Another day, another defeat and just at the moment, my individual match bet record looks about as favourable as Thaksin Shinawatra's record on human rights. Most shockingly of all, I am even being outgunned by the RP!
Yes, Hyung-Taik Lee lost a three setter to Stanislas Wawrinka in the first round today and I had placed a two and a half point wager on the Korean in the assumption of victory. I was most disappointed with Lee's 6-1 capitulation in the decider and can only conclude that he's burnt himself out by playing too many tournaments.
This is poor form though and I think I might watch a few games here in Montreal before diving in on another match bet, although I do like the look of Soderling to take out an out of sorts Safin in their first rounder at just shy of evens.
Fortunately for me, my great run in outright betting is keeping me afloat and I have managed to obtain decent three figure prices on Baghdatis and Canas and big prices on Haas and Murray also. The surprise defeat of Tomas Berdych today will help Baghdatis and if he takes out Moya tomorrow, I expect a good run for my money from the popular Cypriot.
Monday, 6 August 2007
Washington & Poland wrap
A disappointing week for tennis ended in similar fashion for myself, as any chance of profit was wiped out on Sunday.
Jose Acasuso lost his way in the Poland final against Tommy Robredo and went down in straight sets, but not before I had the chance to back Robredo at a good price and add some much needed funds to the bank balance. Acasuso went on to lose the second set by way of the dreaded bagel and he'll have to hope that he's done enough to stay in the top 100 after missing out in Montreal this week.
Over in Washington, some ridiculous serving combined with awful backhand ground strokes and possibly the easiest smash miss that I have ever witnessed, combined to deny beanpole John Isner the chance of a dream win in the Legg Mason Classic.
I was hoping that Isner would sneak the first on a breaker and I could then get on Roddick, but that didn't happen and A-Rod added another title to his roll of honour in straight sets.
So, in total I'm 5 points down on the week and hoping for a better week in Montreal.
Jose Acasuso lost his way in the Poland final against Tommy Robredo and went down in straight sets, but not before I had the chance to back Robredo at a good price and add some much needed funds to the bank balance. Acasuso went on to lose the second set by way of the dreaded bagel and he'll have to hope that he's done enough to stay in the top 100 after missing out in Montreal this week.
Over in Washington, some ridiculous serving combined with awful backhand ground strokes and possibly the easiest smash miss that I have ever witnessed, combined to deny beanpole John Isner the chance of a dream win in the Legg Mason Classic.
I was hoping that Isner would sneak the first on a breaker and I could then get on Roddick, but that didn't happen and A-Rod added another title to his roll of honour in straight sets.
So, in total I'm 5 points down on the week and hoping for a better week in Montreal.
Sunday, 5 August 2007
Roger's Masters?
Finally, the red dirt is no more and quite frankly I am as happy to see the back of it as Gordon Brown was to see the back of Tony Blair.
Hopefully this week we'll see some proper tennis - i.e. no fixed matches or contests dictated by the serves of giants. We have just the one tournament to concentrate on and it's the Rogers Cup on hard in Montreal, an ATP Masters Series event and one which has all of the world's top stars on display.
Considering the fact that all of 2007's Grand Slams and Masters Series events have been won by either Federer or Nadal, with the exception of one, and 18 of the last 20 Masters, it would be easy to assume that this one will result in a victory for the Swiss or the Majorcan. The other Masters event this year incidentally was won by world number three Djokovic, so it's fair to say that in the big tournaments, class tells.
Looking at the draw is never a great deal of use in Masters events, as there is quality everywhere in the field, so I have been concentrating on alternatives to the big two. My conclusion was to have a small bet of one point on Richard Gasquet, as I managed to bag 50-1 on Betfair, with a few half point bets being added to that in the event of someone matching a big price on any of Haas, Murray, Canas or Baghdatis. These are the big match players with the best chances, but I won't be getting involved unless I find three figure prices or thereabouts. Gasquet was runner up here last year and I'm hoping that his semi-final performance at Wimbledon will give him a boost to go well again here this year.
With so much depending on Federer's performance, it makes sense to keep stakes to a minimum and hope that Karlovic can catch the Swiss cold in his first round match with a barrage of aces and unreturnables, or perhaps Murray or Blake later on. This is all guesswork really, but the main profit opportunity this week will be the individual match bets and I like the look of Hyung-Taik Lee today to take out Stanislas Wawrinka at around 4-5.
Hopefully this week we'll see some proper tennis - i.e. no fixed matches or contests dictated by the serves of giants. We have just the one tournament to concentrate on and it's the Rogers Cup on hard in Montreal, an ATP Masters Series event and one which has all of the world's top stars on display.
Considering the fact that all of 2007's Grand Slams and Masters Series events have been won by either Federer or Nadal, with the exception of one, and 18 of the last 20 Masters, it would be easy to assume that this one will result in a victory for the Swiss or the Majorcan. The other Masters event this year incidentally was won by world number three Djokovic, so it's fair to say that in the big tournaments, class tells.
Looking at the draw is never a great deal of use in Masters events, as there is quality everywhere in the field, so I have been concentrating on alternatives to the big two. My conclusion was to have a small bet of one point on Richard Gasquet, as I managed to bag 50-1 on Betfair, with a few half point bets being added to that in the event of someone matching a big price on any of Haas, Murray, Canas or Baghdatis. These are the big match players with the best chances, but I won't be getting involved unless I find three figure prices or thereabouts. Gasquet was runner up here last year and I'm hoping that his semi-final performance at Wimbledon will give him a boost to go well again here this year.
With so much depending on Federer's performance, it makes sense to keep stakes to a minimum and hope that Karlovic can catch the Swiss cold in his first round match with a barrage of aces and unreturnables, or perhaps Murray or Blake later on. This is all guesswork really, but the main profit opportunity this week will be the individual match bets and I like the look of Hyung-Taik Lee today to take out Stanislas Wawrinka at around 4-5.
Washington & Poland - Finals Day
The furore regarding the match fixing has reached the broadsheets and doubtless there will be a feature or two in today's Sunday's about questionable matches. The publishers should give me a call, I could load them up with info.
Anyway, back to the tennis and thanks to a little bit of skill and some good fortune, I again am blessed with two representatives in the two finals taking place today.
My outside bet, Jose Acasuso, thrashed a disillusioned and tetchy Albert Montanes, 6-2, 6-1 in one of the most one-sided semi finals I can recall yesterday over in Poland and thanks to the other semi being a very low quality affair, I can lay off for an all ways profit.
Usually, it would be expected that Tommy Robredo would start as favourite against Jose Acasuso, but he has laboured badly in this event and it looks likely that we will have joint faves by the time the match begins, which gives me a chance to trade up into profit.
In Washington, I caught a break by backing US giant, John Isner, at 20-1 during the first set of his victory over my tip, Tommy Haas, and Isner has made the final where he will face Andy Roddick.
A very disgruntled Haas said after his final set breaker defeat that "anyone over 6 feet 6 inches should be banned from the tour" and after watching last nights semi finals on Eurosport, he has a valid point.
Roddick prevailed over another giant, Ivo Karlovic by way of two tie breaks and Isner came through against Gael Monfils in three tie breaks. Washington has become a contest of the tallest man with the biggest serve wins and it's so dull to watch that I fell asleep after the first set of Isner v Monfils and left a lay of Isner at 11-2 up with Betfair, which was of course taken when he won. Am guessing though that the final may involve the odd tie break and so I will be able to profit from the Washington event, albeit a small profit after the defeat of Haas. I guess I made the mistake of thinking that there may be some tennis played in between serves.
So, we have Acasuso v Robredo at lunchtime, followed by the Charity Shield (sorry, the Community Shield) afterwards and an insomniacs dream of a Washington final tonight. Not a bad day's opportunities and a chance to end the week ahead with only the Masters event in Canada next week to play with, which will be a tough one to call. They don't call it the Rogers Cup for nothing.
Anyway, back to the tennis and thanks to a little bit of skill and some good fortune, I again am blessed with two representatives in the two finals taking place today.
My outside bet, Jose Acasuso, thrashed a disillusioned and tetchy Albert Montanes, 6-2, 6-1 in one of the most one-sided semi finals I can recall yesterday over in Poland and thanks to the other semi being a very low quality affair, I can lay off for an all ways profit.
Usually, it would be expected that Tommy Robredo would start as favourite against Jose Acasuso, but he has laboured badly in this event and it looks likely that we will have joint faves by the time the match begins, which gives me a chance to trade up into profit.
In Washington, I caught a break by backing US giant, John Isner, at 20-1 during the first set of his victory over my tip, Tommy Haas, and Isner has made the final where he will face Andy Roddick.
A very disgruntled Haas said after his final set breaker defeat that "anyone over 6 feet 6 inches should be banned from the tour" and after watching last nights semi finals on Eurosport, he has a valid point.
Roddick prevailed over another giant, Ivo Karlovic by way of two tie breaks and Isner came through against Gael Monfils in three tie breaks. Washington has become a contest of the tallest man with the biggest serve wins and it's so dull to watch that I fell asleep after the first set of Isner v Monfils and left a lay of Isner at 11-2 up with Betfair, which was of course taken when he won. Am guessing though that the final may involve the odd tie break and so I will be able to profit from the Washington event, albeit a small profit after the defeat of Haas. I guess I made the mistake of thinking that there may be some tennis played in between serves.
So, we have Acasuso v Robredo at lunchtime, followed by the Charity Shield (sorry, the Community Shield) afterwards and an insomniacs dream of a Washington final tonight. Not a bad day's opportunities and a chance to end the week ahead with only the Masters event in Canada next week to play with, which will be a tough one to call. They don't call it the Rogers Cup for nothing.
Friday, 3 August 2007
Washington & Poland - Beyond a joke
After yesterday's Davydenko disgrace in Sopot, which even made the back page of the Evening Standard under the headline 'scandal hits tennis world', one would be entitled to believe that one of the players involved, Martin Vassallo Arguello, would not be dumb enough to try it on again the very next day!
Well, his quarter final match up against Albert Montanes was looking like one way traffic for Vassallo Arguello with the score at 6-2, 4-1 and what do we see the prices at? It should have been about 1-6 on Vassallo Arguello, but curiously his price was a shade of odds on! For a guy a set and two breaks up to be just slightly odds-on is ridiculous and sure enough a wedge of cash came in for Montanes, who coincidentally happened to win the match from that point by the scoreline of 2-6, 6-4, 6-2 and all the while his price was incredibly short. Disgusting and another really poor advert for tennis.
Regarding the matches that appeared to be straight, of which there were few this week it appears, I didn't need to have any individual match bets, as my two remaining bets in Poland were in action today and Jose Acasuso did the business for me in straight sets against Florian Mayer and he now faces Montanes in the semi's. The big Argentine has a perfect 5-0 record in all events against Montanes and he won't get a better chance than this to salvage his ATP ranking and win me some loot at the same time.
My other bet, Igor Andreev, went down in straight sets to Gilles Simon and yet again, the Russian has flattered to deceive in these small tournaments, leaving me in the unenviable position of having to rely on Acasuso for this week's Poland profit.
Over in Washington, where the matches seem relatively normal, the stupidly tall serving machine that is John Isner gave Tommy Haas a barrage of aces in their quarter final match. Isner has been unbelievable all week on serve and I think Henman is the only player to have broken his serve here and that was only once. Most of his sets go to breakers and Haas saved a match point in the second set breaker before winning it 8-6 to set up a decider. Sadly for my bet, Isner took it, however I did have a saver on Isner for the tournament at 20-1 after the first set when it looked like being a tough night for Haas, so I'm still in the game in Washington.
Well, his quarter final match up against Albert Montanes was looking like one way traffic for Vassallo Arguello with the score at 6-2, 4-1 and what do we see the prices at? It should have been about 1-6 on Vassallo Arguello, but curiously his price was a shade of odds on! For a guy a set and two breaks up to be just slightly odds-on is ridiculous and sure enough a wedge of cash came in for Montanes, who coincidentally happened to win the match from that point by the scoreline of 2-6, 6-4, 6-2 and all the while his price was incredibly short. Disgusting and another really poor advert for tennis.
Regarding the matches that appeared to be straight, of which there were few this week it appears, I didn't need to have any individual match bets, as my two remaining bets in Poland were in action today and Jose Acasuso did the business for me in straight sets against Florian Mayer and he now faces Montanes in the semi's. The big Argentine has a perfect 5-0 record in all events against Montanes and he won't get a better chance than this to salvage his ATP ranking and win me some loot at the same time.
My other bet, Igor Andreev, went down in straight sets to Gilles Simon and yet again, the Russian has flattered to deceive in these small tournaments, leaving me in the unenviable position of having to rely on Acasuso for this week's Poland profit.
Over in Washington, where the matches seem relatively normal, the stupidly tall serving machine that is John Isner gave Tommy Haas a barrage of aces in their quarter final match. Isner has been unbelievable all week on serve and I think Henman is the only player to have broken his serve here and that was only once. Most of his sets go to breakers and Haas saved a match point in the second set breaker before winning it 8-6 to set up a decider. Sadly for my bet, Isner took it, however I did have a saver on Isner for the tournament at 20-1 after the first set when it looked like being a tough night for Haas, so I'm still in the game in Washington.
Thursday, 2 August 2007
Washington & Poland - A dark day for tennis
Thursday, August 2nd was a day that many will remember for a long time to come for all the wrong reasons. As has been reported in the media, the tennis authorities are supposedly launching an investigation into the disgraceful betting patterns on the Davydenko v Vassello Arguello match in Poland.
I happened to be following this match, both the betting beforehand and the live stream from Poland and this is what happened: -
Davydenko's odds shifted from around 1-4 (which you would expect him to be against a much lower ranked opponent) to around 6-4 against before the players had even emerged from the locker room and rumours were rife on the betting forums that Davydenko would throw this match.
The Russian's price contunued to ease out from 6-4 to over 2-1 after he won the first set by six games to 2. Now, a player ranked number four in the world and defending tournament champion wins the first set easily against a guy ranked in the 80's and his price drifts out. At times during the match, Davydenko was trading at 10-1 and above, even though he was leading the match!
Of course, once the first set has been completed, Betfair will pay out on a result, even if one player retires and predictably enough, a couple of games into the second set, Davydenko, having shown no signs of injury, calls for the trainer and starts wincing in agony over a foot injury. He calls the trainer again twice during the second set, which surprisingly he lost and by this time his opponent's odds were around the 1-10 mark, where they stayed until Davydenko finally quit on his stool after three games of the third set.
The mainstream bookies were running for cover and refused to bet in play on this fixture, having seen the potential carnage and Bet 365 were purely betting on individual games of the match and not the outright result. Of course, most bookies won't pay out on an incomplete match, but there was £3.5 million traded on Betfair, which is a huge amount for a second round match of a minor tournament and it was blindingly obvious that for whatever reason, Davydenko was not going to win this encounter.
It is possible that Davydenko had nothing to do with this, rather his people, knowing that he had an injury decided, very unwisely to lump on Vassello Arguello and begin a betting landslide, where punters spotted free money and flooded the market. However, the Russian, along with several others, such as Volandri, Andreev etc does have a history of highly suspicious matches and quite correctly in my view, Betfair have suspended payments on this match.
I would imagine that Betfair will eventually settle and the ATP's inquiry will result in no findings of foul play, but this sort of thing will eventually ruin the sport if nothing is done to prevent the practice of match fixing, which is much more common than many would like to believe.
I happened to be following this match, both the betting beforehand and the live stream from Poland and this is what happened: -
Davydenko's odds shifted from around 1-4 (which you would expect him to be against a much lower ranked opponent) to around 6-4 against before the players had even emerged from the locker room and rumours were rife on the betting forums that Davydenko would throw this match.
The Russian's price contunued to ease out from 6-4 to over 2-1 after he won the first set by six games to 2. Now, a player ranked number four in the world and defending tournament champion wins the first set easily against a guy ranked in the 80's and his price drifts out. At times during the match, Davydenko was trading at 10-1 and above, even though he was leading the match!
Of course, once the first set has been completed, Betfair will pay out on a result, even if one player retires and predictably enough, a couple of games into the second set, Davydenko, having shown no signs of injury, calls for the trainer and starts wincing in agony over a foot injury. He calls the trainer again twice during the second set, which surprisingly he lost and by this time his opponent's odds were around the 1-10 mark, where they stayed until Davydenko finally quit on his stool after three games of the third set.
The mainstream bookies were running for cover and refused to bet in play on this fixture, having seen the potential carnage and Bet 365 were purely betting on individual games of the match and not the outright result. Of course, most bookies won't pay out on an incomplete match, but there was £3.5 million traded on Betfair, which is a huge amount for a second round match of a minor tournament and it was blindingly obvious that for whatever reason, Davydenko was not going to win this encounter.
It is possible that Davydenko had nothing to do with this, rather his people, knowing that he had an injury decided, very unwisely to lump on Vassello Arguello and begin a betting landslide, where punters spotted free money and flooded the market. However, the Russian, along with several others, such as Volandri, Andreev etc does have a history of highly suspicious matches and quite correctly in my view, Betfair have suspended payments on this match.
I would imagine that Betfair will eventually settle and the ATP's inquiry will result in no findings of foul play, but this sort of thing will eventually ruin the sport if nothing is done to prevent the practice of match fixing, which is much more common than many would like to believe.
Wednesday, 1 August 2007
Washington & Poland - Day 3
Jose Acasuso, Igor Andreev and Tommy Haas. What a trio to have your faith and cash tied up in. It's a bit like waiting for a cheque to turn up 'in the post', betting on any of these three characters; you'd like to think it would turn up and then curse your own naivety when it inevitably doesn't.
Frustrating Argentine, Acasuso, hadn't reached a tour level quarter-final for three months until today, when he reached that stage with a straight sets dismissal of fellow countryman, Sergio Roitman and gave me the opportunity to lay my original bet off and therefore reduce the undoubted pain of watching one of his matches. Acasuso has three ATP titles to his name, but at the moment is in severe danger of dropping out of the top 100 and having to qualify for tournaments in future. He needs a good run here and in Montreal to avert that possibility and I am hoping that this will be his motivation for success in Poland this week. He will next face off against Florian Mayer in a match that may well involve a choke or two with these guys as the participants.
Still on Poland's red dirt, my bottom half of the draw bets are still looking good, as Igor Andreev progressed to the quarters in straight sets this afternoon against local favourite Michal Przysiezny and set himself up with a clash with Gilles Simon, against whom the Russian has never played in a tour event. Andreev will start favourite though and a win might set up a dream semi-final with Steve Darcis. It doesn't pay to get ahead of oneself though, as Darcis has a tough match with Robredo in the morning.
In the US capital, Tim Henman went on to lose his first rounder with American giant, John Isner and I fear for his top 100 place, with Tim being just a single place above Acasuso at 73 in the rankings and on the slide.
Tommy Haas finally begins his campaign in the early hours against Alajandro Falla and I hear that the German is fit and ready to go in this event. There again, I've heard that before...is that the doorbell? That's got to be the postman surely..no?
Frustrating Argentine, Acasuso, hadn't reached a tour level quarter-final for three months until today, when he reached that stage with a straight sets dismissal of fellow countryman, Sergio Roitman and gave me the opportunity to lay my original bet off and therefore reduce the undoubted pain of watching one of his matches. Acasuso has three ATP titles to his name, but at the moment is in severe danger of dropping out of the top 100 and having to qualify for tournaments in future. He needs a good run here and in Montreal to avert that possibility and I am hoping that this will be his motivation for success in Poland this week. He will next face off against Florian Mayer in a match that may well involve a choke or two with these guys as the participants.
Still on Poland's red dirt, my bottom half of the draw bets are still looking good, as Igor Andreev progressed to the quarters in straight sets this afternoon against local favourite Michal Przysiezny and set himself up with a clash with Gilles Simon, against whom the Russian has never played in a tour event. Andreev will start favourite though and a win might set up a dream semi-final with Steve Darcis. It doesn't pay to get ahead of oneself though, as Darcis has a tough match with Robredo in the morning.
In the US capital, Tim Henman went on to lose his first rounder with American giant, John Isner and I fear for his top 100 place, with Tim being just a single place above Acasuso at 73 in the rankings and on the slide.
Tommy Haas finally begins his campaign in the early hours against Alajandro Falla and I hear that the German is fit and ready to go in this event. There again, I've heard that before...is that the doorbell? That's got to be the postman surely..no?
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