Thursday, 31 July 2008

Down and out in Cincy

Well as far as bad days go, yesterday ranks fairly high on my list. Injuries, illnesses and unfathomable defeats all contributed to a poor day's viewing and a distinctly profit-free tournament thus far in the heat and humidity of Ohio.

Gilles Simon got the ball rolling by hitting the wall after his efforts of the past few weeks and the Frenchman could barely move by the end of his straight sets defeat to James Blake. All of which meant that my wager of the day turned to dust very quickly.

The players are picking up injuries left, right and centre at the moment and goodness knows how they're going to fare in Beijing next week if they think the conditions here are tough!

Both of my remaining outright bets went down in disappointing fashion, starting with David Ferrer, who managed to become Nicolas Lapentti's first top ten ranked victim on hard courts in over five years.

I watched this one live and it was poor from the world number four and Lapentti goes through to the third round in Cincy for the first time in nine years.

Ferrer actually won more points than his opponent, but could only convert three of his eleven break point opportunities and faltered at the vital times.

Speaking of faltering, it's never a shock to hear that word linked to a performance from Richard Gasquet and he surrendered meekly by being bageled in the second set after losing the first on a breaker to Dmitry Tursunov.

Least surprising news of the day was that of the Tommy Haas v Gael Monfils clash ending in a retirement.

In hindsight, my bet of the day should have been that match to end in any other method than a victory for either player. This time it was the Frenchman that quit, citing a stomach problem.

Ferrer's defeat also downed my treble and left me staring into the abyss of a red bank balance, which is never pretty.

I'm sticking to the belief that this was merely an abborition and I have a feeling that Blake might find young Ernests Gulbis a bit too hot to handle this evening, which will put me back on track for the week at around [2.5].

I backed the young Latvian when he took Blake out at Wimbledon and there's no reason why he can't repeat the dose here and send Blake home early.

Gulbis came from match point down to beat Arnaud Clement yesterday and although that was a long match, I think that the price is too good to refuse. Yes, Blake played well yesterday and he has a decent record here, which is why I backed him last year, but I can see Gulbis causing him many more problems than a clearly below par Simon.

Elsewhere, Robin Soderling looks good to take out Philipp Kohlschreiber at [1.57] and Andy Murray [1.41] should prove too good for Tursunov, providing he remains injury free.

That looks a solid double and I might even throw Fernando Verdasco into the mix to beat Lapentti at [1.43], although Novak Djokovic is poor value to defeat Andreas Seppi at [1.18] after his display against another Italian, Simone Bolleli, yesterday.

The best match to watch should prove to be the night match between Haas and Nadal and with the Spaniard complaining bitterly about the schedule, it could prove an interesting evening's viewing.

Wednesday, 30 July 2008

Cincinnati 2nd Round

Well I'm one down and two to go after the first round was completed in Cincy last night, as Janko Tipsarevic's injury problems continued.

The Serb, who hobbled out of Wimbledon at the hands of Rainer Schuettler last month, struggled with an ankle problem in succumbing to Carlos Moya in straight sets and it looks like he could have long term issues with his fitness to deal with.

It was only a minimum bet though and my other two march on - Gasquet prevailed against Michael Llodra after the French lefty quit with an arm injury in the third set of their first round clash.

The number 11 seed can consider himself fortunate, as he was having one of those Gasquet days and he will need to improve to take out Dmirty Tursunov later tonight.

David Ferrer is also through to face an unexpected second round opponent in Nicolas Lapentti, after the veteran from Ecuador took out in-form Marin Cilic in straight sets.

There appears - on paper at least - little to stand in the way of Ferrer and a semi-final clash with presumably Rafa Nadal now and I'm quite surprised that the Valencian is still available at around the 130 mark.

My only advice from yesterday was Gilles Simon to take out Nicolas Kiefer, but the Frenchman ended up with a somewhat easier task after the German pulled out, so no profit to report from that wager.

There are some tasty looking encounters in the second round today though and I like the look of Simon again, to take out an out of form James Blake at the nice price of 2.70.

The contrast in form between these pair is stark and although Blake likes it here in Cincy, his form in the straight sets thrashing by Kiefer in Toronto was abysmal and Simon's match yesterday will have handed him some valuable court time in these testing humid conditions.

Elsewhere, a treble of Ferrer [1.19], Berdych [1.35] and Gulbis [1.33] should prove profitable.

Tuesday, 29 July 2008

Cincinnati Masters - Outrights and overview

After the disappointment of Novak Djokovic's exit at the hands of Andy Murray in Toronto, I think it's time to have a small investment in a couple of relative outsiders here in Cincy.

I backed James Blake at around 80 last year and he obliged by making it all the way to the championship match, where the New Yorker was outclassed by Roger Federer in straight sets, but it was a handy profit and I'm going a similar way this year.

With Fed looking all at sea and somewhat shell shocked by the loss of his Wimbledon invincibility and Rafa Nadal surely conserving his considerable energy reserves for the Olympics after winning in Canada, it might be an idea to have a look at a couple of alternatives.

The three that leap out at their current prices are David Ferrer, Richard Gasquet and Janko Tipsarevic.

After a wretched season where once again his desire and fight have been called into question, Gasquet has started to play well of late and was the only player to take a set off Nadal in Toronto.

The Frenchman is in the section of the draw that houses Nikolay Davydenko, Andy Murray and Tipsarevic and on a course for a semi final match with Federer, so 90 is worth chancing on a mercurial talent that surely must reach a Masters final soon.

Ferrer is overpriced at 130 and has little in his section to worry him other than perhaps Marin Cilic and Fernando Verdasco and he would meet Nadal in the semi's should the world number one in waiting get past Germans, Tommy Haas and Benjamin Becker as seems likely.

Nadal's body is more likely to let him down than the Teutonic abilities of his early opponents and Ferrer could be the one to take advantage.

A real longshot could be Janko Tipsarevic at around 300 and the Serb possesses all the ability in the world without perhaps the physical endurance for a sustained effort in the majors.

He was perhaps a bit rusty in Canada when he lost to Nicolas Mahut and he's worth a chance at a big price to upset Moya and Davydenko and if he manages that, then he'll be dangerous.

As far as individual bets are concerned on Tuesday, I like the look of Gilles Simon to avenge last week's loss to Nicolas Kiefer at 2.08 and that's worth an investment.

Thursday, 1 November 2007

Time for the year end profit & loss

As another season draws to a close, it's time to look at how I've fared recently on outright tournament betting, as I won't be getting involved in the annual lottery of the Shanghai jamboree.

Wimbledon Ladies - backed Venus Williams at 20, 50 & 55 - result - win

Bastad - backed Almagro at 9 & Verdasco - result - Almagro runner up

Newport - backed Nicolas Mahut at 5.0 - result - runner up

Gstaad - backed Mathieu at 15, Andreev & Youzhny - result - Mathieu win

Stuttgart - backed Nadal at 4, Acasuso at 64 & Monaco at 54 - result - Nadal win

Countrywide Classic - backed Tursunov at 9 & Stepanek at 50 - result - Stepanek win

Kitzbuhel - backed Starace at 25, Eschauer at 50 & Patience at 100 - result Starace runner up

Indianapolis - backed Ginepri at 40 - result - loss

Umag - backed Djokovic at 2 - result - loss

Washington - backed Haas at 6.5 - result - loss

Sopot - backed Andreev & Acasuso - result - Acasuso runner up

Montreal - backed Gasquet at 50 & Baghdatis/Canas/Haas/Murray at 100 - result loss
Montreal - backed Djokovic at 14 - result - win

Cincinnati - backed Mathieu at 150 & Blake at 70 - result - Blake runner up

New Haven - backed Hrbaty at 70 & Karlovic at 22 - result - loss

US Open Mens - backed Djokovic at 36 - result - runner up

US Open Ladies - backed Kuznetsova at 50 - result - runner up

Madrid - backed Federer at 1.63 (layed at 1.17) - result - runner up

Zurich Ladies - backed Henin at 2 - result - win

Basel - backed Federer at 1.5 - result - win

St Petersburg - backed Murray at 5, Ancic at 7 & Verdasco at 14 - result Murray win, Verdasco runner up

Lyon - backed Gicquel at 30 - result - runner up

Paris - backed Davydenko at 50 - result - loss


So, the result of these stats tells me that if I had put £10 each-way on each selection at the initial odds, the total outcome would have been a profit of £2320.

Of course, a lot of the odds were taken on Betfair, therefore the each-way option may have been slightly lower, however a simple lay off once the player reaches the final amounts to more or less the same thing in any case. Overall then, not a bad few months on the outright wagers!

Time for a well-earned break and I shall return refreshed and invigorated for Adelaide in January.

Monday, 29 October 2007

Basel, Lyon & St Petersburg wrap and Paris advice

A very pleasing week comes to an end, with profits galore at all three ATP tournaments and a bank balance that is returning to it's heady pre-US Open heights, just as the season winds down.

In Basel, Roger Federer retained his Swiss Open title at the tournament where he was a ball boy in his youth. A bloodless straight sets victory over Jarkko Nieminen in the final represented Fed's eighth consecutive victory over the Finn (16 sets in a row) and a return on my 10 point wager at 1.5 with Boylesports.

Over in St Petersburg it was an eventful week to say the least. Andy Murray lifted the sizable trophy after coming from matchpoint down against Youzhny in the semi's to record a finals day win over Fernando Verdasco in straight sets.

The final was perfect for me, having advised and backed both players pre-tournament and a very nice profit of 15 points was the outcome.

The St Petersburg event was a controversial one however, with some extremely questionable matches taking place - notably Tursunov v Pashanski, where Tursunov was being backed to the hilt at 1.2 despite being a set and a break down! The result? Why, a Tursunov comeback victory of course...'They' knew.

Barely a week goes by these days without Nikolay Davydenko making headlines, this time it was for receiving a code violation and a fine for 'not giving best effort' in his match against Marin Cilic. Having written about this elsewhere http://tennisgurunews.blogspot.com/2007/10/davydenko-in-spotlight-again.html, I'll move on swiftly to the Lyon tournament.

My man in Lyon, Marc Gicquel, made it to the final at the nice price of 30 and with each seeded player falling early, the final against Seb Grosjean allowed an easy lay opportunity, which I took for an all-profit outcome. My initial investment of 1.5 points showed a profit of 10 points and the week in total showed a green of 30 points.

On to this week and the final Masters Series event of the year in Paris sees a rather lopsided draw and an opportunity for the much maligned (and rightly so) Davydenko to answer his many critics on the tennis court.

The Russian defending champ, has by far the easiest draw and I snapped up the 51 on offer from Sporting Odds on Saturday. The price is now down as low as 13 with some high street layers and I wouldn't touch that, but 50 is about right for a 1.5 point wager on a player whose mental state can only be estimated, along with his ethics.

I'm going with the theory that Davydenko will look to produce a good show as defending champ and the draw couldn't be kinder, given the fact that Federer has Karlovic, Nalbandian, Berdych, Murray, Djokovic, Gasquet and Blake in his section and will be tired after his two long weeks. Davy by comparison has only the likes of Ljubicic, Canas and Robredo in his quarter and only a clearly jaded Nadal of any note in his half, given the poor recent form of Haas and Gonzalez, so if (and it's a big if) the Russian can be bothered this week, he has an outstanding chance.

Wednesday, 24 October 2007

Basel, St Petersburg & Lyon advice

The end of the tennis season always brings up a few unlikely results, but I managed to escape with a very healthy profit from Zurich and Madrid last week, largely thanks to Justine Henin and there are a few opportunities this week in which to reinvest those winnings.

The first wager that stands out for value seekers on Betfair is Fernando Verdasco outright in St Petersburg.

The top of the draw looks very weak in comparison to the bottom half, with only a potentially injured and as yet unnappeared Nikolay Davydenko to worry about and 14 looks a generous lay, particularly considering the high street layers are only offering 9.

Verdasco almost took out Djokovic last week in Madrid and has that huge lefty forehand in prime condition just now, so it's worth chancing that Davydenko won't make it to the semi's and taking that 14 on offer about the Spaniard.

The tougher bottom half appears to hold great opportunities for two players coming back from injury, in Murray and Ancic and I've had my share of the Scot at 5 and the Croat at 7. These two should contest the semi in the form they are in and both won in straight sets yesterday.

Over in Basel, I've had an investment in Federer at 1.5, with a small back up on Paul-Henri Mathieu at 34 in the easier bottom half of the draw. It seems unlikely that Federer will lose twice in a fortnight and in his home town, where he is defending champ, so a back to lay seemed like a sensible bet.

In Lyon, local specialist Marc Gicquel has an outstanding chance in the only tournament where he play well and his first round straight sets win over Robredo was no surprise. The bottom half looks weak and at 30 a wager on Gicquel looks the call.

Of the first round matches, I would pay good money to watch Santoro play Roddick and don't be surprised if The Magician has a trick or two still left up his sleeve for A-Rod.

Thursday, 18 October 2007

ATP Masters Madrid - The story so far

The temperature in the race for the final available berths for the end of season jolly in Shanghai was raised a couple of notches in Madrid this week and that combined with competing at altitude in Europe's highest capital led to a flurry of early casualties.

With half of the places already allocated and another two appearing reserved for Roddick and Ferrer, the remaining positions could conceivably be taken by anyone currently in the top twenty, bar the injured Lleyton Hewitt, so close are the players in the rankings.

The top 16 seeded competitors all received byes into the second round and many will now wish they hadn't, as 10 of them went out in the second round and another, Nikolay Davydenko, retired through injury.

All of which leaves the week's most impressive performer thus far, Andy Murray, in with an outside chance of reaching Shanghai and a great chance of revenge over Rafael Nadal tonight in what promises to be a classic encounter.

With so many of his rivals faltering, if Murray does overcome Nadal et al it is conceivable that he would move into the top 10 with two tournaments left in which to accrue ranking points. The manner of his two victories this week suggests that after a difficult rehabilitation from a wrist injury, he is now at peak fitness and crucially the forehand is back in business, as Stepanek and Chela will testify.

Sky's commentator-less interactive coverage combined with a distinct lack of spectators on Court Alcala this week has meant that every exchange between players and officials could be heard in full and there have been a few feisty incidents of note this week.

First to lose the plot was (not for the first time) Jurgen Melzer in his first round match with Ginepri. After cruising the first set against a slow starting Ginepri, Melzer was on the receiving end of some questionable calls and went into meltdown in the second set breaker after a poor overrule from the umpire gave Ginepri an unassailable advantage.

Melzer's racquet bore the brunt and bizarrely he tried to fix it whilst Ginepri was waiting to serve and the Austrian received a code violation for time wasting, at which point I genuinely believed that Melzer was about to burst into tears. Instead, he lost the set and went for a lengthy comfort break before losing the match in a third set which saw almost constant muttering and complaining from one of a band of temperamental Austrian players. Compatriot, Stafan Koubek was thrown out of a tournament recently for similar antics.

American, Mardy Fish, was next to have Sky reaching for the mute button, as he threatened to "kick his (Paul-Henri Mathieu's) fu***ng ass" in an unusual altercation during the second set of their first round encounter.

After winning the first set, the Frenchman was a couple of breaks down in the second set when he took what Fish perceived to be a tactical injury timeout and the players came together, alongside the umpire at the net after Mathieu had disputed a line call.

Fish's expletive ridden tirade was mainly to the umpire, who tried unsuccessfully to defend Mathieu's sportmanship and the Frenchman wisely retreated to the baseline to lose the set, but take the match in the decider.

On the betting front, successful wagers on Murray (twice), Ancic, Nalbandian and Del Potro led to a handy profit, which was somewhat dented by Gasquet's loss to Mathieu yesterday.

I'm going to have an interest in Murray, Ancic and possibly Nalbandian today and my main investments this week, rather unoriginally on Federer and Henin, play their respective matches today also.