Well as far as bad days go, yesterday ranks fairly high on my list. Injuries, illnesses and unfathomable defeats all contributed to a poor day's viewing and a distinctly profit-free tournament thus far in the heat and humidity of Ohio.
Gilles Simon got the ball rolling by hitting the wall after his efforts of the past few weeks and the Frenchman could barely move by the end of his straight sets defeat to James Blake. All of which meant that my wager of the day turned to dust very quickly.
The players are picking up injuries left, right and centre at the moment and goodness knows how they're going to fare in Beijing next week if they think the conditions here are tough!
Both of my remaining outright bets went down in disappointing fashion, starting with David Ferrer, who managed to become Nicolas Lapentti's first top ten ranked victim on hard courts in over five years.
I watched this one live and it was poor from the world number four and Lapentti goes through to the third round in Cincy for the first time in nine years.
Ferrer actually won more points than his opponent, but could only convert three of his eleven break point opportunities and faltered at the vital times.
Speaking of faltering, it's never a shock to hear that word linked to a performance from Richard Gasquet and he surrendered meekly by being bageled in the second set after losing the first on a breaker to Dmitry Tursunov.
Least surprising news of the day was that of the Tommy Haas v Gael Monfils clash ending in a retirement.
In hindsight, my bet of the day should have been that match to end in any other method than a victory for either player. This time it was the Frenchman that quit, citing a stomach problem.
Ferrer's defeat also downed my treble and left me staring into the abyss of a red bank balance, which is never pretty.
I'm sticking to the belief that this was merely an abborition and I have a feeling that Blake might find young Ernests Gulbis a bit too hot to handle this evening, which will put me back on track for the week at around [2.5].
I backed the young Latvian when he took Blake out at Wimbledon and there's no reason why he can't repeat the dose here and send Blake home early.
Gulbis came from match point down to beat Arnaud Clement yesterday and although that was a long match, I think that the price is too good to refuse. Yes, Blake played well yesterday and he has a decent record here, which is why I backed him last year, but I can see Gulbis causing him many more problems than a clearly below par Simon.
Elsewhere, Robin Soderling looks good to take out Philipp Kohlschreiber at [1.57] and Andy Murray [1.41] should prove too good for Tursunov, providing he remains injury free.
That looks a solid double and I might even throw Fernando Verdasco into the mix to beat Lapentti at [1.43], although Novak Djokovic is poor value to defeat Andreas Seppi at [1.18] after his display against another Italian, Simone Bolleli, yesterday.
The best match to watch should prove to be the night match between Haas and Nadal and with the Spaniard complaining bitterly about the schedule, it could prove an interesting evening's viewing.
Thursday, 31 July 2008
Wednesday, 30 July 2008
Cincinnati 2nd Round
Well I'm one down and two to go after the first round was completed in Cincy last night, as Janko Tipsarevic's injury problems continued.
The Serb, who hobbled out of Wimbledon at the hands of Rainer Schuettler last month, struggled with an ankle problem in succumbing to Carlos Moya in straight sets and it looks like he could have long term issues with his fitness to deal with.
It was only a minimum bet though and my other two march on - Gasquet prevailed against Michael Llodra after the French lefty quit with an arm injury in the third set of their first round clash.
The number 11 seed can consider himself fortunate, as he was having one of those Gasquet days and he will need to improve to take out Dmirty Tursunov later tonight.
David Ferrer is also through to face an unexpected second round opponent in Nicolas Lapentti, after the veteran from Ecuador took out in-form Marin Cilic in straight sets.
There appears - on paper at least - little to stand in the way of Ferrer and a semi-final clash with presumably Rafa Nadal now and I'm quite surprised that the Valencian is still available at around the 130 mark.
My only advice from yesterday was Gilles Simon to take out Nicolas Kiefer, but the Frenchman ended up with a somewhat easier task after the German pulled out, so no profit to report from that wager.
There are some tasty looking encounters in the second round today though and I like the look of Simon again, to take out an out of form James Blake at the nice price of 2.70.
The contrast in form between these pair is stark and although Blake likes it here in Cincy, his form in the straight sets thrashing by Kiefer in Toronto was abysmal and Simon's match yesterday will have handed him some valuable court time in these testing humid conditions.
Elsewhere, a treble of Ferrer [1.19], Berdych [1.35] and Gulbis [1.33] should prove profitable.
The Serb, who hobbled out of Wimbledon at the hands of Rainer Schuettler last month, struggled with an ankle problem in succumbing to Carlos Moya in straight sets and it looks like he could have long term issues with his fitness to deal with.
It was only a minimum bet though and my other two march on - Gasquet prevailed against Michael Llodra after the French lefty quit with an arm injury in the third set of their first round clash.
The number 11 seed can consider himself fortunate, as he was having one of those Gasquet days and he will need to improve to take out Dmirty Tursunov later tonight.
David Ferrer is also through to face an unexpected second round opponent in Nicolas Lapentti, after the veteran from Ecuador took out in-form Marin Cilic in straight sets.
There appears - on paper at least - little to stand in the way of Ferrer and a semi-final clash with presumably Rafa Nadal now and I'm quite surprised that the Valencian is still available at around the 130 mark.
My only advice from yesterday was Gilles Simon to take out Nicolas Kiefer, but the Frenchman ended up with a somewhat easier task after the German pulled out, so no profit to report from that wager.
There are some tasty looking encounters in the second round today though and I like the look of Simon again, to take out an out of form James Blake at the nice price of 2.70.
The contrast in form between these pair is stark and although Blake likes it here in Cincy, his form in the straight sets thrashing by Kiefer in Toronto was abysmal and Simon's match yesterday will have handed him some valuable court time in these testing humid conditions.
Elsewhere, a treble of Ferrer [1.19], Berdych [1.35] and Gulbis [1.33] should prove profitable.
Tuesday, 29 July 2008
Cincinnati Masters - Outrights and overview
After the disappointment of Novak Djokovic's exit at the hands of Andy Murray in Toronto, I think it's time to have a small investment in a couple of relative outsiders here in Cincy.
I backed James Blake at around 80 last year and he obliged by making it all the way to the championship match, where the New Yorker was outclassed by Roger Federer in straight sets, but it was a handy profit and I'm going a similar way this year.
With Fed looking all at sea and somewhat shell shocked by the loss of his Wimbledon invincibility and Rafa Nadal surely conserving his considerable energy reserves for the Olympics after winning in Canada, it might be an idea to have a look at a couple of alternatives.
The three that leap out at their current prices are David Ferrer, Richard Gasquet and Janko Tipsarevic.
After a wretched season where once again his desire and fight have been called into question, Gasquet has started to play well of late and was the only player to take a set off Nadal in Toronto.
The Frenchman is in the section of the draw that houses Nikolay Davydenko, Andy Murray and Tipsarevic and on a course for a semi final match with Federer, so 90 is worth chancing on a mercurial talent that surely must reach a Masters final soon.
Ferrer is overpriced at 130 and has little in his section to worry him other than perhaps Marin Cilic and Fernando Verdasco and he would meet Nadal in the semi's should the world number one in waiting get past Germans, Tommy Haas and Benjamin Becker as seems likely.
Nadal's body is more likely to let him down than the Teutonic abilities of his early opponents and Ferrer could be the one to take advantage.
A real longshot could be Janko Tipsarevic at around 300 and the Serb possesses all the ability in the world without perhaps the physical endurance for a sustained effort in the majors.
He was perhaps a bit rusty in Canada when he lost to Nicolas Mahut and he's worth a chance at a big price to upset Moya and Davydenko and if he manages that, then he'll be dangerous.
As far as individual bets are concerned on Tuesday, I like the look of Gilles Simon to avenge last week's loss to Nicolas Kiefer at 2.08 and that's worth an investment.
I backed James Blake at around 80 last year and he obliged by making it all the way to the championship match, where the New Yorker was outclassed by Roger Federer in straight sets, but it was a handy profit and I'm going a similar way this year.
With Fed looking all at sea and somewhat shell shocked by the loss of his Wimbledon invincibility and Rafa Nadal surely conserving his considerable energy reserves for the Olympics after winning in Canada, it might be an idea to have a look at a couple of alternatives.
The three that leap out at their current prices are David Ferrer, Richard Gasquet and Janko Tipsarevic.
After a wretched season where once again his desire and fight have been called into question, Gasquet has started to play well of late and was the only player to take a set off Nadal in Toronto.
The Frenchman is in the section of the draw that houses Nikolay Davydenko, Andy Murray and Tipsarevic and on a course for a semi final match with Federer, so 90 is worth chancing on a mercurial talent that surely must reach a Masters final soon.
Ferrer is overpriced at 130 and has little in his section to worry him other than perhaps Marin Cilic and Fernando Verdasco and he would meet Nadal in the semi's should the world number one in waiting get past Germans, Tommy Haas and Benjamin Becker as seems likely.
Nadal's body is more likely to let him down than the Teutonic abilities of his early opponents and Ferrer could be the one to take advantage.
A real longshot could be Janko Tipsarevic at around 300 and the Serb possesses all the ability in the world without perhaps the physical endurance for a sustained effort in the majors.
He was perhaps a bit rusty in Canada when he lost to Nicolas Mahut and he's worth a chance at a big price to upset Moya and Davydenko and if he manages that, then he'll be dangerous.
As far as individual bets are concerned on Tuesday, I like the look of Gilles Simon to avenge last week's loss to Nicolas Kiefer at 2.08 and that's worth an investment.
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