round in Poland today). Del McGovern at the Mirror is faring just as badly, with just two winning tennis match bets from the last seven and a three match losing streak currently.
I dread the post Wimbledon month, as it really is just dodgy clay courters going through the motions and top stars honing their hard court games for the Masters Series and US Open and it's tough to tell who's trying and who isn't and strange results ensue. Therefore I have been finding other bets to top up my profit and having been on numerous cricket tours with England I am clued up enough to bet on it on occasion.
Sadly, England's pathetic collapse in the test today after Vaughan had batted them almost to safety has cost me yet more profit and I am having to be watchful of my bets this week.
My tentative tips for Poland started well today, with Jose Acasuso winning easily against Werner Eschauer and Igor Andreev was a set up against Nicolas Lapentti. Acasuso has a good record here, winning once and a finalist on another occasion, so I'm hopeful of a decent run, however to say he's unreliable is a gross understatement.
Time to get back to betting basics and back on the winning trail tomorrow..
Washington & Poland - advice
Just the two tournaments to concentrate on this week and thankfully it's the penultimate clay court event of the year. I am totally sick of the red dirt and it's time to play some proper tennis on a proper surface instead of sliding around in vile red stuff and having to put my faith and hard earned in the hands of the likes of Jose Acasuso and Filippo Vollandri.
The clay event is in Sopot, Poland and looking at the draw yesterday it looks very much to me like I may as well chuck the tungsten at it and back whoever it lands on. We have the usual suspects in the field and as usual we have Davydenko and Robredo at the head of the market. These two should be avoided like the plague at the moment and that said one of them will probably go on to win, but they're both in poor form and can't be advised at the odds.
The bottom half of the draw looks the easier and common sense suggests that the pure clay courters, ie those that have no chance on hard courts will be trying that bit harder for a final chance of success with only the event in Bucharest to come in September. This narrows the list down to the likes of Massu, Horna, Volandri etc, but would you trust any of these characters with your wedge? I think not and so I wouldn't have anything like a decent bet on this event even if I was successful last week. The only wager I'm going to have is a two point win on Igor Andreev, purely because he hasn't won one of these yet and really should have done by now, he's in the good half and the odds are half decent. For an outside punt, it's always worth a couple of quid on Jose Acasuso in the slim hope of him making an effort. He showed signs of life last week and took Ferrer the distance so if you feel like a punt he could be the one.
Over in Washington, I've broken one of my golden rules of betting and backed Tommy Haas for victory in the Legg Mason Classic. The German was 11-2 with Bet365 yesterday, which is good value for a man who wins regularly on the US hard court season and has won early in the swing before. He is in the easier bottom half of the draw and I can't see anyone to touch him in his section unless Safin has a good week. The only problem of course, as ever with Haas, will be the possibility of a withdrawal through injury, but 11-2 is a decent enough price to chance it with, so a five point win is the bet. Andy Roddick will be a warm favourite, but Haas has a 6-3 career record over A-Rod and the American lost to Frank Dancevic a couple of days ago and is poor value at around 2-1 in the trickier side of the draw.
The clay event is in Sopot, Poland and looking at the draw yesterday it looks very much to me like I may as well chuck the tungsten at it and back whoever it lands on. We have the usual suspects in the field and as usual we have Davydenko and Robredo at the head of the market. These two should be avoided like the plague at the moment and that said one of them will probably go on to win, but they're both in poor form and can't be advised at the odds.
The bottom half of the draw looks the easier and common sense suggests that the pure clay courters, ie those that have no chance on hard courts will be trying that bit harder for a final chance of success with only the event in Bucharest to come in September. This narrows the list down to the likes of Massu, Horna, Volandri etc, but would you trust any of these characters with your wedge? I think not and so I wouldn't have anything like a decent bet on this event even if I was successful last week. The only wager I'm going to have is a two point win on Igor Andreev, purely because he hasn't won one of these yet and really should have done by now, he's in the good half and the odds are half decent. For an outside punt, it's always worth a couple of quid on Jose Acasuso in the slim hope of him making an effort. He showed signs of life last week and took Ferrer the distance so if you feel like a punt he could be the one.
Over in Washington, I've broken one of my golden rules of betting and backed Tommy Haas for victory in the Legg Mason Classic. The German was 11-2 with Bet365 yesterday, which is good value for a man who wins regularly on the US hard court season and has won early in the swing before. He is in the easier bottom half of the draw and I can't see anyone to touch him in his section unless Safin has a good week. The only problem of course, as ever with Haas, will be the possibility of a withdrawal through injury, but 11-2 is a decent enough price to chance it with, so a five point win is the bet. Andy Roddick will be a warm favourite, but Haas has a 6-3 career record over A-Rod and the American lost to Frank Dancevic a couple of days ago and is poor value at around 2-1 in the trickier side of the draw.
Austria, Croatia & Indy wrap
Typical! Absolutely typical. The week was a complete disaster in the end and one which I'm putting behind me straight away.
Two guys that I backed last week, Tursunov and Moya decided that they would in fact win this week instead and the guy who I backed this week lost in the final, leaving me with a huge loss that has set me back a month in terms of funds.
The week had started well with a couple of winning wagers, but then Robby Ginepri lost in the first round in Indianapolis and most importantly, Novak Djokovic went out to a qualifier in Croatia, taking my maximum bet fundage with him. My saver bets to cover Starace's possible loss went wrong too along with a couple of individual match bets. All told it was a shambles.
Of course, it could have all turned out nicely yesterday if Potito Starace had done one of two things; either lost in straight sets as it looked like he would when a break down in the first set, or win the match, which it looked like he would when a set up and in control of the match. Neither of these things happened and I clung on to a maximum profit policy that in fact led to a hefty loss.
Still, one has to take these things on the chin and looking on the bright side, I have had a winner or finalist in the last three weeks now at big prices, so I just a tweak here or there with my match trading and some better fortune and I'm back in the game, starting today in Washington.
Two guys that I backed last week, Tursunov and Moya decided that they would in fact win this week instead and the guy who I backed this week lost in the final, leaving me with a huge loss that has set me back a month in terms of funds.
The week had started well with a couple of winning wagers, but then Robby Ginepri lost in the first round in Indianapolis and most importantly, Novak Djokovic went out to a qualifier in Croatia, taking my maximum bet fundage with him. My saver bets to cover Starace's possible loss went wrong too along with a couple of individual match bets. All told it was a shambles.
Of course, it could have all turned out nicely yesterday if Potito Starace had done one of two things; either lost in straight sets as it looked like he would when a break down in the first set, or win the match, which it looked like he would when a set up and in control of the match. Neither of these things happened and I clung on to a maximum profit policy that in fact led to a hefty loss.
Still, one has to take these things on the chin and looking on the bright side, I have had a winner or finalist in the last three weeks now at big prices, so I just a tweak here or there with my match trading and some better fortune and I'm back in the game, starting today in Washington.
Sunday, 29 July 2007
Austria, Croatia & Indy - a ray of hope
If I could just concentrate solely on picking winners of tennis tournaments and curtail my individual match betting to the occasional bet, I would be considerably richer for it.
My pre-event bet on Potito Starace has followed in the footsteps of Mathieu and Stepanek by reaching the final, this time at a best priced 31-1 and an average of 28-1. However, the rest of the week's activities means that Starace must go close in the final today in order to restore parity to my ailing finances.
The problem with backing someone like a Starace is that you're never confident of victory against the top players and a lay-off is required to ensure a profitable outcome. This was the case yesterday when my weekly losses meant that I had to lay Starace a bit against Calleri in the semi finals to make sure I came out on top in the (very likely) event of an Italian defeat. Of course, I wasn't banking on Calleri playing some truly awful tennis and Starace winning in straight sets. I watched the match on live stream and didn't see the stats, but the defeated Argentinian made so many unforced errors and served appallingly all match, handing Starace the win before I had chance to manoeuvre the liability.
Anyway, at least I have another finalist and a chance to at least end this week almost level, depending on what sort of opportunities arise in today's match. I was hoping for the final to be against Verdasco, but Juan Monaco put paid to that, so all sensible thought leads to a Monaco victory today. More alteration of my investment is required I think.
Thankfully, the post-Roland Garros clay court muppetry season is almost over now and I can get back to the hard court swing and the build up to the US Open, where players will actually be making an effort to win matches and tv coverage will be plentiful.
My pre-event bet on Potito Starace has followed in the footsteps of Mathieu and Stepanek by reaching the final, this time at a best priced 31-1 and an average of 28-1. However, the rest of the week's activities means that Starace must go close in the final today in order to restore parity to my ailing finances.
The problem with backing someone like a Starace is that you're never confident of victory against the top players and a lay-off is required to ensure a profitable outcome. This was the case yesterday when my weekly losses meant that I had to lay Starace a bit against Calleri in the semi finals to make sure I came out on top in the (very likely) event of an Italian defeat. Of course, I wasn't banking on Calleri playing some truly awful tennis and Starace winning in straight sets. I watched the match on live stream and didn't see the stats, but the defeated Argentinian made so many unforced errors and served appallingly all match, handing Starace the win before I had chance to manoeuvre the liability.
Anyway, at least I have another finalist and a chance to at least end this week almost level, depending on what sort of opportunities arise in today's match. I was hoping for the final to be against Verdasco, but Juan Monaco put paid to that, so all sensible thought leads to a Monaco victory today. More alteration of my investment is required I think.
Thankfully, the post-Roland Garros clay court muppetry season is almost over now and I can get back to the hard court swing and the build up to the US Open, where players will actually be making an effort to win matches and tv coverage will be plentiful.
Friday, 27 July 2007
Austria, Croatia & Indy - Desperation strikes
My betting activities were curtailed again today by a power cut and my singular ability to pick a winner. You wouldn't have thought it was that hard to pick a winner at tennis, being as there are but two competitors, the odds are that picking the victor would be possible at least some of the time? Usually, it comes as naturally to me as choking comes naturally to Sergio Garcia, but the last couple of days have seen my previously healthy betting pot take a bit of a hit.
Djokovic losing in Croatia set me on the road to the poor house and it could have been much worse today, save for another bizarre match involving this week's potential saviour, Potito Starace.
The tall Italian took on countryman Andreas Seppi today in the quarters at Kitzbuhel and he started in a fashion that your average club player would be appalled with. Starace was broken four times in the first set, winning a diabolical 20 percent of points behind his first serve and managing just 13 points in total. He lost that one 6-1.
Things scarcely got any better in the second, as Seppi served for the match at 5-4 and had match points that for the second consecutive match, Starace held off and went on to take the set 7-5.
It was an amazing turnaround, but Seppi was far from done, coming back from a break down to force a final set tie break shoot out, in which both players had match points before my new favourite Potito Starace, the pride of Benevento, came through on his third match point to take the honours and my wedge into the semi finals.
The Italian has a one-all record against each of the three other semi finalists, so on paper he does stand a fighting chance of victory, but first he must face last year's title winner, Agustin Calleri, who has been in poor form recently, but will go off at around 8-13 favourite against my hope. I haven't been able to watch any of Starace's matches thus far, but the stats are none too encouraging and he will have to play much better tomorrow to have a chance.
Of course, the Starace success was marred by my stubborn belief that Tommy Robredo would take out Juan Monaco in the other morning quarter final. How wrong I was on that one! Monaco came through at a canter in the decider by 6-2. I was a good six points down on that bet and thank god that at that point the lights quite literally went out on me.
Djokovic losing in Croatia set me on the road to the poor house and it could have been much worse today, save for another bizarre match involving this week's potential saviour, Potito Starace.
The tall Italian took on countryman Andreas Seppi today in the quarters at Kitzbuhel and he started in a fashion that your average club player would be appalled with. Starace was broken four times in the first set, winning a diabolical 20 percent of points behind his first serve and managing just 13 points in total. He lost that one 6-1.
Things scarcely got any better in the second, as Seppi served for the match at 5-4 and had match points that for the second consecutive match, Starace held off and went on to take the set 7-5.
It was an amazing turnaround, but Seppi was far from done, coming back from a break down to force a final set tie break shoot out, in which both players had match points before my new favourite Potito Starace, the pride of Benevento, came through on his third match point to take the honours and my wedge into the semi finals.
The Italian has a one-all record against each of the three other semi finalists, so on paper he does stand a fighting chance of victory, but first he must face last year's title winner, Agustin Calleri, who has been in poor form recently, but will go off at around 8-13 favourite against my hope. I haven't been able to watch any of Starace's matches thus far, but the stats are none too encouraging and he will have to play much better tomorrow to have a chance.
Of course, the Starace success was marred by my stubborn belief that Tommy Robredo would take out Juan Monaco in the other morning quarter final. How wrong I was on that one! Monaco came through at a canter in the decider by 6-2. I was a good six points down on that bet and thank god that at that point the lights quite literally went out on me.
Thursday, 26 July 2007
Austria, Croatia & Indy - It's looking bleak
Keep your eye on the ball is a phrase that is very much overused in gym classes and sports training grounds worldwide and a fundamental rule of tennis betting. Sadly, due to a bizarre combination of Alan Yentob, the BBC TV Studios car park, a troupe of dancing girls, Jimmy Saville, a horse hospital and some of London's finest hostelries, I was off duty when my banker of the week, Novak Djokovic managed to lose to a qualifier in the second round in Umag.
This lack of concentration has contributed to a severe dent being made in the Calvert funds and combined with defeats for Werner Escahuer, Olivier Patience and Robby Ginepri, has left me with only Potito Starace batting for me this week. I knew the time was up on the Olivier Patience punt when my old mate Derek McGovern of The Mirror tipped Patience as his bet of the day to beat Igor Andreev. Needless to say, Andreev won in straight sets, but what can you expect from the man who tipped Djokovic to beat Nadal in the Wimbledon semi's the day after a five hour five setter. Hope you didn't lose too much on that one Del.
With my strategy for the week in tatters, it was with more than a touch of frustration and with the air of a condemned man that I logged on to the match scoreboard of Starace v Florian Mayer in Kitzbuhel to check on my man's progress.
Sure enough, Starace managed to claim just three points on the German's serve in a first set which was lost 6-4 and when Mayer served for the match at 6-5 and 40-15 in the second set, the fat lady was well and truly about to crank up her vocal chords.
But no, the battling Italian saved the day with the help of a timely choke from the German and we were into a tie-break, which Starace won by seven points to nil. Mayer had lost it big time from the brink of victory and a decider got under way with an immediate break of serve in the favour of my man. Of course, Starace was himself broken in the next game, but broke straight back and went on to take the match 6-2 and now faces a quarter final match up against fellow countryman Andreas Seppi. Disaster averted by the skin of my teeth and if Starace can take care of Seppi, he has a great chance of reaching the final, as the bottom quarter contains, Nicolas Lapentti, Agustin Calleri and Diego Hartfield, none of whom should hold any fears for my bet, but in reality will probably mean Seppi will turn him over in straight sets.
Elsewhere, the day became steadily worse, as I lost a few trades and was guilty of having a couple of unwise punts in an effort to claw some of the Djokovic cash back and ended up very much down on the day.
This lack of concentration has contributed to a severe dent being made in the Calvert funds and combined with defeats for Werner Escahuer, Olivier Patience and Robby Ginepri, has left me with only Potito Starace batting for me this week. I knew the time was up on the Olivier Patience punt when my old mate Derek McGovern of The Mirror tipped Patience as his bet of the day to beat Igor Andreev. Needless to say, Andreev won in straight sets, but what can you expect from the man who tipped Djokovic to beat Nadal in the Wimbledon semi's the day after a five hour five setter. Hope you didn't lose too much on that one Del.
With my strategy for the week in tatters, it was with more than a touch of frustration and with the air of a condemned man that I logged on to the match scoreboard of Starace v Florian Mayer in Kitzbuhel to check on my man's progress.
Sure enough, Starace managed to claim just three points on the German's serve in a first set which was lost 6-4 and when Mayer served for the match at 6-5 and 40-15 in the second set, the fat lady was well and truly about to crank up her vocal chords.
But no, the battling Italian saved the day with the help of a timely choke from the German and we were into a tie-break, which Starace won by seven points to nil. Mayer had lost it big time from the brink of victory and a decider got under way with an immediate break of serve in the favour of my man. Of course, Starace was himself broken in the next game, but broke straight back and went on to take the match 6-2 and now faces a quarter final match up against fellow countryman Andreas Seppi. Disaster averted by the skin of my teeth and if Starace can take care of Seppi, he has a great chance of reaching the final, as the bottom quarter contains, Nicolas Lapentti, Agustin Calleri and Diego Hartfield, none of whom should hold any fears for my bet, but in reality will probably mean Seppi will turn him over in straight sets.
Elsewhere, the day became steadily worse, as I lost a few trades and was guilty of having a couple of unwise punts in an effort to claw some of the Djokovic cash back and ended up very much down on the day.
Tuesday, 24 July 2007
Austria, Croatia & Indy - Day 1
Ahhh, Izaak Newton.. what a great man. The whole apple thing; the man called it correctly. What goes up must come down and indeed after the heady heights of Sunday night, little Robby Ginepri brought me back down to earth by being dumped from Indianapolis in round one after being a set up against Germany's improving Michael Berrer. Still, stakes were small and all in all I had another decent day yesterday.
The putrid English summer weather for once came in handy, assisting India to a scarcely deserved but most welcome draw at Lords and added funds to the Calvert coffers simultaneously. The odds on this one were all over the place on Monday afternoon, with punters basically gambling on if and when and for how long it would rain, so the sensibles backed high and layed low on the draw and came out with a healthy profit.
The unfortunate readers of the RP will soon be forming an orderly queue outside the poor house if recent events are to be continued. Their tennis chap tipped Davydenko for the Croatian tourny and for the third week running the busy Russian was dispatched in the first round. Happily for me, I backed Gilles Simon to achieve the win and spared a thought for those poor souls blindly following the RP.
My 'once in a blue moon' tip, Olivier Patience, proceeded comfortably to round two in Kitzbuhel with a straight sets win, however now faces dodgy Russian Igor Andreev. Drawing parallels with the Dutch Open, Steve Darcis also was a huge price and had to beat Andreev on his way to victory. Lightning couldn't.... could it? Worth a tiny punt at this morning's 140-1 though.
So, coffers swelled, but a man down in Indy, I will wait and see what happens with Roddick. I may get a break like last week's brief show of 3-1 about Nadal if the A-Rod struggles at any time. Don't see it happening tonight against Kuznetsov and in any case it will happen at about 2 am, so I'll be patient I think.
Over in Kitzbuhel, my tentative punts Starace and Eschauer kick off tomorrow, so I will have a look at today's coupon shortly for potential profit opportunities.
The putrid English summer weather for once came in handy, assisting India to a scarcely deserved but most welcome draw at Lords and added funds to the Calvert coffers simultaneously. The odds on this one were all over the place on Monday afternoon, with punters basically gambling on if and when and for how long it would rain, so the sensibles backed high and layed low on the draw and came out with a healthy profit.
The unfortunate readers of the RP will soon be forming an orderly queue outside the poor house if recent events are to be continued. Their tennis chap tipped Davydenko for the Croatian tourny and for the third week running the busy Russian was dispatched in the first round. Happily for me, I backed Gilles Simon to achieve the win and spared a thought for those poor souls blindly following the RP.
My 'once in a blue moon' tip, Olivier Patience, proceeded comfortably to round two in Kitzbuhel with a straight sets win, however now faces dodgy Russian Igor Andreev. Drawing parallels with the Dutch Open, Steve Darcis also was a huge price and had to beat Andreev on his way to victory. Lightning couldn't.... could it? Worth a tiny punt at this morning's 140-1 though.
So, coffers swelled, but a man down in Indy, I will wait and see what happens with Roddick. I may get a break like last week's brief show of 3-1 about Nadal if the A-Rod struggles at any time. Don't see it happening tonight against Kuznetsov and in any case it will happen at about 2 am, so I'll be patient I think.
Over in Kitzbuhel, my tentative punts Starace and Eschauer kick off tomorrow, so I will have a look at today's coupon shortly for potential profit opportunities.
Monday, 23 July 2007
Weekly advice - Austria, Croatia & Indy
The week's most lucrative tournament as far as prize money goes take place on the clay of Kitzbuhel, Austria and it looks wide open to me with no Nadal to screw up the prices at the head of the market.
The top half of the draw here looks impossible to call, with all the big guns and inconsistent types being drawn together, so it could pay to have a bit of fun with a big priced outsider from the bottom half, as none of the favourites are worth backing in my view. Robredo has gone out in the first round two weeks running and Youzhny is a terrible price for a man who has lost to Koubek and Steve Darcis in the last fortnight. Andreev is very much under suspicion at the moment after that match with Volandri in Amersfoort and JC Ferrero always finds one too good these days and has a rematch with Lopez to contend with early.
I couldn't recommend a wager on this event, but I might have a quiet investment on Potito Starace, who has the best of the draw, is fresh and has as much chance as any of the favourites at around the 25-1 and upwards mark. Amersfoort finalist Werner Eschauer may go well again in his home country in the same section of the draw at around 50-1 and for a huge price in the top half of the draw there's Olivier Patience, trading at over 100's to consider. This Frenchman played brilliantly to take Djokovic to five sets at Roland Garros and has been playing well in Challengers, so if there's to be another Steve Darcis here, Patience could be the man.
The other clay court event this week takes place in Umag, Croatia and the field seems to consist purely of players whose surname ends in ic. We've got Djokovic, Ljubicic, Cilic, Tipsarevic, etc etc and I like the look of Novak Djokovic for this one.
Being a Serbian, I'm sure that Djokovic would love to win this tournament in Croatia and I can't see much in the field to stop him quite honestly. Fellow Serb, Janko Tipsarevic might give him a game in the quarters, but I can see little of concern until the final for the world number three. The only slight worry would be over fitness, but he's had a week off since his Wimbledon exertions, so I'm going all in on this one.
Andy Roddick loves the hard court tournament in Indianapolis, has contested three of the last four finals and won two of them, so it's hard to see him not being in the shake up at the weekend. The price on A-Rod is a bit skinny at a shade of odds on but if you can sniff out a better price anywhere then it's probably a wise investment.
The bottom half of the draw looks wide open with defending champion James Blake and other hit or miss types, such as Tursunov and Monfils swinging away there too. Big serving Croatian giant Ivo Karlovic will fancy his chances, although he a has a tough one first up with Kiefer, so it could be interesting to side with Robby Ginepri at Betfair's 40-1 currently.
The Floridian beat Roddick in the quarter's here in 2005 and whilst it is a bit of a punt given Ginepri's recent poor form and a tricky first rounder with Berrer, it is worth taking a chance that the return to the US hard courts will coincide with a return to his best tennis, which can trouble the top ranked stars.
The top half of the draw here looks impossible to call, with all the big guns and inconsistent types being drawn together, so it could pay to have a bit of fun with a big priced outsider from the bottom half, as none of the favourites are worth backing in my view. Robredo has gone out in the first round two weeks running and Youzhny is a terrible price for a man who has lost to Koubek and Steve Darcis in the last fortnight. Andreev is very much under suspicion at the moment after that match with Volandri in Amersfoort and JC Ferrero always finds one too good these days and has a rematch with Lopez to contend with early.
I couldn't recommend a wager on this event, but I might have a quiet investment on Potito Starace, who has the best of the draw, is fresh and has as much chance as any of the favourites at around the 25-1 and upwards mark. Amersfoort finalist Werner Eschauer may go well again in his home country in the same section of the draw at around 50-1 and for a huge price in the top half of the draw there's Olivier Patience, trading at over 100's to consider. This Frenchman played brilliantly to take Djokovic to five sets at Roland Garros and has been playing well in Challengers, so if there's to be another Steve Darcis here, Patience could be the man.
The other clay court event this week takes place in Umag, Croatia and the field seems to consist purely of players whose surname ends in ic. We've got Djokovic, Ljubicic, Cilic, Tipsarevic, etc etc and I like the look of Novak Djokovic for this one.
Being a Serbian, I'm sure that Djokovic would love to win this tournament in Croatia and I can't see much in the field to stop him quite honestly. Fellow Serb, Janko Tipsarevic might give him a game in the quarters, but I can see little of concern until the final for the world number three. The only slight worry would be over fitness, but he's had a week off since his Wimbledon exertions, so I'm going all in on this one.
Andy Roddick loves the hard court tournament in Indianapolis, has contested three of the last four finals and won two of them, so it's hard to see him not being in the shake up at the weekend. The price on A-Rod is a bit skinny at a shade of odds on but if you can sniff out a better price anywhere then it's probably a wise investment.
The bottom half of the draw looks wide open with defending champion James Blake and other hit or miss types, such as Tursunov and Monfils swinging away there too. Big serving Croatian giant Ivo Karlovic will fancy his chances, although he a has a tough one first up with Kiefer, so it could be interesting to side with Robby Ginepri at Betfair's 40-1 currently.
The Floridian beat Roddick in the quarter's here in 2005 and whilst it is a bit of a punt given Ginepri's recent poor form and a tricky first rounder with Berrer, it is worth taking a chance that the return to the US hard courts will coincide with a return to his best tennis, which can trouble the top ranked stars.
Weekly wrap - a 50 to 1 winner in LA
For the second consecutive week, I've managed to pick a tournament winner at a very nice price. Following on from Mathieu's success in Switzerland, my outside wager on Radek Stepanek obliged last night over in the Countrywide Classic in LA with a finals win over James Blake.
As this kind of success is not a regular occurrence I feel I'm entitled to blow my own trumpet a bit when I mention the starting price of 50 to 1 on Stepanek at the outset. Of course, I layed a bit off the Czech before the final to ensure an all profit outcome, but most of my hard earned was resting on Radek and his victory helped to soothe the pain of Tiger Woods' poor performance in The Open.
I was also collecting over in Stuttgart when my opportunist wager on Nadal obliged at odds of 3-1. I happened to be in the right place at the right time for that one, but it was welcome all the same.
In Holland, the Amersfoort tournament that I called as being too tricky for a wager was won by number 297 in the world, Steve (who) Darcis. Enough said.
I had a few nice individual match bets during the week (and a few losers) and in all have ended the week with a decent profit, which might be boosted today if the cricket finishes in a draw.
Lots of tennis events this week and no Nadal, so it's eyes down now for an in-depth look at the week's activities.
As this kind of success is not a regular occurrence I feel I'm entitled to blow my own trumpet a bit when I mention the starting price of 50 to 1 on Stepanek at the outset. Of course, I layed a bit off the Czech before the final to ensure an all profit outcome, but most of my hard earned was resting on Radek and his victory helped to soothe the pain of Tiger Woods' poor performance in The Open.
I was also collecting over in Stuttgart when my opportunist wager on Nadal obliged at odds of 3-1. I happened to be in the right place at the right time for that one, but it was welcome all the same.
In Holland, the Amersfoort tournament that I called as being too tricky for a wager was won by number 297 in the world, Steve (who) Darcis. Enough said.
I had a few nice individual match bets during the week (and a few losers) and in all have ended the week with a decent profit, which might be boosted today if the cricket finishes in a draw.
Lots of tennis events this week and no Nadal, so it's eyes down now for an in-depth look at the week's activities.
Saturday, 21 July 2007
Profit looms in LA and Stuttgart
Well, it looks like my predictions are paying off again this week. My 50-1 tip Radek Stepanek continued his smooth progress in LA last night and now faces a tough semi-final with Nicolas Kiefer. Time to lay off Stepanek and an all-profit outcome will be heading my way from the Countrywide Classic.
As predicted, the clay court tournament in Holland has proved to be impossible to call, with the winner now coming from either 33 year old first time ATP finalist Werner Eschauer or Steve Darcis, a little known Belgian, who I must confess I had never heard of before this event. Carlos Moya threw away his chances and my profit by collapsing in his semi with Eschauer after being a set up and firmly in control.
Better news surely in Stuttgart though, where my timely bet on Nadal (at 3-1) whilst the Pearl of Manacor was injured in his match with Kohlschreiber is looking very good indeed, as he is now in the final and has won 91 out of his last 92 on clay. If my glass was half empty I might throw into the equation the fact that Nadal's one loss was against a Swiss and he faces another in the final in the form of surprise contender Stanislas Wawrinka, who has been struggling with injury of late. Assuming the Spaniard's knee holds out, he should win comfortably regardless of the opposition.
On the individual bets front, I enjoyed a nice profit yesterday on Feliciano Lopez when he took out J C Ferrero in three sets in Stuttgart and today when Wawrinka came from a set down to beat Juan Ignacio Chela, also on Germany's red dirt. Chela was a winner for me in the previous round when he came back to beat Fernando Verdasco in a tough three setter.
Unlike the RP tipster, I didn't fancy a bar of Mikhail Youzhny in Amersfoort and consequently I had a one point bet on compatriot Evgeny Korolev to take care of him in their quarter final match up. Youzhny squeezed through this one but couldn't manage to beat Darcis at huge odds on and he doesn't look fit to me.
Over in Carnoustie, the Tiger looks for all the world like he's going to be the cause of a five point deficit for me in The Open. His golf has been all over the place, literally, for the last two and a half rounds and the appallingly attired Sergio Garcia will have to choke more spectacularly than Jean Van der Velde to lose it now. The Spaniard is clear of the field and clear of Tiger by eight shots, all of which makes him unbackable at a best priced 4-6.
As predicted, the clay court tournament in Holland has proved to be impossible to call, with the winner now coming from either 33 year old first time ATP finalist Werner Eschauer or Steve Darcis, a little known Belgian, who I must confess I had never heard of before this event. Carlos Moya threw away his chances and my profit by collapsing in his semi with Eschauer after being a set up and firmly in control.
Better news surely in Stuttgart though, where my timely bet on Nadal (at 3-1) whilst the Pearl of Manacor was injured in his match with Kohlschreiber is looking very good indeed, as he is now in the final and has won 91 out of his last 92 on clay. If my glass was half empty I might throw into the equation the fact that Nadal's one loss was against a Swiss and he faces another in the final in the form of surprise contender Stanislas Wawrinka, who has been struggling with injury of late. Assuming the Spaniard's knee holds out, he should win comfortably regardless of the opposition.
On the individual bets front, I enjoyed a nice profit yesterday on Feliciano Lopez when he took out J C Ferrero in three sets in Stuttgart and today when Wawrinka came from a set down to beat Juan Ignacio Chela, also on Germany's red dirt. Chela was a winner for me in the previous round when he came back to beat Fernando Verdasco in a tough three setter.
Unlike the RP tipster, I didn't fancy a bar of Mikhail Youzhny in Amersfoort and consequently I had a one point bet on compatriot Evgeny Korolev to take care of him in their quarter final match up. Youzhny squeezed through this one but couldn't manage to beat Darcis at huge odds on and he doesn't look fit to me.
Over in Carnoustie, the Tiger looks for all the world like he's going to be the cause of a five point deficit for me in The Open. His golf has been all over the place, literally, for the last two and a half rounds and the appallingly attired Sergio Garcia will have to choke more spectacularly than Jean Van der Velde to lose it now. The Spaniard is clear of the field and clear of Tiger by eight shots, all of which makes him unbackable at a best priced 4-6.
Thursday, 19 July 2007
Euro Dirt & the Countrywide Classic - Day 4
The tennis took a bit of a back seat today, as The Open began at Carnoustie and it will be of no surprise to learn that I've had a quiet investment on this. I managed to snag 3.6 -1 on Tiger Woods last week, so I had five points on golf's young master (shit, I've turned into Peter Alliss!) and I'm expecting him to go very close indeed.
It's easy to be tempted by the vast array of bets available on this tournament because of the fact that it is The Open and its tradition and majesty can cloud one's judgement. There are bets on players making/missing the cut, match bets, top player from a certain country/continent, winning score/margin, bets with/without Woods etc etc and the layers will be looking to these bets to make up for potential Tiger losses. I imagine there's a layer somewhere offering odds on the colour of Ian Poulter's trousers if you care to look hard enough. The smart cash was on a kind of tartan check affair in khaki and black of course. On the subject of golfing attire, can anyone tell me why Sergio Garcia has started dressing like an American pensioner on the course lately?
Nevertheless, there were some tennis bets around today and my first was Igor Andreev to beat Filippo Volandri in the second round in Amersfoot. A three point single at around 4/7 seemed sensible enough, although the match itself proved to be anything but sensible. I wouldn't like to say that this match was fixed, but it was very, very questionable at best and stunk to high heaven of some sort of outside involvement.
I watched most of the match on live stream and was watching the odds simultaneously and the betting patterns were extremely unusual. Example - Volandri's odds went out after he broke Andreev's serve in the first set and continued to drift from around evens to about 2-1 after he won the first set!! Andreev's price meanwhile came in to 1-3 even though he had lost the set. The prices were as if Volandri was injured, but no trainer was called and he didn't appear hurt or unwell. The Italian's price went out to 4-1 by the time the second set started, which he went on to lose easily (6-1) and all the time Andreev was unbackable at about 1-8 despite being a set down. I ended up making a small profit on the match, but the powers that be must have a look at this match as the betting patterns were bizarre and the players behaviour in their shotmaking was odd to say the least.
My demeanour improved in the afternoon when an unexpected profit opportunity arrived in the unlikely form of Rafael Nadal. The outright win market went haywire on Betfair when Nadal appeared to be badly injured in just the second game of his Stuttgart second round match with home favourite Philip Kohlschreiber and the King of Clay's price went out briefly to 3-1 for the tournament from 2-7. After a quick look at the state of the injury I decided that 3's was too good to miss and worth taking a chance on, so I had three points on it and layed some off at 2-5 soon after when Nadal appeared to be 100% fit. This leaves me with a nice little bet on Nadal and my other bets are all covered, leaving me with a possible profit and no chance of a loss.
Back over in Holland, Carlos Moya continued his smooth progress toward the final with an afternoon straight sets win over Zabaleta and next plays Werner Eschauer for a place in the semi's. I still have a bet on the questionable Igor Andreev in the bottom half as well, so all is well in Amersfoot (apart from the suspicious betting patterns of course!)
In Los Angeles, both my bets are taking on home opposition tonight. Radek Stepanek takes on Mardy Fish and Tursunov plays Vinny Spadea. Both should progress but I've had a top half saver in the event of Stepanek being turned over.
It's easy to be tempted by the vast array of bets available on this tournament because of the fact that it is The Open and its tradition and majesty can cloud one's judgement. There are bets on players making/missing the cut, match bets, top player from a certain country/continent, winning score/margin, bets with/without Woods etc etc and the layers will be looking to these bets to make up for potential Tiger losses. I imagine there's a layer somewhere offering odds on the colour of Ian Poulter's trousers if you care to look hard enough. The smart cash was on a kind of tartan check affair in khaki and black of course. On the subject of golfing attire, can anyone tell me why Sergio Garcia has started dressing like an American pensioner on the course lately?
Nevertheless, there were some tennis bets around today and my first was Igor Andreev to beat Filippo Volandri in the second round in Amersfoot. A three point single at around 4/7 seemed sensible enough, although the match itself proved to be anything but sensible. I wouldn't like to say that this match was fixed, but it was very, very questionable at best and stunk to high heaven of some sort of outside involvement.
I watched most of the match on live stream and was watching the odds simultaneously and the betting patterns were extremely unusual. Example - Volandri's odds went out after he broke Andreev's serve in the first set and continued to drift from around evens to about 2-1 after he won the first set!! Andreev's price meanwhile came in to 1-3 even though he had lost the set. The prices were as if Volandri was injured, but no trainer was called and he didn't appear hurt or unwell. The Italian's price went out to 4-1 by the time the second set started, which he went on to lose easily (6-1) and all the time Andreev was unbackable at about 1-8 despite being a set down. I ended up making a small profit on the match, but the powers that be must have a look at this match as the betting patterns were bizarre and the players behaviour in their shotmaking was odd to say the least.
My demeanour improved in the afternoon when an unexpected profit opportunity arrived in the unlikely form of Rafael Nadal. The outright win market went haywire on Betfair when Nadal appeared to be badly injured in just the second game of his Stuttgart second round match with home favourite Philip Kohlschreiber and the King of Clay's price went out briefly to 3-1 for the tournament from 2-7. After a quick look at the state of the injury I decided that 3's was too good to miss and worth taking a chance on, so I had three points on it and layed some off at 2-5 soon after when Nadal appeared to be 100% fit. This leaves me with a nice little bet on Nadal and my other bets are all covered, leaving me with a possible profit and no chance of a loss.
Back over in Holland, Carlos Moya continued his smooth progress toward the final with an afternoon straight sets win over Zabaleta and next plays Werner Eschauer for a place in the semi's. I still have a bet on the questionable Igor Andreev in the bottom half as well, so all is well in Amersfoot (apart from the suspicious betting patterns of course!)
In Los Angeles, both my bets are taking on home opposition tonight. Radek Stepanek takes on Mardy Fish and Tursunov plays Vinny Spadea. Both should progress but I've had a top half saver in the event of Stepanek being turned over.
Wednesday, 18 July 2007
Euro Dirt 2 & the Countrywide Classic - Day 3
A fairly quiet day on the tennis coupons today, with a sparse selection of matches to choose from, but proceedings got off to a distinctly more profitable start this morning than was the case yesterday.
A four point single on Evgeny Korolev at 10-11 to take care of Sergio Roitman in their second round encounter in Amersfoot came in handily in straight sets and set the tone for a small investment on Juan Ignacio Chela in the middle of his struggle against demonstrative Serb, Boris Pashanski, which the Argentine eventually won in three tough sets. The match in Stuttgart took almost three hours to complete and at least twenty minutes of that time can be contributed to the volatile Pashanski's line call querying, which had the chair umpire on and off court on many occasions to check the ball marks.
Match of the day in Amersfoot promised to be in-form Spaniard David Ferrer against countryman Fernando Verdasco. Their head-to-head stands at two apiece and the most recent of these was won by the unpredictable left hander Verdasco at Roland Garros in four sets. Ferrer is on fire at the moment though and only Nadal has won more matches on the red dirt this season, therefore I had a two point investment on a straight sets win for Ferrer at evens. Of course I picked one of those days when Verdasco hit all of the lines and generally couldn't miss and Ferrer was plagued by double faults and errors. If only Verdasco had played like that last week.
Final bet of the day was a two point win for Robin Haase to take out Nicolas Devilder in Amersfoot. I hoped for a home victory for the Dutchman and it worked out that way eventually after a tough three setter.
Over in Los Angeles, the overnight defeats of number one seed, Fernando Gonzalez and number four seed, David Nalbandian, left the top half of the draw looking open enough for my outside bet Radek Stepanek to have a great shout of significant progress in the event. I backed the Czech at 33-1 and 50-1 and the layers have now trimmed him to around the 10-1 mark. If he manages to beat hard court specialist Mardy Fish in the second round I could have a healthy profit opportunity on my hands.
Similarly, in Amersfoot, number one seed Nikolay Davydenko's defeat and losses for Massu, Almagro and Calleri in the top half of the draw appear to have left Carlos Moya a excellent opportunity to reach the final even at this early stage. In the closing stages of Davydenko's loss, I got on Moya at 5-1 and 11-2 for the tournament and he's now trading at around 3-1.
A four point single on Evgeny Korolev at 10-11 to take care of Sergio Roitman in their second round encounter in Amersfoot came in handily in straight sets and set the tone for a small investment on Juan Ignacio Chela in the middle of his struggle against demonstrative Serb, Boris Pashanski, which the Argentine eventually won in three tough sets. The match in Stuttgart took almost three hours to complete and at least twenty minutes of that time can be contributed to the volatile Pashanski's line call querying, which had the chair umpire on and off court on many occasions to check the ball marks.
Match of the day in Amersfoot promised to be in-form Spaniard David Ferrer against countryman Fernando Verdasco. Their head-to-head stands at two apiece and the most recent of these was won by the unpredictable left hander Verdasco at Roland Garros in four sets. Ferrer is on fire at the moment though and only Nadal has won more matches on the red dirt this season, therefore I had a two point investment on a straight sets win for Ferrer at evens. Of course I picked one of those days when Verdasco hit all of the lines and generally couldn't miss and Ferrer was plagued by double faults and errors. If only Verdasco had played like that last week.
Final bet of the day was a two point win for Robin Haase to take out Nicolas Devilder in Amersfoot. I hoped for a home victory for the Dutchman and it worked out that way eventually after a tough three setter.
Over in Los Angeles, the overnight defeats of number one seed, Fernando Gonzalez and number four seed, David Nalbandian, left the top half of the draw looking open enough for my outside bet Radek Stepanek to have a great shout of significant progress in the event. I backed the Czech at 33-1 and 50-1 and the layers have now trimmed him to around the 10-1 mark. If he manages to beat hard court specialist Mardy Fish in the second round I could have a healthy profit opportunity on my hands.
Similarly, in Amersfoot, number one seed Nikolay Davydenko's defeat and losses for Massu, Almagro and Calleri in the top half of the draw appear to have left Carlos Moya a excellent opportunity to reach the final even at this early stage. In the closing stages of Davydenko's loss, I got on Moya at 5-1 and 11-2 for the tournament and he's now trading at around 3-1.
Tuesday, 17 July 2007
Euro Dirt 2 & the Countrywide Classic - Day 2
Sufficient is it for me to say that the Calvert nails will be in a very sorry state by the end of the week if I have too many more days like today.
My morning got off to the worst possible start, when I decided most unwisely to place my faith in the questionable skills of Jose Acasuso at 1-2 over on the clay of Stuttgart. Once more I was fooled into: a) assuming that Acasuso was about to enter a hot streak and b) underestimating Austrian journeyman Stefan Koubek. Both of these ideas proved to be unwise and I was a couple of points down early doors when Koubek won in straight sets.
Annoyed by this I then relied on a five point single in the form of Marc Gicquel to take care of Belgian qualifier and number 297 in the world Steve Darcis. This was Darcis' first match at tour level this season and that form was clearly too good for Gicquel, who went out in straight sets.
So, seven points down and struggling badly. Who could I find to lift me out of the mire? Well, certainly not Nicolas Almagro. I had a two point bet on Werner Eschauer at 6-4 to take out the moody Spaniard, whose demeanour I figured wouldn't be the best after his thrashing in the Bastad final by Ferrer on Sunday. Thankfully for my sanity, the Austrian prevailed in straight sets and I was back on track.
The one that I really fancied today was Feliciano Lopez to defeat Carlos Berlocq at decent odds of 4-5, but dear god, I was made to suffer with this fixture. Lopez lost the opener on a tie break and seeing his price drift out to 15-8 I had another point on to add to my original three, as the match was extremely close and I still fancied Lopez to do the business. He did, but it wasn't pleasant viewing, as my man had to come back from match point down in the second set on a number of occasions; finally running out the winner 6-4 in the decider.
I had clawed my way back from potential disaster and I had to find a wager to lift me back into the black for the week and my choice for this task was my outside bet for the Countrywide Classic - Radek Stepanek. On paper a first round match up against Alex Bogdanovic should be about as comfortable a first round match as the Czech player could have hoped for and so it proved, with the Brit retiring after a 6-1 loss in the first set.
On the plus side today, Juan Monaco started his campaign in positive fashion with an easy straight sets victory over Jan Hernych for the loss of just three games and Dmitry Tursunov was also a straight sets winner late last night over in LA, so I have a couple of representatives in the second round. Janko Tipsarevic was beaten easily by Igor Andreev in Amersfoot, so I'm left with just a small wager on the Russian to hang onto in Holland.
Elsewhere, top seeds Gonzalez (LA) and Davydenko (Amersfoot) disappeared in the first round, as did Nalbandian (LA).
My morning got off to the worst possible start, when I decided most unwisely to place my faith in the questionable skills of Jose Acasuso at 1-2 over on the clay of Stuttgart. Once more I was fooled into: a) assuming that Acasuso was about to enter a hot streak and b) underestimating Austrian journeyman Stefan Koubek. Both of these ideas proved to be unwise and I was a couple of points down early doors when Koubek won in straight sets.
Annoyed by this I then relied on a five point single in the form of Marc Gicquel to take care of Belgian qualifier and number 297 in the world Steve Darcis. This was Darcis' first match at tour level this season and that form was clearly too good for Gicquel, who went out in straight sets.
So, seven points down and struggling badly. Who could I find to lift me out of the mire? Well, certainly not Nicolas Almagro. I had a two point bet on Werner Eschauer at 6-4 to take out the moody Spaniard, whose demeanour I figured wouldn't be the best after his thrashing in the Bastad final by Ferrer on Sunday. Thankfully for my sanity, the Austrian prevailed in straight sets and I was back on track.
The one that I really fancied today was Feliciano Lopez to defeat Carlos Berlocq at decent odds of 4-5, but dear god, I was made to suffer with this fixture. Lopez lost the opener on a tie break and seeing his price drift out to 15-8 I had another point on to add to my original three, as the match was extremely close and I still fancied Lopez to do the business. He did, but it wasn't pleasant viewing, as my man had to come back from match point down in the second set on a number of occasions; finally running out the winner 6-4 in the decider.
I had clawed my way back from potential disaster and I had to find a wager to lift me back into the black for the week and my choice for this task was my outside bet for the Countrywide Classic - Radek Stepanek. On paper a first round match up against Alex Bogdanovic should be about as comfortable a first round match as the Czech player could have hoped for and so it proved, with the Brit retiring after a 6-1 loss in the first set.
On the plus side today, Juan Monaco started his campaign in positive fashion with an easy straight sets victory over Jan Hernych for the loss of just three games and Dmitry Tursunov was also a straight sets winner late last night over in LA, so I have a couple of representatives in the second round. Janko Tipsarevic was beaten easily by Igor Andreev in Amersfoot, so I'm left with just a small wager on the Russian to hang onto in Holland.
Elsewhere, top seeds Gonzalez (LA) and Davydenko (Amersfoot) disappeared in the first round, as did Nalbandian (LA).
Monday, 16 July 2007
Euro Dirt 2 & the Countrywide Classic - Day 1
Having decided to concentrate my efforts this week on actual profit rather than basking in the glory of tipping winners, I got off to a good start today by having three points on Jiri Vanek at 8-13 to take out Ivan Navarro Pastor in the first round on the red clay of Stuttgart. The Czech obliged, comfortably running out the winner in straight sets 6-1 6-1. If only it were that easy more often!
Next to be responsible for my fortunes was Japanese player Akiko Morigami in the ladies tournament in Cincinatti. I was impressed with her at Wimbledon, when she pushed Venus Williams all the way and she was responsible for my obtaining a very good price about Venus for the tournament victory. Morigami was runner up in this event in 2005 and was expected to deal with France's Camille Pin in the first round here also at 8-13. Just the two points on this match was the bet and what a painful encounter this turned out to be. A three setter involving two tie breaks and numerous squandered chances for either player before Morigami stumbled over the line, having survived a match point in the second set breaker.
The next fixture of interest to me was Amer Delic to prevail in his first round encounter with Michael Berrer on the hard courts of Los Angeles. The RP tipped Delic for the tournament at a big price and whilst I can't say that I agree with that bet, Delic should have been too good for the German at around 4-7. He wasn't and my daily profit disappeared along with the RP's nap.
Elsewhere, top tenner Tommy Robredo was bundled out in the first round for the second week in a row after running into an in-form Gael Monfils and finding the Frenchman too good in a straight sets defeat.
Meanwhile, early prices are now out for the US Open and this is the time to get on Andrew Murray if you can get a price around the 66-1 and upwards mark. The Scot will be back shortly from his wrist injury and was playing some great tennis prior to the injury. I expect him to be a winner on the hard court swing this summer and it could pay to get on now whilst his price is reasonable. I've also had a small investment on Guillermo Canas at 100-1. The Argentine has a couple of wins over Federer to his name and has the ability to go far at a big price, so these two and Novak Djokovic will be my team to take on the big two, come the end of August.
Next to be responsible for my fortunes was Japanese player Akiko Morigami in the ladies tournament in Cincinatti. I was impressed with her at Wimbledon, when she pushed Venus Williams all the way and she was responsible for my obtaining a very good price about Venus for the tournament victory. Morigami was runner up in this event in 2005 and was expected to deal with France's Camille Pin in the first round here also at 8-13. Just the two points on this match was the bet and what a painful encounter this turned out to be. A three setter involving two tie breaks and numerous squandered chances for either player before Morigami stumbled over the line, having survived a match point in the second set breaker.
The next fixture of interest to me was Amer Delic to prevail in his first round encounter with Michael Berrer on the hard courts of Los Angeles. The RP tipped Delic for the tournament at a big price and whilst I can't say that I agree with that bet, Delic should have been too good for the German at around 4-7. He wasn't and my daily profit disappeared along with the RP's nap.
Elsewhere, top tenner Tommy Robredo was bundled out in the first round for the second week in a row after running into an in-form Gael Monfils and finding the Frenchman too good in a straight sets defeat.
Meanwhile, early prices are now out for the US Open and this is the time to get on Andrew Murray if you can get a price around the 66-1 and upwards mark. The Scot will be back shortly from his wrist injury and was playing some great tennis prior to the injury. I expect him to be a winner on the hard court swing this summer and it could pay to get on now whilst his price is reasonable. I've also had a small investment on Guillermo Canas at 100-1. The Argentine has a couple of wins over Federer to his name and has the ability to go far at a big price, so these two and Novak Djokovic will be my team to take on the big two, come the end of August.
Euro Dirt 2 & the Countrywide Classic - Tips
This week sees more European red dirt action and the start of the summer hard court season, with tournaments in Germany, Holland and the USA.
The biggest prize fund is over in Stuttgart, where Rafael Nadal is the hottest of hot favourites to take the honours at 2-7 generally. This is too skinny for an interest from me, although it's about as solid a 2-7 shot as you will find anywhere this week. I will be concentrating on individual matches here this week, as Nadal's presence kind of messes things up. Therefore, on the off chance of a Nadal slip up, I've gone for some value outside bets in the shape of last year's finalist Jose Acasuso at 64-1 and Juan Monaco at 54-1 with Betfair. They are both in Nadal's half, so they are very much the minimum of minimum bets. Monaco may have found the clay a bit on the slow side in Bastad last week and is a classy player in the right conditions, whilst Acasuso is never worth relying upon, but has his weeks and if he's on he can trouble the best.
The other clay court tournament, which takes place in Amersfoot, Holland looks in contrast a very open affair, with Russians Davydenko (surprise, surprise), Youzhny and Andreev heading the market. The first two lost in the first round last week, so will be fresh, but neither is in the best of form right now and could be worth opposing. Andreev has a solid chance, but is now too short at around 9-2 to be worth a serious punt and he also faces dangerous Serb, Janko Tipsarevic in the first round. I managed to get on early when Andreev was 7-1, although it's a tiny bet and I've had a stab at Tipsarevic when 40-1 was available with Betfair. Elsewhere, this has all the hallmarks of one of those tricky events and I don't really fancy a bet on this one.
The hard court season begins in earnest in Los Angeles, with the Countrywide Classic and I like the look of unpredictable Russian Dmitry Tursunov at 8-1 and outsider Radek Stepanek at 50-1.
Turunov lost in the final here last year to nemesis Tommy Haas, who has won this twice, but who is as usual injured this time and the bottom half of the draw looks easier to me. Tursunov will have to go through a moodier than ever Marat Safin, who has just dispensed with the services of the latest poor soul to have provided coaching services to the Russian and he looks very beatable right now. James Blake is the danger, but the two have never played so it will be an interesting match-up if it happens.
Stepanek seems to be returning to a bit of form after a bad injury hampered his progress and is worth a small investment at 50-1. He is in the top half of the draw, where my favourite player Fernando Gonzalez is the top dog, but who looks way too short to back at 5-2 and Stepanek thrashed him in straight sets in the French Open this year. Gonzalez will win events like this, but I believe him to best watched at the moment.
The biggest prize fund is over in Stuttgart, where Rafael Nadal is the hottest of hot favourites to take the honours at 2-7 generally. This is too skinny for an interest from me, although it's about as solid a 2-7 shot as you will find anywhere this week. I will be concentrating on individual matches here this week, as Nadal's presence kind of messes things up. Therefore, on the off chance of a Nadal slip up, I've gone for some value outside bets in the shape of last year's finalist Jose Acasuso at 64-1 and Juan Monaco at 54-1 with Betfair. They are both in Nadal's half, so they are very much the minimum of minimum bets. Monaco may have found the clay a bit on the slow side in Bastad last week and is a classy player in the right conditions, whilst Acasuso is never worth relying upon, but has his weeks and if he's on he can trouble the best.
The other clay court tournament, which takes place in Amersfoot, Holland looks in contrast a very open affair, with Russians Davydenko (surprise, surprise), Youzhny and Andreev heading the market. The first two lost in the first round last week, so will be fresh, but neither is in the best of form right now and could be worth opposing. Andreev has a solid chance, but is now too short at around 9-2 to be worth a serious punt and he also faces dangerous Serb, Janko Tipsarevic in the first round. I managed to get on early when Andreev was 7-1, although it's a tiny bet and I've had a stab at Tipsarevic when 40-1 was available with Betfair. Elsewhere, this has all the hallmarks of one of those tricky events and I don't really fancy a bet on this one.
The hard court season begins in earnest in Los Angeles, with the Countrywide Classic and I like the look of unpredictable Russian Dmitry Tursunov at 8-1 and outsider Radek Stepanek at 50-1.
Turunov lost in the final here last year to nemesis Tommy Haas, who has won this twice, but who is as usual injured this time and the bottom half of the draw looks easier to me. Tursunov will have to go through a moodier than ever Marat Safin, who has just dispensed with the services of the latest poor soul to have provided coaching services to the Russian and he looks very beatable right now. James Blake is the danger, but the two have never played so it will be an interesting match-up if it happens.
Stepanek seems to be returning to a bit of form after a bad injury hampered his progress and is worth a small investment at 50-1. He is in the top half of the draw, where my favourite player Fernando Gonzalez is the top dog, but who looks way too short to back at 5-2 and Stepanek thrashed him in straight sets in the French Open this year. Gonzalez will win events like this, but I believe him to best watched at the moment.
Newport and Euro Dirt wrap
It was a long drawn out week of tennis watching, the culmination of which ended with me tending gingerly to a couple of painful mouth ulcers and getting the calculator out to try and work out how and why I finished the week out of pocket.
My bets were very close to being perfect last week. I tipped and backed the winner of the Swiss Open, Paul-Henri Mathieu at 14-1 and also had the runners up in Newport (Nicolas Mahut, advised at 4-1) and in Bastad (Nicolas Almagro, advised at 8 to 1).
Sadly, I was still in bed when the semi's of the Swiss kicked off surprisingly early, and was shocked to see my other tournament bet, Igor Andreev losing to Andreas Seppi. Because I was sitting pretty with the faves in both semi's, it looked almost certain that I would have an all-profit final with Andreev the expected victor. It didn't turn out that way, but thanks to some nimble finger work I took advantage of some very generous laying of Seppi by a hapless punter during the final set and the subsequent breaker and ended up with an all profit final anyway. Mathieu took it - just about - but my profit was diminished rather by Andreev's defeat.
Over in Sweden, my man Almagro prevailed in a strange three setter against Carlos Moya in the semi's, so I layed him off at 5-2 for the match-up against David Ferrer, as I didn't feel that Almagro's streaky play would make much impression against the solid form of Ferrer. I was right, but the tournament yielded no profit as a result.
It was a similar story on the grass of Newport, as the worst case scenario of my tip Mahut having to play awkward veteran Fabrice Santoro transpired. No-one ever really knows what to expect in a Santoro match and Mahut looked bemused throughout, never playing to the best of his ability in a disappointing straight sets loss. As a Santoro precaution, I had layed Mahut at 8/13 before the match and came out with a small profit, but it was a disheartening performance from the young Frenchman.
All in all, thanks to my losing multiple and other minimum bet losses, I somehow managed to end the week down by 3 points, which isn't too bad, but it was looking so promising on Friday and it was a good week tipping-wise. Three finalists and a semi finalist from four tips is pretty good going by any standards and considerably better than the Racing Post's punts.
My bets were very close to being perfect last week. I tipped and backed the winner of the Swiss Open, Paul-Henri Mathieu at 14-1 and also had the runners up in Newport (Nicolas Mahut, advised at 4-1) and in Bastad (Nicolas Almagro, advised at 8 to 1).
Sadly, I was still in bed when the semi's of the Swiss kicked off surprisingly early, and was shocked to see my other tournament bet, Igor Andreev losing to Andreas Seppi. Because I was sitting pretty with the faves in both semi's, it looked almost certain that I would have an all-profit final with Andreev the expected victor. It didn't turn out that way, but thanks to some nimble finger work I took advantage of some very generous laying of Seppi by a hapless punter during the final set and the subsequent breaker and ended up with an all profit final anyway. Mathieu took it - just about - but my profit was diminished rather by Andreev's defeat.
Over in Sweden, my man Almagro prevailed in a strange three setter against Carlos Moya in the semi's, so I layed him off at 5-2 for the match-up against David Ferrer, as I didn't feel that Almagro's streaky play would make much impression against the solid form of Ferrer. I was right, but the tournament yielded no profit as a result.
It was a similar story on the grass of Newport, as the worst case scenario of my tip Mahut having to play awkward veteran Fabrice Santoro transpired. No-one ever really knows what to expect in a Santoro match and Mahut looked bemused throughout, never playing to the best of his ability in a disappointing straight sets loss. As a Santoro precaution, I had layed Mahut at 8/13 before the match and came out with a small profit, but it was a disheartening performance from the young Frenchman.
All in all, thanks to my losing multiple and other minimum bet losses, I somehow managed to end the week down by 3 points, which isn't too bad, but it was looking so promising on Friday and it was a good week tipping-wise. Three finalists and a semi finalist from four tips is pretty good going by any standards and considerably better than the Racing Post's punts.
Friday, 13 July 2007
Newport & Euro Dirt - Day 5
Not even the combination of truly foul English weather and the date of Friday the 13th could put a dampener on today's tennis triumphs.
Kicking proceedings off in positive fashion was Nicolas Almagro, who as predicted cruised into the semi finals of the Swedish Open in Bastad with a problem free straight sets victory over Luis Horna. The poor Peruvian was not happy throughout this match and even had to call the trainer at one point, as an insect flew straight into his eye when he was about to receive a game point serve from Almagro. Horna slumped to his knees as if nailed by a sniper and then staggered back to the green padded deckchairs that the tournament has provided for the players. It didn't help and my tip will now have the tough proposition of a resurgent Moya in the semi's tomorrow. I may lay a bit off Almagro tonight as a saver against the threat of both Moya and an in form David Ferrer.
Over in Gstaad, Igor Andreev put in a very impressive performance in taking out Richard Gasquet in straight sets and is now a very warm favourite to reach the final, as his semi final opponent will be Andreas Seppi, against whom the Russian has a 4-0 head-to-head record and is 1-5 with Stan James to emerge victorious.
The other quarter final which held my interest was Gael Monfils against my other tip and fellow countryman Paul Henri-Mathieu and this is a match I would have loved to have watched live. Sadly this wasn't possible and looking at the bare stats, this appears to have been a typical Monfils match. 20 aces and 9 double faults for Monfils seem to suggest the usual haphazard mixture of clean winners and wild errors from the frustrating Parisian and Mathieu walked the first set 6-1. Predictably, Monfils won the next 6-4 before sanity was restored and Mathieu won the decider 6-3 and now plays Radek Stepanek, who has had something of a resurgence this week after a poor season thus far following a recent injury.
Mathieu's victory has enabled me to lay a bit off him at a short price and hopefully I'm looking at a profit from the Alps tournament now after a wobbly day on Wednesday and all things being equal (i.e. Mahut obliging in Newport) I could be looking at a decent profit on the week.
Kicking proceedings off in positive fashion was Nicolas Almagro, who as predicted cruised into the semi finals of the Swedish Open in Bastad with a problem free straight sets victory over Luis Horna. The poor Peruvian was not happy throughout this match and even had to call the trainer at one point, as an insect flew straight into his eye when he was about to receive a game point serve from Almagro. Horna slumped to his knees as if nailed by a sniper and then staggered back to the green padded deckchairs that the tournament has provided for the players. It didn't help and my tip will now have the tough proposition of a resurgent Moya in the semi's tomorrow. I may lay a bit off Almagro tonight as a saver against the threat of both Moya and an in form David Ferrer.
Over in Gstaad, Igor Andreev put in a very impressive performance in taking out Richard Gasquet in straight sets and is now a very warm favourite to reach the final, as his semi final opponent will be Andreas Seppi, against whom the Russian has a 4-0 head-to-head record and is 1-5 with Stan James to emerge victorious.
The other quarter final which held my interest was Gael Monfils against my other tip and fellow countryman Paul Henri-Mathieu and this is a match I would have loved to have watched live. Sadly this wasn't possible and looking at the bare stats, this appears to have been a typical Monfils match. 20 aces and 9 double faults for Monfils seem to suggest the usual haphazard mixture of clean winners and wild errors from the frustrating Parisian and Mathieu walked the first set 6-1. Predictably, Monfils won the next 6-4 before sanity was restored and Mathieu won the decider 6-3 and now plays Radek Stepanek, who has had something of a resurgence this week after a poor season thus far following a recent injury.
Mathieu's victory has enabled me to lay a bit off him at a short price and hopefully I'm looking at a profit from the Alps tournament now after a wobbly day on Wednesday and all things being equal (i.e. Mahut obliging in Newport) I could be looking at a decent profit on the week.
Thursday, 12 July 2007
Newport & Euro Dirt - Day 4
After yesterday's shambles, the mood in the Calvert household was dark to say the least and I needed a decent start to the day today in order to harbour any hopes of a profit from the weeks activities.
The weather in Sweden was pretty foul, so the first matches of the day took place over on the clay of Gstaad and Paul-Henri Mathieu got proceedings off to a good start... eventually. The Frenchman sneaked through in a third set tie break against Feliciano Lopez and in the quarter finals it's the nightmare scenario of a match against Gael Monfils. I really am starting to lose patience with Monfils, as he is certainly in my view the most frustrating, unpredictable player on tour to bet on or against. I can just hope that he has one his off days tomorrow. I wouldn't want to bet on it though, but should Mathieu prevail I would fancy him to take out either Stepanek or Gicquel in the semi-finals.
Advancing at the same time as Mathieu was Igor Andreev, who cruised through his last 16 encounter with Potito Starace in straight sets to set up an attractive looking quarter final match up with bookies favourite Richard Gasquet. Andreev has a 2-1 career advantage over the Frenchman, but Gasquet appears to have finally found the consistent form that his talent has long promised and he will be a very tough obstacle for the Russian to overcome. Similarly to Mathieu, I would strongly fancy Andreev to reach the final if he can get past Gasquet, with Andreas Seppi and Martin Vassallo Arguello contesting the other quarter.
Over in Sweden, the rain prevented any play until well after lunch and Carlos Moya looked impressive in a straight sets dismissal of Thomas Johansson and earned favouritism from a number of layers. Somewhat surprisingly, Juan Monaco was defeated in straight sets by Gilles Simon and this has surely left the path clear for David Ferrer to advance to the final in the bottom half of the draw.
My interest, however still lies in the top half and disappointingly Fernando Verdasco was turned over in a third set breaker by home favourite Robin Soderling after leading 3-0 in the set. I was hoping for a Verdasco v Almagro semi final, but the top half now looks very competitive indeed and all my hopes in this tournament now lie solely with Nicolas Almagro, who takes on Horna tomorrow. The good thing about this tournament is that most matches are live on Betfair and this is essential to gauge form, as opposed to Gstaad and Newport where I'm relying on stats. We all know that stats don't lie, but they don't tell the whole truth.
Nicolas Mahut continued his march toward the Newport final over on the grass in Rhode Island with a patchy (from what I can tell) three set victory over veteran Antony Dupuis and now will take on one of either Prakash Amritraj (467 in the world) or Scoville Jenkins (367 in the world) in the quarter's with the prospect of a semi against either veteran Belgian beanpole Dick Norman or Fish's conqueror Qureshi. Mahut will want to take a long hard look at himself if he can't reach the final against this lot.
The weather in Sweden was pretty foul, so the first matches of the day took place over on the clay of Gstaad and Paul-Henri Mathieu got proceedings off to a good start... eventually. The Frenchman sneaked through in a third set tie break against Feliciano Lopez and in the quarter finals it's the nightmare scenario of a match against Gael Monfils. I really am starting to lose patience with Monfils, as he is certainly in my view the most frustrating, unpredictable player on tour to bet on or against. I can just hope that he has one his off days tomorrow. I wouldn't want to bet on it though, but should Mathieu prevail I would fancy him to take out either Stepanek or Gicquel in the semi-finals.
Advancing at the same time as Mathieu was Igor Andreev, who cruised through his last 16 encounter with Potito Starace in straight sets to set up an attractive looking quarter final match up with bookies favourite Richard Gasquet. Andreev has a 2-1 career advantage over the Frenchman, but Gasquet appears to have finally found the consistent form that his talent has long promised and he will be a very tough obstacle for the Russian to overcome. Similarly to Mathieu, I would strongly fancy Andreev to reach the final if he can get past Gasquet, with Andreas Seppi and Martin Vassallo Arguello contesting the other quarter.
Over in Sweden, the rain prevented any play until well after lunch and Carlos Moya looked impressive in a straight sets dismissal of Thomas Johansson and earned favouritism from a number of layers. Somewhat surprisingly, Juan Monaco was defeated in straight sets by Gilles Simon and this has surely left the path clear for David Ferrer to advance to the final in the bottom half of the draw.
My interest, however still lies in the top half and disappointingly Fernando Verdasco was turned over in a third set breaker by home favourite Robin Soderling after leading 3-0 in the set. I was hoping for a Verdasco v Almagro semi final, but the top half now looks very competitive indeed and all my hopes in this tournament now lie solely with Nicolas Almagro, who takes on Horna tomorrow. The good thing about this tournament is that most matches are live on Betfair and this is essential to gauge form, as opposed to Gstaad and Newport where I'm relying on stats. We all know that stats don't lie, but they don't tell the whole truth.
Nicolas Mahut continued his march toward the Newport final over on the grass in Rhode Island with a patchy (from what I can tell) three set victory over veteran Antony Dupuis and now will take on one of either Prakash Amritraj (467 in the world) or Scoville Jenkins (367 in the world) in the quarter's with the prospect of a semi against either veteran Belgian beanpole Dick Norman or Fish's conqueror Qureshi. Mahut will want to take a long hard look at himself if he can't reach the final against this lot.
Wednesday, 11 July 2007
Newport & Euro Dirt - Day 3 - Black Wednesday
As today's title would suggest, things went very badly awry on Wednesday, particularly in Gstaad and this is how it happened.
First up, Davydenko strolls on court to complete his match against Monfils after saving the match yesterday and promptly loses the first two games to slump to a first round defeat and simultaneously downs my five point multiple within a quarter of an hour. The stats on this one are especially galling, given that the Russian had an astonishing 19 break points in three sets and failed to convert all but three of them!
Multiple gone, I had a look over at the adjoining court and noticed Mikhail Youzhny on his way to an embarrassing defeat against local(ish) journeyman Stefan Koubek in straight sets and so my bottom half of the draw saver goes down in the first round. Not very impressive work Mr Youzhny.
Concurrently on the main showcourt, my minimum bet Ramirez Hidalgo was presented with ten break points by a typically profligate Gasquet, but failed to take all but three of them and a straight sets defeat was soon forthcoming.
This thoroughly depressing start was punctuated by Igor Andreev's rain delayed victory and consequently I'm still in with a decent shout of the victory from either the Russian or Paul Henri Mathieu, whose second round match against Lopez didn't make it on court today due to more bad weather in the Alps.
Over in Sweden it was better news as Nicolas Almagro thumped veteran home favourite Jonas Bjorkman in straight sets 4 and 2 and now takes on Luis Horna for a place in the semi finals against probably Carlos Moya, against whom Almagro would be looking for his first victory. Of course he must take care of Horna first who he has not played so far in his career. I'm confident of victory in that match though.
Better news from Newport's grass tournament with Nicolas Mahut arriving safely into the last 16 thanks to a straight sets win over Adrian Garcia of Chile, despite a nervy first set which ended in a tight breaker. The draw looks on paper to be very straightforward, with nobody of any note left in Mahut's top half and he really should reach the final against most likely veteran countryman Fabrice Santoro or fellow veteran Vinny Spadea.
Given the way my finances have disappeared into Betfair's satchels this week so far, I could do with Mahut doing the business and my hopes of a decent profit on the clay are still alive and kicking, so I shall take today's reverses on the chin and hopefully bounce back tomorrow with some better results.
First up, Davydenko strolls on court to complete his match against Monfils after saving the match yesterday and promptly loses the first two games to slump to a first round defeat and simultaneously downs my five point multiple within a quarter of an hour. The stats on this one are especially galling, given that the Russian had an astonishing 19 break points in three sets and failed to convert all but three of them!
Multiple gone, I had a look over at the adjoining court and noticed Mikhail Youzhny on his way to an embarrassing defeat against local(ish) journeyman Stefan Koubek in straight sets and so my bottom half of the draw saver goes down in the first round. Not very impressive work Mr Youzhny.
Concurrently on the main showcourt, my minimum bet Ramirez Hidalgo was presented with ten break points by a typically profligate Gasquet, but failed to take all but three of them and a straight sets defeat was soon forthcoming.
This thoroughly depressing start was punctuated by Igor Andreev's rain delayed victory and consequently I'm still in with a decent shout of the victory from either the Russian or Paul Henri Mathieu, whose second round match against Lopez didn't make it on court today due to more bad weather in the Alps.
Over in Sweden it was better news as Nicolas Almagro thumped veteran home favourite Jonas Bjorkman in straight sets 4 and 2 and now takes on Luis Horna for a place in the semi finals against probably Carlos Moya, against whom Almagro would be looking for his first victory. Of course he must take care of Horna first who he has not played so far in his career. I'm confident of victory in that match though.
Better news from Newport's grass tournament with Nicolas Mahut arriving safely into the last 16 thanks to a straight sets win over Adrian Garcia of Chile, despite a nervy first set which ended in a tight breaker. The draw looks on paper to be very straightforward, with nobody of any note left in Mahut's top half and he really should reach the final against most likely veteran countryman Fabrice Santoro or fellow veteran Vinny Spadea.
Given the way my finances have disappeared into Betfair's satchels this week so far, I could do with Mahut doing the business and my hopes of a decent profit on the clay are still alive and kicking, so I shall take today's reverses on the chin and hopefully bounce back tomorrow with some better results.
Tuesday, 10 July 2007
Newport & Euro Dirt - Day 2
A second day of rain hampered my activities in Switzerland on Tuesday and I was left waiting on the Ramirez Hidalgo bet, which didn't make it on court and in my frustration I felt the need to have a quiet multiple on the day's play.
I considered Davydenko, Soderling, Mahut and Youzhny to be pretty much nailed on and it looked good when Soderling came through in straight sets in Sweden and Davydenko took the first set against Monfils in Switzerland. I usually avoid betting on a match involving Gael Monfils, due to his extremely erratic, streaky play and sure enough the Frenchman roared back, took the second set and served for the match at 5-3 in the third only to be denied by a Russian comeback and the Swiss drizzle. The pair were forced off at 5-5 and my five point multiple lives to fight another day.
Also coming back tomorrow will be Igor Andreev, whose match with Albert Montanes was incomplete for the second day running. Andreev will be serving for the match at 5-4 in the third when they return and Mathieu managed to dodge the rain and prevail in straight sets, so I'm still 100% in Gstaad; so far so good.
No such problems with the weather over at the Swedish Open in Bastad and Fernando Verdasco breezed through his first round encounter to join Nicolas Almagro in the last sixteen. I've been watching Betfair's live stream in Bastad and it proved a great day for the home nation, as Bjorkman, Soderling and Johansson all won today. Stan James have Carlos Moya as the new favourite at 3-1 now, followed by my man Almagro at 7-2 and today's impressive winner David Ferrer next at 4's. Still with Stan James, they have a market on a lifetime Wimbledon winner and there's not much value in it as far as I can see. They go 1/7 Nadal to win it in his lifetime and bizarrely 6/4 against Donald Young to acheive the feat! Clearly Stan James rate the young American incredibly highly, as they have him ahead of Djokovic in the market at 5-2. SJ clearly know something that I don't.
Over in Newport on the grass I wasn't shocked to see number one seed Mardy Fish get turned over by Aisam-Ul-Haq-Qureshi in the first round. I saw the qualifier from Pakistan take care of Gasquet on the grass in Nottingham and give Safin a match at Wimbledon and if you add that to the alleged 'top seed curse' in Newport it's not too surprising really. Elsewhere, talking about predictable defeats, Brit Alex Bogdanovic succumbed to a poor loss against Thai number two Danai Udomchoke, collapsing 6-0 in the decider.
Still in Newport, bookies favourite Nicolas Kiefer was beaten in a strenuous first rounder against Chilean Paul Capdeville, eventually suffering a three set defeat (7-5 in the third set) and I feel vindicated about my refusal to back the German at such a short price. All in all it's been a good day at Newport (so far!) and as I write Nicolas Mahut is down to 2-1 with Betfair without hitting a shot, however he does have a Chilean first round opponent to contend with, so I shouldn't speak too soon.
I considered Davydenko, Soderling, Mahut and Youzhny to be pretty much nailed on and it looked good when Soderling came through in straight sets in Sweden and Davydenko took the first set against Monfils in Switzerland. I usually avoid betting on a match involving Gael Monfils, due to his extremely erratic, streaky play and sure enough the Frenchman roared back, took the second set and served for the match at 5-3 in the third only to be denied by a Russian comeback and the Swiss drizzle. The pair were forced off at 5-5 and my five point multiple lives to fight another day.
Also coming back tomorrow will be Igor Andreev, whose match with Albert Montanes was incomplete for the second day running. Andreev will be serving for the match at 5-4 in the third when they return and Mathieu managed to dodge the rain and prevail in straight sets, so I'm still 100% in Gstaad; so far so good.
No such problems with the weather over at the Swedish Open in Bastad and Fernando Verdasco breezed through his first round encounter to join Nicolas Almagro in the last sixteen. I've been watching Betfair's live stream in Bastad and it proved a great day for the home nation, as Bjorkman, Soderling and Johansson all won today. Stan James have Carlos Moya as the new favourite at 3-1 now, followed by my man Almagro at 7-2 and today's impressive winner David Ferrer next at 4's. Still with Stan James, they have a market on a lifetime Wimbledon winner and there's not much value in it as far as I can see. They go 1/7 Nadal to win it in his lifetime and bizarrely 6/4 against Donald Young to acheive the feat! Clearly Stan James rate the young American incredibly highly, as they have him ahead of Djokovic in the market at 5-2. SJ clearly know something that I don't.
Over in Newport on the grass I wasn't shocked to see number one seed Mardy Fish get turned over by Aisam-Ul-Haq-Qureshi in the first round. I saw the qualifier from Pakistan take care of Gasquet on the grass in Nottingham and give Safin a match at Wimbledon and if you add that to the alleged 'top seed curse' in Newport it's not too surprising really. Elsewhere, talking about predictable defeats, Brit Alex Bogdanovic succumbed to a poor loss against Thai number two Danai Udomchoke, collapsing 6-0 in the decider.
Still in Newport, bookies favourite Nicolas Kiefer was beaten in a strenuous first rounder against Chilean Paul Capdeville, eventually suffering a three set defeat (7-5 in the third set) and I feel vindicated about my refusal to back the German at such a short price. All in all it's been a good day at Newport (so far!) and as I write Nicolas Mahut is down to 2-1 with Betfair without hitting a shot, however he does have a Chilean first round opponent to contend with, so I shouldn't speak too soon.
Newport and Euro Dirt - Day 1
I eventually succumbed to boredom and had a minimum bet as mentioned yesterday on big Justin Gimelstob to take out Vinny Spadea in the first round on the grass of Newport, Rhode Island. Sadly, old Vinny stepped up to the plate for his first win in ages and sent JG back to the locker room empty handed in straight sets. I remember Vinny knocking former Newport winner and now BBC commentator Greg Rusedski out of Wimbledon in the first round a few years ago (9-7 in the fifth set I think) after not winning a tour match for months. The ex-Canadian was most displeased as I recall. Very much like myself, Greg talks a much better game than he ever played!
Anyway, back to the red stuff and not entirely unexpectedly, top seed Tommy Robredo found himself dispatched in the first round in Sweden, leaving Ferrer, Moya and my man Almagro at the head of the market. I had another investment on Nicolas when I noticed Tommy R in the brown stuff against Horna, being as they were due to meet in the quarters. Verdasco should be in action for me today in his first round match against some chap called Erling Tviet, a Norwegian ranked 925 in the world.
Over in the Alps, hopefully the rain will clear up and Andreev, Mathieu and Youzhny should play their first round matches today in an interesting bunch of games. It could pay to take a chance on Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo to beat Gasquet at 3 to 1. He's beaten Gasquet both times they played in the junior events and they haven't matched up since. It think it's worth an interest, given Gasquet's exertions at Wimbledon, so a minimum bet of two points is about the only value around today.
Anyway, back to the red stuff and not entirely unexpectedly, top seed Tommy Robredo found himself dispatched in the first round in Sweden, leaving Ferrer, Moya and my man Almagro at the head of the market. I had another investment on Nicolas when I noticed Tommy R in the brown stuff against Horna, being as they were due to meet in the quarters. Verdasco should be in action for me today in his first round match against some chap called Erling Tviet, a Norwegian ranked 925 in the world.
Over in the Alps, hopefully the rain will clear up and Andreev, Mathieu and Youzhny should play their first round matches today in an interesting bunch of games. It could pay to take a chance on Ruben Ramirez Hidalgo to beat Gasquet at 3 to 1. He's beaten Gasquet both times they played in the junior events and they haven't matched up since. It think it's worth an interest, given Gasquet's exertions at Wimbledon, so a minimum bet of two points is about the only value around today.
Monday, 9 July 2007
Wimbledon ends and its back to the red dirt
After a fair amount of applied mathmatics, it appears that I managed to make a profit on Wimbledon after all.
Venus Williams' victory in the ladies singles was backed at 20-1 at the start of the tournament and 50-1 and 55-1 when she was struggling badly on the seed's graveyard of Court 2 in the early rounds. This more than made up for a shocking day involving defeats for James Blake, Anna Chakvetadze, an apparently injured Martina Hingis and Dimitry Tursunov all on the same day, which put a severe downer on a couple of odds against wins for Mathieu over Ljubicic and Tipsarevic over Gonzalez.
As pleased as I was with Venus' success, I would have won more had I not been wary of the possible danger of Henin in the final and so laid quite of bit of Venus off in preparation for an all-profit final outcome. Of course, Bartoli ends up dispensing with Henin in an unbelievable semi final match and taking some of my hard-earned with her!
My stubborn refusal to back Federer for the mens title left me supporting Nadal in the final and thanks to a strong performance by the Spaniard I was able to come out with a small profit after backing the Fed Express when a couple of break points down in the fifth set. This was the one time in the entire fortnight that Federer was odds against!
The three tournaments this week have the look of a bit of value about them and I'm getting involved in Nicolas Mahut on the grass of Newport, Rhode Island at a very reasonable 4-1 with Betfair. The field is very poor and Mahut and the recovering Nicolas Kiefer look the class acts to be on, although Kiefer has limited appeal at 2.75-1 given his injury situation.
The Swedish Open looks interesting too, with my investment heading in the direction of Nicolas Almagro and Fernando Verdasco; two guys who you wouldn't want to rely on too heavily, given their temperaments and lack of consistency. Robredo looked vulnerable at the top of the draw and has just been knocked out as I write by Luis Horna, so I'm hoping for a smooth passage for Almagro now. Juan Monaco also looks good, but a poor value price put me off.
The Swiss Open, also on the red dirt looks very competitive, so I'm on Mikhail Youzhny in the easier looking bottom half and the in-form Paul-Henri Mathieu and class act Igor Andreev in the top half all at decent prices. This tournament has top tenner's Davydenko (is there a week ever when he doesn't play a tournament?!) and a possibly injured Gasquet competing, so it looks a tough one to call.
Nothing stands out enough for me to abandon my policy of avoiding backing heavy odds-on shots in the first round of a tournament, especially given the change of surface for the two clay court events, so no bets today so far. I am tempted by odds-against Gimelstob to take Spadea out in the first round on the grass of Newport though, so maybe later on.
Venus Williams' victory in the ladies singles was backed at 20-1 at the start of the tournament and 50-1 and 55-1 when she was struggling badly on the seed's graveyard of Court 2 in the early rounds. This more than made up for a shocking day involving defeats for James Blake, Anna Chakvetadze, an apparently injured Martina Hingis and Dimitry Tursunov all on the same day, which put a severe downer on a couple of odds against wins for Mathieu over Ljubicic and Tipsarevic over Gonzalez.
As pleased as I was with Venus' success, I would have won more had I not been wary of the possible danger of Henin in the final and so laid quite of bit of Venus off in preparation for an all-profit final outcome. Of course, Bartoli ends up dispensing with Henin in an unbelievable semi final match and taking some of my hard-earned with her!
My stubborn refusal to back Federer for the mens title left me supporting Nadal in the final and thanks to a strong performance by the Spaniard I was able to come out with a small profit after backing the Fed Express when a couple of break points down in the fifth set. This was the one time in the entire fortnight that Federer was odds against!
The three tournaments this week have the look of a bit of value about them and I'm getting involved in Nicolas Mahut on the grass of Newport, Rhode Island at a very reasonable 4-1 with Betfair. The field is very poor and Mahut and the recovering Nicolas Kiefer look the class acts to be on, although Kiefer has limited appeal at 2.75-1 given his injury situation.
The Swedish Open looks interesting too, with my investment heading in the direction of Nicolas Almagro and Fernando Verdasco; two guys who you wouldn't want to rely on too heavily, given their temperaments and lack of consistency. Robredo looked vulnerable at the top of the draw and has just been knocked out as I write by Luis Horna, so I'm hoping for a smooth passage for Almagro now. Juan Monaco also looks good, but a poor value price put me off.
The Swiss Open, also on the red dirt looks very competitive, so I'm on Mikhail Youzhny in the easier looking bottom half and the in-form Paul-Henri Mathieu and class act Igor Andreev in the top half all at decent prices. This tournament has top tenner's Davydenko (is there a week ever when he doesn't play a tournament?!) and a possibly injured Gasquet competing, so it looks a tough one to call.
Nothing stands out enough for me to abandon my policy of avoiding backing heavy odds-on shots in the first round of a tournament, especially given the change of surface for the two clay court events, so no bets today so far. I am tempted by odds-against Gimelstob to take Spadea out in the first round on the grass of Newport though, so maybe later on.
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