It looks like a return to the green figures this week in the Beijing Olympics with Fernando Gonzalez being the man to guarantee me at least a decent profit.
Those that read my Betfair pre-tournament advice and backed Gonzalez at [126] will be getting extremely interested right about now as the Chilean goes on court against James Blake in the semi finals.
I got on each-way at that huge price, so a simple back of Blake at [evens] today has ensured me a very handsome profit on the week. I'm hoping that Gonzalez does the business though obviously and creates a bumper payout.
I've been on Betfair Radio this week discussing the event and those listening would have heard me bigging up the chances of both Gonzalez and Nalbandian, although in typical style, the Argentine went out to Gael Monfils about an hour later.
Oh well, you can't win them all and I did advise punters not to touch Venus Williams at [5.5] for the Ladies Singles Gold Medal - she went out to home favourite Li Na yesterday.
As for Mr Federer, well he is incredibly vulnerable at the moment and although it was a bit of a surprise to see the Swiss beaten in straight sets by Blake for the first time in their career meetings, it barely registers as a shock these days.
Nadal and Djokovic meet later today after the Gonzalez match and Djokovic has a live chance of an upset in this one at [2.7].
The Serb has a 4-2 lead in their hard court series and won their last encounter in Cincinnati a couple of weeks ago, but Nadal was clearly below par physically that day and there should not be too much read into that.
It's a tight match though and who can say what sort of condition Nadal is in after his tough schedule, so it's worth backing Novak at the current price.
Over in Washington, Andy Roddick continues to struggle and needed to save match points against clay courter Eduardo Shwank and next plays Viktor Troiki for a place in the semis.
In the other half, it looks to be between Tommy Haas and Juan Martin Del Potro, who has now won 16 straight matches.
Friday, 15 August 2008
Monday, 11 August 2008
LA Wrap and Olympic/Washington advice
As I think I said at the start of the Countrywide Classic, it's not an event to stake too much cash on and I'm very glad that I didn't.
My long shots were beaten in the first round and with the Olympics about to begin, my interest in the tournament dwindled to very little very quickly.
Incredibly, Juan Martin Del Potro won his third straight title by beating Roddick in straight sets in the final and his turnaround in form has been little short of amazing over the last couple of months. The Argentine has now won his last 14 consecutive matches.
As far as the Olympics are concerned, my outright bets and long shots can be found on the Betfair site here: - http://betting.betfair.com/olympics-beijing-2008/tennis/
The gist of it is small stakes on Fernando Gonzalez [126], Stanislas Wawrinka [160] and David Nalbandian [55]and my possible first round upsets can also be found there.
Amidst all the excitement of Beijing the tournament in Washington has been rather forgotten and to be frank there's not much to get excited about in the event.
The protagonists are more or less the same as LA and quality looks sparse, but the layers make Roddick favourite over Del Potro, which is surely an error on current form.
It's a lot to ask for Del Potro to win again, but he's so hot right now that he's hard to ignore in a poor event at [4.0].
As for long shots, the only one that raises a slight amount of interest is the in-form Denis Gremelmayr at [41.0] and he could be worth a very small investment, but other than that Washington looks one to skip.
My long shots were beaten in the first round and with the Olympics about to begin, my interest in the tournament dwindled to very little very quickly.
Incredibly, Juan Martin Del Potro won his third straight title by beating Roddick in straight sets in the final and his turnaround in form has been little short of amazing over the last couple of months. The Argentine has now won his last 14 consecutive matches.
As far as the Olympics are concerned, my outright bets and long shots can be found on the Betfair site here: - http://betting.betfair.com/olympics-beijing-2008/tennis/
The gist of it is small stakes on Fernando Gonzalez [126], Stanislas Wawrinka [160] and David Nalbandian [55]and my possible first round upsets can also be found there.
Amidst all the excitement of Beijing the tournament in Washington has been rather forgotten and to be frank there's not much to get excited about in the event.
The protagonists are more or less the same as LA and quality looks sparse, but the layers make Roddick favourite over Del Potro, which is surely an error on current form.
It's a lot to ask for Del Potro to win again, but he's so hot right now that he's hard to ignore in a poor event at [4.0].
As for long shots, the only one that raises a slight amount of interest is the in-form Denis Gremelmayr at [41.0] and he could be worth a very small investment, but other than that Washington looks one to skip.
Wednesday, 6 August 2008
Countrywide Classic - No repeat of '07
Well, my theory that genuine class should shine through against lesser opposition failed to bear any fruit last night, as Seb Grosjean went out in three sets to Vinny Spadea in L.A.
I said yesterday that I expected the match to go the distance, but I didn't expect to be severely out of pocket at the end of it!
The little man from Marseille lost the decider 6-3 and with it went my outright punt and individual wager of the day.
It looks like Grosjean's shoulder injury hasn't cleared up yet after all!
The only upside was Wayne Odesnik's victory over Bobby Reynolds at [3.0] which sweetened the pill somewhat and corrected some of my Grosjean losses.
Elsewhere, multiple backers were let down by Donald Young's shock victory over Tommy Haas at around [7.0] although I'm happy to say that I wasn't one of them on this occasion.
As predicted, Carlos Moya had his work cut out against Xavier Malisse, with the Spaniard eventually prevailing in a final set breaker.
Tonight's line-up sees four uneasy favourites in Mardy Fish, Feliciano Lopez, Marat Safin and Fernando Verdasco all trying to progress to the quarter finals and at least three of them are expected to make it.
Fish has been in putrid form lately and won't be carrying any of my cash at [1.55] against Spadea, particularly given their record of tight encounters against each other.
The other three should prevail, but I'm always wary of backing players in their first match of a tournament (Grosjean aside of course!), so perhaps a small treble on Lopez, Safin and Verdasco could be the order of the day.
Hopefully Lopez will at least make it to the second round to keep my outright interest at [28] going after Grosjean's disappointing effort.
I said yesterday that I expected the match to go the distance, but I didn't expect to be severely out of pocket at the end of it!
The little man from Marseille lost the decider 6-3 and with it went my outright punt and individual wager of the day.
It looks like Grosjean's shoulder injury hasn't cleared up yet after all!
The only upside was Wayne Odesnik's victory over Bobby Reynolds at [3.0] which sweetened the pill somewhat and corrected some of my Grosjean losses.
Elsewhere, multiple backers were let down by Donald Young's shock victory over Tommy Haas at around [7.0] although I'm happy to say that I wasn't one of them on this occasion.
As predicted, Carlos Moya had his work cut out against Xavier Malisse, with the Spaniard eventually prevailing in a final set breaker.
Tonight's line-up sees four uneasy favourites in Mardy Fish, Feliciano Lopez, Marat Safin and Fernando Verdasco all trying to progress to the quarter finals and at least three of them are expected to make it.
Fish has been in putrid form lately and won't be carrying any of my cash at [1.55] against Spadea, particularly given their record of tight encounters against each other.
The other three should prevail, but I'm always wary of backing players in their first match of a tournament (Grosjean aside of course!), so perhaps a small treble on Lopez, Safin and Verdasco could be the order of the day.
Hopefully Lopez will at least make it to the second round to keep my outright interest at [28] going after Grosjean's disappointing effort.
Tuesday, 5 August 2008
Countrywide Classic - Day Two
No individual match wagers yesterday then, as there were some distinctly average-looking clashes in LA last night, but tonight looks a bit more interesting with my outside bet taking centre stage.
Seb Grosjean is surely overpriced to take out Vinny Spadea and [2.34] looks to be worthy of a medium sized investment.
The injury problems that Grosjean has suffered this season means that there is an element of guesswork involved in assessing his fitness, but based on ability there's no contest between the Frenchman and Spadea.
The pair know each other well, both living in Boca Raton, Florida and have played five times - Grosjean having the edge at 3-2 - with Spadea winning their only recent encounter.
The American however has a dismal record in LA, having lost in the first round three times in the last four years and six times from his ten starts here and at 34 years old, he's not likely to improve on that significantly.
The fact that this is Grosjean's first competitive match since pulling out of Wimbledon means that much is taken on trust and it might take him three sets, but the former Masters Cup finalist is expected to prevail.
Other matches of interest today include John Isner v Marat Safin and Wayne Odesnik v Bobby Reynolds.
The outsider could well prevail in each of these two clashes and with Safin's propensity to become annoyed against big servers, it could pay to side with the 6 feet 9 inch Isner at [2.58].
Odesnik v Reynolds should be much closer than the prices suggest and a back to lay policy on Odesnik [3.2] could create a tidy profit.
Carlos Moya could also struggle against Xavier Malisse, but given the injury problems that the Belgian has had of late, it might be wise to simply watch that match.
At his best Malisse would be more than a match for Moya on this surface, however he did retire in a challenger in his last outing a couple of weeks ago and it's asking a lot for him to take out Moya first up here.
Seb Grosjean is surely overpriced to take out Vinny Spadea and [2.34] looks to be worthy of a medium sized investment.
The injury problems that Grosjean has suffered this season means that there is an element of guesswork involved in assessing his fitness, but based on ability there's no contest between the Frenchman and Spadea.
The pair know each other well, both living in Boca Raton, Florida and have played five times - Grosjean having the edge at 3-2 - with Spadea winning their only recent encounter.
The American however has a dismal record in LA, having lost in the first round three times in the last four years and six times from his ten starts here and at 34 years old, he's not likely to improve on that significantly.
The fact that this is Grosjean's first competitive match since pulling out of Wimbledon means that much is taken on trust and it might take him three sets, but the former Masters Cup finalist is expected to prevail.
Other matches of interest today include John Isner v Marat Safin and Wayne Odesnik v Bobby Reynolds.
The outsider could well prevail in each of these two clashes and with Safin's propensity to become annoyed against big servers, it could pay to side with the 6 feet 9 inch Isner at [2.58].
Odesnik v Reynolds should be much closer than the prices suggest and a back to lay policy on Odesnik [3.2] could create a tidy profit.
Carlos Moya could also struggle against Xavier Malisse, but given the injury problems that the Belgian has had of late, it might be wise to simply watch that match.
At his best Malisse would be more than a match for Moya on this surface, however he did retire in a challenger in his last outing a couple of weeks ago and it's asking a lot for him to take out Moya first up here.
Monday, 4 August 2008
Murray's Masters and on to L.A.
So he's done it at last!
Andy Murray made the step up to become a Masters Series winner by beating Novak Djokovic in Cincinnati last night and at the same time earned me a profit on the event.
I've been saying all tournament that Nadal's punishing schedule would let him down and that an outsider would take this event and so it proved, although whether you consider Murray to be a genuine outsider is up for debate I guess.
Anyway, my each way bet on the Scot at [7.5], as advised when Federer was defeated came in with no real problems and saved my bacon in what is often a trappy tournament to predict due to the heat, humidity and close proximity to other events.
All of which means that the tour rolls on to Los Angeles for the Countrywide Classic - an event which holds great memories for me after I backed Radek Stepanek at 50-1 outright last year and the Czech came in by beating James Blake in the final. Good times.
This year's field has a rather depleted look about it due to the Olympics starting in four days time and Andy Roddick is the only top ten player to have swerved Beijing and opted to stay at home.
A-Rod is a rather meagre looking [2.78] to bring home the title in an event he has only entered three times in his career and never made it further than the semi finals (in 2002, lost to Jan-Michael Gambill).
This doesn't look to be a tournament to get too heavily involved in, so I'm having a couple of small bets and hoping for a similar result to last year if at all possible.
Feliciano Lopez has all the talent in the world, but rarely displays it except on the big occasion or when he has nothing to lose, but with all eyes on Beijing, I reckon this is the sort of event he might play well in.
The Spanish lefty is in the tougher top half of the draw with Roddick, Safin and Haas, but is decent value at [26] to cause an upset and add to his solitary career title in Vienna in 2004.
A bigger priced punt is the [65] I had matched about Sebastian Grosjean and if he's back to full fitness after an injury ravaged season, then that could represent value.
The Florida resident is in the easier-looking bottom half of the draw and still possesses the ability to win a title like this if the body will allow.
As far as the first round matches are concerned, nothing really appeals today, so I'll keep my money in my pocket and stick with the outright wagers for now.
Andy Murray made the step up to become a Masters Series winner by beating Novak Djokovic in Cincinnati last night and at the same time earned me a profit on the event.
I've been saying all tournament that Nadal's punishing schedule would let him down and that an outsider would take this event and so it proved, although whether you consider Murray to be a genuine outsider is up for debate I guess.
Anyway, my each way bet on the Scot at [7.5], as advised when Federer was defeated came in with no real problems and saved my bacon in what is often a trappy tournament to predict due to the heat, humidity and close proximity to other events.
All of which means that the tour rolls on to Los Angeles for the Countrywide Classic - an event which holds great memories for me after I backed Radek Stepanek at 50-1 outright last year and the Czech came in by beating James Blake in the final. Good times.
This year's field has a rather depleted look about it due to the Olympics starting in four days time and Andy Roddick is the only top ten player to have swerved Beijing and opted to stay at home.
A-Rod is a rather meagre looking [2.78] to bring home the title in an event he has only entered three times in his career and never made it further than the semi finals (in 2002, lost to Jan-Michael Gambill).
This doesn't look to be a tournament to get too heavily involved in, so I'm having a couple of small bets and hoping for a similar result to last year if at all possible.
Feliciano Lopez has all the talent in the world, but rarely displays it except on the big occasion or when he has nothing to lose, but with all eyes on Beijing, I reckon this is the sort of event he might play well in.
The Spanish lefty is in the tougher top half of the draw with Roddick, Safin and Haas, but is decent value at [26] to cause an upset and add to his solitary career title in Vienna in 2004.
A bigger priced punt is the [65] I had matched about Sebastian Grosjean and if he's back to full fitness after an injury ravaged season, then that could represent value.
The Florida resident is in the easier-looking bottom half of the draw and still possesses the ability to win a title like this if the body will allow.
As far as the first round matches are concerned, nothing really appeals today, so I'll keep my money in my pocket and stick with the outright wagers for now.
Friday, 1 August 2008
Cincinnati Masters - Back in the game..
I knew my perseverance would pay off eventually and I was proved correct when Ernests Gulbis took out James Blake at [2.54] in the third round of the Cincy Masters yesterday.
That win brought me back into the black and it could even have been so much better, had Robin Soderling taken either of his two match points against Philipp Kohlschreiber instead of wasting them and going down in a final set breaker.
Andy Murray eased past Dmitry Tursunov as well, so all in all it was a very good day, although a certain Mr R Federer wouldn't think so after he was blasted out of the event by Croatian beanpole Ivo Karlovic.
Fed won more points in the match and wasn't broken by Karlovic, however the big man took it in a final set breaker, which all means that Nadal is a bigger favourite than ever he was and is now trading at around the [1.71] mark.
It also means of course that Rafa will take over the world number one mantle that Fed has held since about 1975, as the Spaniard closes in on another title.
I predicted at the start of the event that this could be one for the outsider - I just failed to pick the right ones and who in their right mind would have had Nicolas Lapentti, Carlos Moya and Kohlschreiber down as a potential Cincy champ??
Not me for one, but Andy Murray must fancy this now, with only Moya and the winner from Kohlschreiber and Karlovic in the way of him and a Masters final.
With Nadal and Djokovic still in the event, I wouldn't be rushing to put the mortgage on the Scot collecting the trophy this week, but he must be a solid each-way bet to get to the championship match.
As far as the quarter finals go, it might pay to stay with Gulbis in his match against Djokovic.
The Latvian knows his old hitting partner's game well and he gave Novak a very decent match at Roland Garros.
Gulbis has been steadily on the upgrade of late, while Djokovic looks less than 100 percent at the moment and there are undoubtedly many worse [4.5] shots around today than Gulbis.
I'll be having a small wager and leaving the other three quarters well alone.
That win brought me back into the black and it could even have been so much better, had Robin Soderling taken either of his two match points against Philipp Kohlschreiber instead of wasting them and going down in a final set breaker.
Andy Murray eased past Dmitry Tursunov as well, so all in all it was a very good day, although a certain Mr R Federer wouldn't think so after he was blasted out of the event by Croatian beanpole Ivo Karlovic.
Fed won more points in the match and wasn't broken by Karlovic, however the big man took it in a final set breaker, which all means that Nadal is a bigger favourite than ever he was and is now trading at around the [1.71] mark.
It also means of course that Rafa will take over the world number one mantle that Fed has held since about 1975, as the Spaniard closes in on another title.
I predicted at the start of the event that this could be one for the outsider - I just failed to pick the right ones and who in their right mind would have had Nicolas Lapentti, Carlos Moya and Kohlschreiber down as a potential Cincy champ??
Not me for one, but Andy Murray must fancy this now, with only Moya and the winner from Kohlschreiber and Karlovic in the way of him and a Masters final.
With Nadal and Djokovic still in the event, I wouldn't be rushing to put the mortgage on the Scot collecting the trophy this week, but he must be a solid each-way bet to get to the championship match.
As far as the quarter finals go, it might pay to stay with Gulbis in his match against Djokovic.
The Latvian knows his old hitting partner's game well and he gave Novak a very decent match at Roland Garros.
Gulbis has been steadily on the upgrade of late, while Djokovic looks less than 100 percent at the moment and there are undoubtedly many worse [4.5] shots around today than Gulbis.
I'll be having a small wager and leaving the other three quarters well alone.
Thursday, 31 July 2008
Down and out in Cincy
Well as far as bad days go, yesterday ranks fairly high on my list. Injuries, illnesses and unfathomable defeats all contributed to a poor day's viewing and a distinctly profit-free tournament thus far in the heat and humidity of Ohio.
Gilles Simon got the ball rolling by hitting the wall after his efforts of the past few weeks and the Frenchman could barely move by the end of his straight sets defeat to James Blake. All of which meant that my wager of the day turned to dust very quickly.
The players are picking up injuries left, right and centre at the moment and goodness knows how they're going to fare in Beijing next week if they think the conditions here are tough!
Both of my remaining outright bets went down in disappointing fashion, starting with David Ferrer, who managed to become Nicolas Lapentti's first top ten ranked victim on hard courts in over five years.
I watched this one live and it was poor from the world number four and Lapentti goes through to the third round in Cincy for the first time in nine years.
Ferrer actually won more points than his opponent, but could only convert three of his eleven break point opportunities and faltered at the vital times.
Speaking of faltering, it's never a shock to hear that word linked to a performance from Richard Gasquet and he surrendered meekly by being bageled in the second set after losing the first on a breaker to Dmitry Tursunov.
Least surprising news of the day was that of the Tommy Haas v Gael Monfils clash ending in a retirement.
In hindsight, my bet of the day should have been that match to end in any other method than a victory for either player. This time it was the Frenchman that quit, citing a stomach problem.
Ferrer's defeat also downed my treble and left me staring into the abyss of a red bank balance, which is never pretty.
I'm sticking to the belief that this was merely an abborition and I have a feeling that Blake might find young Ernests Gulbis a bit too hot to handle this evening, which will put me back on track for the week at around [2.5].
I backed the young Latvian when he took Blake out at Wimbledon and there's no reason why he can't repeat the dose here and send Blake home early.
Gulbis came from match point down to beat Arnaud Clement yesterday and although that was a long match, I think that the price is too good to refuse. Yes, Blake played well yesterday and he has a decent record here, which is why I backed him last year, but I can see Gulbis causing him many more problems than a clearly below par Simon.
Elsewhere, Robin Soderling looks good to take out Philipp Kohlschreiber at [1.57] and Andy Murray [1.41] should prove too good for Tursunov, providing he remains injury free.
That looks a solid double and I might even throw Fernando Verdasco into the mix to beat Lapentti at [1.43], although Novak Djokovic is poor value to defeat Andreas Seppi at [1.18] after his display against another Italian, Simone Bolleli, yesterday.
The best match to watch should prove to be the night match between Haas and Nadal and with the Spaniard complaining bitterly about the schedule, it could prove an interesting evening's viewing.
Gilles Simon got the ball rolling by hitting the wall after his efforts of the past few weeks and the Frenchman could barely move by the end of his straight sets defeat to James Blake. All of which meant that my wager of the day turned to dust very quickly.
The players are picking up injuries left, right and centre at the moment and goodness knows how they're going to fare in Beijing next week if they think the conditions here are tough!
Both of my remaining outright bets went down in disappointing fashion, starting with David Ferrer, who managed to become Nicolas Lapentti's first top ten ranked victim on hard courts in over five years.
I watched this one live and it was poor from the world number four and Lapentti goes through to the third round in Cincy for the first time in nine years.
Ferrer actually won more points than his opponent, but could only convert three of his eleven break point opportunities and faltered at the vital times.
Speaking of faltering, it's never a shock to hear that word linked to a performance from Richard Gasquet and he surrendered meekly by being bageled in the second set after losing the first on a breaker to Dmitry Tursunov.
Least surprising news of the day was that of the Tommy Haas v Gael Monfils clash ending in a retirement.
In hindsight, my bet of the day should have been that match to end in any other method than a victory for either player. This time it was the Frenchman that quit, citing a stomach problem.
Ferrer's defeat also downed my treble and left me staring into the abyss of a red bank balance, which is never pretty.
I'm sticking to the belief that this was merely an abborition and I have a feeling that Blake might find young Ernests Gulbis a bit too hot to handle this evening, which will put me back on track for the week at around [2.5].
I backed the young Latvian when he took Blake out at Wimbledon and there's no reason why he can't repeat the dose here and send Blake home early.
Gulbis came from match point down to beat Arnaud Clement yesterday and although that was a long match, I think that the price is too good to refuse. Yes, Blake played well yesterday and he has a decent record here, which is why I backed him last year, but I can see Gulbis causing him many more problems than a clearly below par Simon.
Elsewhere, Robin Soderling looks good to take out Philipp Kohlschreiber at [1.57] and Andy Murray [1.41] should prove too good for Tursunov, providing he remains injury free.
That looks a solid double and I might even throw Fernando Verdasco into the mix to beat Lapentti at [1.43], although Novak Djokovic is poor value to defeat Andreas Seppi at [1.18] after his display against another Italian, Simone Bolleli, yesterday.
The best match to watch should prove to be the night match between Haas and Nadal and with the Spaniard complaining bitterly about the schedule, it could prove an interesting evening's viewing.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
