Monday, 29 October 2007

Basel, Lyon & St Petersburg wrap and Paris advice

A very pleasing week comes to an end, with profits galore at all three ATP tournaments and a bank balance that is returning to it's heady pre-US Open heights, just as the season winds down.

In Basel, Roger Federer retained his Swiss Open title at the tournament where he was a ball boy in his youth. A bloodless straight sets victory over Jarkko Nieminen in the final represented Fed's eighth consecutive victory over the Finn (16 sets in a row) and a return on my 10 point wager at 1.5 with Boylesports.

Over in St Petersburg it was an eventful week to say the least. Andy Murray lifted the sizable trophy after coming from matchpoint down against Youzhny in the semi's to record a finals day win over Fernando Verdasco in straight sets.

The final was perfect for me, having advised and backed both players pre-tournament and a very nice profit of 15 points was the outcome.

The St Petersburg event was a controversial one however, with some extremely questionable matches taking place - notably Tursunov v Pashanski, where Tursunov was being backed to the hilt at 1.2 despite being a set and a break down! The result? Why, a Tursunov comeback victory of course...'They' knew.

Barely a week goes by these days without Nikolay Davydenko making headlines, this time it was for receiving a code violation and a fine for 'not giving best effort' in his match against Marin Cilic. Having written about this elsewhere http://tennisgurunews.blogspot.com/2007/10/davydenko-in-spotlight-again.html, I'll move on swiftly to the Lyon tournament.

My man in Lyon, Marc Gicquel, made it to the final at the nice price of 30 and with each seeded player falling early, the final against Seb Grosjean allowed an easy lay opportunity, which I took for an all-profit outcome. My initial investment of 1.5 points showed a profit of 10 points and the week in total showed a green of 30 points.

On to this week and the final Masters Series event of the year in Paris sees a rather lopsided draw and an opportunity for the much maligned (and rightly so) Davydenko to answer his many critics on the tennis court.

The Russian defending champ, has by far the easiest draw and I snapped up the 51 on offer from Sporting Odds on Saturday. The price is now down as low as 13 with some high street layers and I wouldn't touch that, but 50 is about right for a 1.5 point wager on a player whose mental state can only be estimated, along with his ethics.

I'm going with the theory that Davydenko will look to produce a good show as defending champ and the draw couldn't be kinder, given the fact that Federer has Karlovic, Nalbandian, Berdych, Murray, Djokovic, Gasquet and Blake in his section and will be tired after his two long weeks. Davy by comparison has only the likes of Ljubicic, Canas and Robredo in his quarter and only a clearly jaded Nadal of any note in his half, given the poor recent form of Haas and Gonzalez, so if (and it's a big if) the Russian can be bothered this week, he has an outstanding chance.

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